One of the biggest issues of the Russo-Ukrainian War is the question of Ukraine’s military allegiance. Ukraine envisions a future where it joins NATO and becomes a full-fledged Western-aligned European nation. Moscow, however, wishes for Ukraine to become its ally or, at the very least, remain neutral. Many other NATO states have expressed their own desires to see Ukraine join the military alliance.
There are still numerous barriers preventing Ukraine from joining NATO in the near future, most obviously the current war.
T-84 Tank Ukraine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Theoretically, NATO membership is open to Ukraine, but as long as this option remains on the table, tensions with Russia will always remain high.
Can Ukraine Join NATO?
Under Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty, NATO is open to any European country that can contribute to regional security and uphold democratic principles. Over the last several decades, Ukraine has built extensive ties with NATO through programs such as the Partnership for Peace and joint military exercises, gradually aligning its armed forces with NATO standards.
In recent years, especially since 2022, Ukraine’s military has become highly capable and interoperable with NATO forces, aided by large-scale training programs and Western military assistance.
It has attempted to implement additional reforms throughout the military and other areas of the government to meet anti-corruption standards. NATO further simplified Ukraine’s pathway in 2023 by removing the requirement for a formal Membership Action Plan, eliminating one procedural step that had historically slowed accession.
Challenger 2 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Admitting a Nation Currently at War is a Bad Idea
The most significant barrier to Ukraine’s membership is the ongoing war with Russia. NATO’s core commitment to collective defense would make any country admitted during an active conflict an immediate trigger for alliance-wide military engagement. Given that Russia is a nuclear-armed power, this scenario is widely viewed by NATO governments as an unacceptable risk.
As a result, membership is effectively postponed until the war ends. In addition, unresolved territorial disputes such as Russia’s control over Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine complicate the situation further. Would NATO be required to defend portions of Ukraine currently occupied by Russia, or would the alliance intervene only if Moscow pushes further? These realities mean that as long as large-scale fighting continues or Ukraine’s borders remain contested, accession is highly unlikely.
Not all NATO states are enthusiastic about admitting Ukraine to NATO. Any enlargement decision requires unanimous approval from all current members, giving each state veto power and making the process inherently political. Among post-Soviet states, particularly the Baltic states, Ukrainian membership is incredibly popular, while other Eastern European states, such as Hungary under Orban, have opposed the idea.
Even some Western European nations and the U.S. have sometimes expressed skepticism at the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO, viewing the potential escalation with Russia as too big a security risk. The 2022 Invasion of Ukraine has garnered significant support for Ukraine in the West, but it only takes one state to oppose NATO’s expansion to stall the process indefinitely.
Challenger 1 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Is Ukraine Ready for NATO?
Despite widespread reforms, there are still concerns about corruption within the state and the military. Ukraine has made meaningful progress in strengthening democratic institutions and reforming its defense sector, but it continues to face challenges related to corruption and governance standards that NATO expects from its members. Zelensky has not only refused to hold national elections but has also banned various opposition parties, raising alarm bells among more critical observers. Furthermore, various branches of government and the military have been repeatedly accused of corruption, raising questions about whether Ukraine is even ready for NATO membership.
Russia is the big elephant in the room regarding Ukraine’s NATO prospects. For decades, Moscow has viewed NATO expansion into Ukraine as a serious threat and has explicitly demanded limits on the alliance’s enlargement.
This creates a strategic dilemma for NATO members: admitting Ukraine could strengthen deterrence and reinforce European security, but it could also provoke greater confrontation with Russia and increase the risk of wider conflict.
Some analysts argue that delaying Ukraine’s membership effectively rewards Russian aggression and weakens NATO’s credibility, while others believe that immediate accession would be dangerously destabilizing.
The alliance has so far chosen a middle course, providing extensive military and financial support to Ukraine without extending formal security guarantees.
Ukraine Will Not Join NATO Anytime Soon
All of this raises an important question: should Ukraine abandon its dream of a military alliance with the West in order to end the current War?
On the one hand, Ukraine’s declaration of neutrality would go a long way towards negotiating a meaningful and lasting peace with Russia. This way, Ukraine can maintain good diplomatic and economic ties with the West as it had prior to 2022, but without the security agreements.
Kremlin officials have repeatedly stated that Ukraine’s economic partnerships with the West are no problem for Moscow, but the prospect of NATO bases and personnel on Ukrainian territory is unacceptable. Abandoning NATO membership, or a similar security agreement, would clear one of the many diplomatic hurdles currently stalling negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow.
Challenger 2 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
In fact, in 2025, Ukraine formally gave up its NATO aspirations – but only if it would get security guarantees in a future deal. Despite this, the issues of the annexed territories and Moscow’s view of the current government in Kyiv as illegitimate remain.
Agreeing to no NATO is one thing, but agreeing to Moscow’s other demands would be a political end for Zelensky, even if it helped to bring an end to the war.
Unfortunately, the chances of Ukraine joining the military alliance were always thin due to the strong opposition from Russia. This, combined with opposition from states like Hungary and Slovakia, meant the probability of joining the alliance was low from the start, even before the 2022 invasion.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
