Key Points on Selling B-21 Raider – While selling the B-21 Raider to key allies like Australia or Israel could bolster deterrence against China and Iran, the author argues it’s a bad idea for two primary reasons.
-First, the immense cost—nearly $700 million per aircraft plus support—makes it unaffordable for even wealthy nations to purchase in strategically significant numbers.
-Second, and more importantly, the bomber’s sixth-generation stealth technology is too advanced and sensitive to risk exporting, where it could fall into the wrong hands.
-The more effective strategy is for the U.S. to retain the B-21 exclusively and forward-deploy the bombers to allied bases.
Could the B-21 Raider Be Sold Overseas?
The B-21 Raider stealth bomber should be as good as advertised.
It will have stunning radar evasion, the ability to drop nuclear weapons, and the kind of long range that will enable deep strikes anytime and anywhere. This airplane will enhance the U.S. Air Force and provide the United States with a significant advantage in aerial warfare, while also improving overall strategy, operations, and tactics. One option that few have pondered is whether the United States should export the B-21 Raider to other countries.
Australia Would Like to Buy It
In the past, Australia has been involved under the auspices of the AUKUS trilateral defense and security initiative featuring Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. Australia could make good use of the B-21 as a deterrent against China.
Indeed, a B-21 sale to Canberra would make Beijing apoplectic and keep the Chinese worried about the B-21 being parked closer to China.
Australia could use the sixth-generation bomber as a stopgap until its new submarines come online. The Australian Institute for Public Affairs (IPA) think tank is in favor of buying the B-21.
“Our first policy recommendation is that the government needs an AUKUS Plan B – a strategy which will help to deliver military capability earlier and create a fallback position, in case circumstances mean the nuclear submarines can’t or won’t be delivered,” the IPA stated in a 2024 report. “Our AUKUS Plan B is actually the B-21 Raider strike bomber,” the IPA said.
But the B-21 Raider Is Very Expensive
Affordability would be a significant issue for Australia and other countries interested in purchasing the B-21 Raider. The bomber could cost as much as $692 million each. Then the Americans would have to provide spare parts, components, maintenance support, and weapons. New pilots would need to be trained, and technicians brought up to speed on the B-21.
This may be a bridge too far for the Aussies. The entire Australian defense budget for 2025 is $37 billion. This is record-setting spending, but to afford the B-21, the Australians would have to spend much more – likely another $10 billion. It is highly doubtful the government would be able to raise spending that much, even if the B-21 would be paid for over several years.
Israel Needs the B-21 the Most
The B-21 is cost-prohibitive, and this could be a problem for other countries. The military that needs the B-21 the most is Israel. The country does not have any heavy bombers. It depends on the United States for stealthy deep strike, as evidenced by the latest American bombing mission aimed at Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Israel spends approximately $33 billion per year on defense, which accounts for roughly 9 percent of its GDP.
This is similar to what Australia spends, and the B-21 would be out of reach to buy in great numbers. The Israelis could afford to purchase five bombers and all the necessary support. This would help, but would not be enough to overawe the Iranians. Ten B-21s would be too expensive.
How About Selling It to a European Consortium?
One option would be selling the B-21 to European allies as a group. For example, the airplanes could be sold to a consortium of NATO countries led by the United Kingdom, Germany, and France. The B-21s could then be flagged under NATO. This would be a good solution to deter Russia, but it would still be an expensive proposition. The U.S. Air Force could base B-21s in Europe to support NATO, and this is likely part of a future American strategy plan.
That would work against Russia. Iran would be covered with a sale to Israel, and Australia could use them against China if necessary. These governments would have to turn on the monetary printing presses to afford the B-21.
Another country of interest would be South Korea, which lives in a dangerous neighborhood and has to prepare for war with North Korea and China continually. Cost would be another problem in Seoul. South Korea’s defense budget for 2025 is larger than Australia’s and Israel’s at $48 billion. The South Koreans may be able to afford the B-21 in small numbers.
Keep the B-21 Raider Out of Foreign Hands
The other issue is whether the B-21 Raider should be sold at all. The United States did not sell the B-2 to other countries. It is best not to export the B-21. The technologies are too advanced to share. A sale would help improve alliances and foster better diplomacy, but other countries may simply not be able to afford it anyway. Northrop Grumman would love to sell it overseas, though. The defense contractor would make more money, and unit costs of each marginal airplane built would be reduced, improving Northrop Grumman’s bottom line and stock price.
However, the B-21 is similar to the F-22 in its stealth technology. No one wants the B-21’s stealth qualities to fall into the wrong hands.
The more countries flying the airplane pose espionage risks that Russia, China, North Korea, or Iran could steal design parameters.
Better to keep the B-21 within American shores. It is too expensive for the countries that need it most, and the Americans could easily base it in Europe, the Middle East, Australia, Guam, or Okinawa, giving each region nuclear muscle and deterrence without the need to sell it on the export market.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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