The Trump-Putin Alaska Summit is a Dangerous Gamble

PUBLISHED  on August 14, 2025, 11:14 am EDT – Tomorrow, President Donald J. Trump will sit down in Alaska with Russian President Vladimir Putin to try to hammer out a ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine War.

Negotiations will take place without the immediate participation of either Ukrainian government authorities or representatives from Ukraine’s European supporters.

This may be the best chance in a long while to end the war, but there are reasons to doubt that Trump and Putin can come to an accord.

Trump and Putin Meeting in Alaska: The Issues

Three and a half years into the war, a wide gulf of issues continue to separate Ukraine and Russia.

-The territorial problems are simultaneously the most and least tractable issues. Russia has refused to relent in its demand to retain the territory that it has occupied as well as some terrain that Ukraine continues to defend.

Ukraine has refused to consent to the permanent loss of its eastern oblasts, although Kyiv has moderated somewhat, especially regarding territories lost in 2014. The Ukrainian constitution prohibits the cession of territories under duress, but negotiating teams are evidently building out a legal work-around.

-Russia began the war with a lunge for Kyiv that was expected to seize the city and depose the existing government. Although that lunge failed, Moscow has maintained its demand to impose limitations on Ukrainian domestic politics, especially regarding rights of native Russian speakers and limits on the participation of anti-Russian political entities.

Russia has also sought limitations on Ukraine’s ability to conclude security arrangements with its supporters. Most notably, Moscow has sought guarantees from both Kyiv and Brussels that Ukraine will neither seek nor be allowed to join NATO.

-Russia has demanded limitations on the size and sophistication of Ukraine’s armed forces, officially from a motive of self-defense but also so that Moscow can leverage the possibility of a renewed invasion.

-European and American financial institutions have frozen hundreds billions of dollars of Russian money in private and state-owned accounts, billions that Russia would like to see repatriated. Russia has also demanded the relaxation of the sanctions regime imposed at the beginning of the war.

-Ukraine also has a wide range of demands, from the repatriation of Ukrainian children to the payment of reparations to the prosecution of the Russian political leadership and the perpetrators of heavily documented war crimes. For better or worse, none of these issues will be considered in Alaska.

The Dangers

Given the breadth of the differences between Kyiv and Moscow, many worry that the talks will go nowhere.

Novices to diplomacy often assert that there is “no danger to talking,” but in fact, premature and poorly structured negotiations can push peace farther away rather than drawing it closer.

Diplomats are not necessarily peacemakers; they are servants of the national interest, and if peace is not in the interest of the nation, then it cannot be imposed.

Negotiators can “pocket” concessions made in advance, using them as opportunities to shift the playing field rather than a genuine effort to find common ground. Moreover, negotiations conducted under pressure can lead to “insincere” diplomatic engagement that can extend conflicts as readily as end them.

The Russian government has slow-walked negotiations over the course of the year, attempting to demonstrate reasonableness to the international community while continuing to bombard Ukraine.

When Ukraine agreed to a set of conditions imposed by the Trump administration, Russia responded by reiterating its demands rather than relaxing them.

The Trump administration has tried to change Russian calculations by imposing new sanctions and restoring military support for Ukraine, but the sincerity of Russia’s negotiating position remains in doubt.

The Process

We have a minimal understanding of what the negotiation process will entail, given the unconventional nature of the meeting.

The US has promised to consult with Ukraine and European partners following the summit, but it is unclear what sort of input they would have into any final agreement. The meeting on Friday is supposed to be the first of two meetings, with the second meeting contingent upon President Trump’s assessment of Putin’s sincerity.

Moreover, the technical details of establishing a viable ceasefire line, much less managing territorial exchanges, are daunting. Suppose the agreement includes any unwinding of the massive sanctions regime against Russia.

In that case, it will take a considerable amount of time to sort through the legal and economic complexities of de-sanctioning a country. It does not help that President Trump (with the assistance of Elon Musk’s DOGE) has gutted and demoralized the US diplomatic community.

The Stakes

But to offer a bit of optimism, the stakes are very high. Russia has the advantage on the battlefield and in the skies over Ukraine, but the Russian economy is suffering from severe problems and may take years to recover fully. Russia stands to gain significantly from even small steps to rehabilitate its international social and economic standing.

As for Ukraine, Kyiv has already acknowledged that recovering the territory lost in this war (much less in 2014) will be exceedingly difficult given current military realities.

Both countries will suffer significantly from continued fighting, whether Russia can grind Ukraine into gravel or Ukraine can force Russia to grind itself to dust.

About the Author: Dr. Robert Farley, University of Kentucky  

Dr. Robert Farley has taught security and diplomacy courses at the Patterson School since 2005. He received his BS from the University of Oregon in 1997, and his Ph. D. from the University of Washington in 2004. Dr. Farley is the author of Grounded: The Case for Abolishing the United States Air Force (University Press of Kentucky, 2014), the Battleship Book (Wildside, 2016), Patents for Power: Intellectual Property Law and the Diffusion of Military Technology (University of Chicago, 2020), and most recently Waging War with Gold: National Security and the Finance Domain Across the Ages (Lynne Rienner, 2023). He has contributed extensively to a number of journals and magazines, including the National Interest, the Diplomat: APAC, World Politics Review, and the American Prospect. Dr. Farley is also a founder and senior editor of Lawyers, Guns and Money. You can find him on X: @DrFarls. 

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