The Road to a $1 Trillion U.S. Defense Budget

Are We Talking About a Trillion Dollars a Year for Defense?: A trillion here and a trillion there. Pretty soon, you are talking about…a big problem.

That is the projected defense budget cost in the coming years—a cool one trillion—and perhaps even more.

AH-64E v6. Image Credit: Industry handout.

In 2022, the defense budget was still only 3 percent of GDP. During the Cold War, it was much higher. So, comparing the level of spending to the size of the economy is a different way to look at it.

But that top-level number is certainly eye-watering.

Even though the United States is not currently in a major shooting war, it is still confronted by the growth of great power and rising power rivalries with China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, plus contingencies in the Middle East. That means more spending is required to keep up.

Let’s examine the reasons for high costs and where the U.S. defense budget could be headed in the years to come, especially in the era of great power competition.

Major Defense Hardware Programs Are What People Criticize the Most

Most people associate defense spending with expensive major-end items, and these are budget busters. Existing programs like the F-35 have been a money pit. New toys such as the B-21 Raider stealth bomber, the newfangled Next-generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter, and the Ford-class aircraft carrier are costly. All acquisition programs cost $146 billion in 2023.

Personnel Costs Are Rampant

Other costs that are not readily apparent are personnel costs for the U.S. military uniformed service and the civilian service for the Pentagon. Salaries are expensive. Healthcare costs for active duty personnel and their families are out of this world. Retirement pensions also have heavy sunken costs in the budget. That’s a total of $184 billion a year and rising.

Parochial Interest Over Defense Jobs and Economic Development

The United States is also doing what it hasn’t done since the Cold War: bringing on new weapons, funding legacy systems, and spending more on research and development—all at once.

Something has to give because congressional lawmakers and politicians of all stripes want defense jobs in their neighborhoods, and that means continued spending on all of the above.

Overseas Operations Are Not Cheap

The Pentagon has other costs. There is a sprawling number of overseas installations and bases, plus new base construction and sustainability on our continent. There is an unending supply of money that goes to special operations forces. There is maintenance of existing weapons. Let’s round up and call that around $55 billion.

Ammunition, missiles, and bombs are expensive. Peacekeeping operations and disaster relief are also part of the budget equation.

Funding Allies for Their Wars

We may not be fighting any major wars, but allies are. Tens of billions of dollars have gone to Ukraine for its war against Russia. Money goes out the door to Israel to fight its war against Hamas. Funds are also required to help Egypt with its defense forces, plus aid to several other countries. The estimated cost is $100 billion.

NRL is currently working with Naval Sea Systems Command, Naval Systems Engineering Directorate, Ship Integrity & Performance Engineering (SEA 05P) to transition the new pigment combination into a military specification. The most recent vessel to receive it was USS George Washington (CVN 73).

What to Do With Old Hardware and Ammunition?

Other costs that people don’t consider are destroying old equipment, storing out-of-date hardware, and placing retired airplanes in a “Boneyard” in Arizona. All of this costs money.

This totals $916 billion in 2023, or 13 percent of the federal budget. That’s twice as much as all of the NATO countries and 40 percent of all spending worldwide. In a few years, it seems sure we will top over $1 trillion.

Cutting the Budget? How?

Where can the United States cut the budget? You may have noticed that I am a military analyst who is often in love with big-ticket military hardware. I can find a reason to fund numerous new programs and sustain legacy weapons. So, I’m probably guilty on the defense acquisition side for an advocate to plus-up spending.

Nobody wants to cut the pay of active-duty or reserve forces. All earn their healthcare, housing, and retirement pensions, and there is no political will to change that. Look for personnel costs to increase every year.

U.S. 5TH FLEET AREA OF OPERATIONS (Aug. 6, 2024) An Aviation Boatswain’s Mate (Handling) signals aircraft on the flight deck of the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71), Aug. 6. Theodore Roosevelt is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations to support maritime security and stability in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. (Official U.S. Navy photo)

To be a world leader, the United States needs to maintain a forward presence worldwide. Treaties require some of this, such as the need for bases in South Korea, like the sprawling Camp Humphreys, which houses a big part of the American presence on the peninsula.

Military R&D Is Important Too

We need research and development, not only for the future of the military but also to sustain the defense industrial base that has spawned great dual-use technological transformations and seed funding for GPS and the Internet.

Many Watchdogs Already Exist

How about cutting waste, fraud, and abuse or ending bad acquisition systems?

Federal government agencies such as the Defense Contract Management Agency and the Government Accountability Office already closely monitor most defense programs. Congress, nonprofits, think tanks, and the defense media also monitor potential overspending.

With the 24/7 internet-driven press oversight and social media, there are few secrets about defense wastefulness and many watchful eyes to shine a light on problems. One could argue that programs should be eliminated early, such as the terrible U.S. Littoral Combat Ship or the questionable V-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft. But these cancellations would not make much of a difference in the overall budget.

Can the United States Back off on Equipment?

A group of non-profits and think tanks are calling for more restraint in foreign policy and fighting American overreach in defense spending. But they have difficulty breaking through the noise in Washington, DC, with so many other domestic problems that need solutions.

A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II aircraft with the Wisconsin Air National Guard’s 115th Fighter Wing ascends into the clouds during exercise Northern Lightning Aug. 9, 2024, at Volk Field. Wisconsin. The F-35 works in parallel with 4th generation fighters, demonstrating the strength of combined airpower in the face of strategic competition. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Staff Sgt. Constantine Bambakidis)

The Defense Train Keeps Chugging Along

So, the defense train is almost unstoppable. We are in for a penny and in for a pound nowadays. Don’t look for Republicans and Democrats to cut military spending that much. The price is too baked into the system. We are going to see trillion-dollar defense budgets in the coming years, and most people will not even notice. The Federal Reserve Bank can continue to print money to fund the defense budget, and a high deficit is not enough to scare the public off from supporting or ignoring more defense spending. Buckle in for a bumpy ride.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.