Key Points and Summary on How Ukraine Can Still Win – A new Foreign Affairs essay by Michael Carpenter argues that “Western half-measures have prolonged the war” and Ukraine can still win, but only with a “fundamental shift in Western strategy.”
-This assessment comes amid a series of setbacks for Kyiv, including a US pause on munitions aid and Russia’s capture of a key lithium field. Carpenter refutes the “defeatism” that suggests Ukraine has “no cards” left to play, pointing to impressive victories like Operation Spider’s Web.
-He argues that instead of providing too much aid, the West has provided too little, too late, and a large boost in military and economic pressure now could force a favorable outcome.
Ukraine Has A Chance to Win the War Against Russia
It’s been a few weeks of bad news for Ukraine’s war effort, more than three and a half years after Russia’s initial invasion.
Russia has been ramping up drone attacks, while also making slow advances along the front lines, and recently seized a key lithium field in Eastern Ukraine, one seen as key to Ukraine’s mineral deal with the U.S.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has announced a pause in munitions aid for Ukraine, citing concerns about the state of its own munitions stockpiles.
“Any delay or slowing down in supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities would only encourage the aggressor to continue war and terror, rather than seek peace,” Mariana Betsa, the deputy foreign minister of Ukraine, said in a statement this week.
Russia reacted more positively to the news of the pause.
“The fewer arms supplied to Ukraine, the closer the end of the special military operation will be,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, per Politico.
That said, all hope is not lost for Ukraine. A new essay in Foreign Affairs argues that Ukraine still has a chance to win the war.
The Case for “Decisive Action”
The piece, by Michael Carpenter, is titled “Ukraine Can Still Win: Western Half Measures Have Prolonged the War, but Decisive Action Now Could End It.”
Carpenter notes that while Donald Trump promised on the campaign trail to deliver a quick settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war, no such agreement ever materialized, or came close to reality.
Instead, the war has continued, with Ukraine refusing to give up its sovereignty, while Russia is demanding that Ukraine give up all of its ambitions.
“This conclusion, however, does not mean all is lost. Russia is much weaker economically than many analysts realize, and hard-hitting sanctions and export controls can still cripple its war economy,” Carpenter writes.
“Ukraine is fighting smartly and could turn the tide on the battlefield with more high-end drones, air defense systems, long-range missiles, and munitions. With a change of strategy, Ukraine can still win the war in the near term—if both Europe and the United States decide to give it the assistance it needs.”
That is, however, a big “if,” especially with Trump in power, and NATO appearing to pivot away from Ukraine at its most recent summit, where it appeared the primary agenda of most NATO nations was keeping the American president happy.
The Case Against “Defeatism”
Carpenter points to the infamous Oval Office meeting in February, when Trump and Vice President JD Vance told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, on live television, that he had “no cards” left to play in the war with Russia, as well as the assumption held by many that Putin was “personally invested in keeping Ukraine from becoming a European democracy, no matter the cost.”
But Carpenter disagrees with both presumptions.
“By assigning no agency to Ukraine or its foreign partners, it presumes that Ukrainian victory is a fantasy born of Western delusion, and it is a view that risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he writes. “Both assumptions, meanwhile, rest on an excessively narrow reading of battlefield dynamics and a limited understanding of the policy options available to Ukraine’s backers.”
The author points to “impressive victories” by Ukraine, which include repelling the initial invasion, capturing land in the Kharkiv region, and the recent Operation Spider Web drone attack. The problem, he writes, is that Ukraine has often waited too long for delivery of weapons that have matched what the Russians are throwing at them.
“The truth is precisely the opposite of what the current administration has claimed. Instead of prolonging the war by giving Ukraine too much military assistance, Kyiv’s foreign allies have prolonged it by giving too little, and often with significant delays,” he writes.
“Despite these missteps, victory for Ukraine—minimally defined as preserving its sovereignty and continuing to chart a course toward NATO and EU membership—is still squarely within reach. Achieving it, however, requires a fundamental shift in Western strategy, one that combines a large boost in military assistance with more robust economic measures to constrain Russia’s war economy.”
About the Author:
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter
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