According to President Donald J. Trump, negotiations with Iran are progressing steadily, with a deal that could allow Iran to retain partial control of the Strait of Hormuz alongside Oman.
Over the last few days, the war in Iran slowed down once again, which, according to the President, was due to ongoing negotiations between the two sides.
Airman 1st Class Tommy Day (left), Senior Airman Phillip Ruiz (center) and Tech. Sgt. Dwayne Bolles prepare to load a BDU-56 bomb on a B-2 Spirit bomber at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, on April 11, 2005. The airmen are Air Force weapons specialists deployed from the 509th Aircraft Maintenance Squadron, Whiteman Air Force Base, Mo.
(DoD photo by Master Sgt. Val Gempis, U.S. Air Force. (Released))
A U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit demonstrates the aircraft’s capabilities during the March Field Air and Space Expo 2018 at March Air Reserve Base, California, April 7, 2018. The March Field Air and Space Expo is celebrating 100 years since March Field was established and 70 years of the U.S. Air Force. (U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Eric Harris)
According to Iranian sources, the U.S. has already made major concessions on Hormuz, but talks still have a long way to go before a deal acceptable to both sides is reached. Of course, take that with a grain of salt.
Meanwhile, reports continue to spread, claiming a critical shortage in long-range weaponry within the U.S. Armed Forces. What happens now?
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
Talks are currently underway to address the Strait of Hormuz issue, Iranian officials told Reuters.
According to them, the U.S. has agreed to hold Iran responsible for all ships entering the Gulf of Oman from Hormuz, but disputes remain over who controls the other side of the Strait.
There are also unresolved questions, like what it even means to “control” traffic on one side or the other.
There is also the issue of fees, as Tehran retains the right to impose tolls on commercial vessels passing through the waterway.
Meanwhile, Gulf States, which rely heavily on Hormuz for their oil exports, have been trying to convince Iran to make payment fees voluntary.
Trump, meanwhile, believes that a deal with Iran could happen soon, potentially even within the next 24 hours.
“It could happen. Tomorrow or the next day,” he said, speaking on Tuesday evening California time. “A lot of progress has been made.”
The U.S. has previously ruled out any deals that would allow Iran to control the Strait or impose fees.
Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the Treasury, echoed the President’s optimism about the prospects of a deal being made soon. He noted that opening the Strait would go a long way toward helping oil prices fall back down. “I would expect the energy prices to settle back down, which… will be good for the entire world,” Bessent said.
A Deal in the Next 24 Hours is Unlikely
While Iranian sources have reported progress on the diplomatic front, Tehran is not nearly as optimistic as the U.S. is.
One troubling indicator is that the U.S. and Iran are still not in direct talks.
Negotiations are still being conducted indirectly, with Oman serving as the mediator. “Talks are continuing, but it is too early to say that a deal with Oman has been finalized,” a senior Iranian source told Reuters.
“The devil is in the details,” another official said.
“A single tweet from Trump could cause the whole thing to collapse.” The war against Iran has thus far followed a fairly predictable rhythm. A surge of violence followed by a brief lull in which a deal is almost reached, which ultimately results in another surge of violence.
Military Power Not Getting Iran to Back Down
Despite the U.S.’ s best efforts, military strength has thus far failed to pressure Tehran into making a favorable deal with Washington.
On Tuesday, Trump threatened to strike Iran hard if it did not agree to a deal soon. “I want to give them every last chance before decapitation. Very tough to do,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “…I’m very proud of the fact that I’ll give people a chance. This is a big move to do an attack that big on a country.”
The U.S. has, in the past, threatened to “strike very hard” at Iran, and yet, despite attacks against nuclear facilities, military sites, and civilian infrastructure, the regime has yet to fold.
With every escalation from the U.S., Tehran has found ways to escalate as well.
With proxies all over the Middle East, Tehran maintains the ability to heat up new fronts in the war, as seen with the reactivation of the Houthis in the Red Sea.
The U.S. Needs to End the War Sooner Rather Than Later
In the background, while talks of an imminent deal continue, reports continue to spread of munitions shortages in the U.S. Armed Forces, particularly in air defense missiles and long-range precision munitions.
CSIS initially reported in May that the U.S. had expended a sizable portion of its air-defense interceptors during Operation Epic Fury.
From March to May, the U.S. used more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles, Patriot interceptors, and JASSM missiles each. Since the collapse of the ceasefire, some estimates indicate that the U.S. has used “virtually all” of its ATACMS and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs).
The Pentagon has denied any reports of munition shortages and insists that it has everything it needs to wage war against Iran.
Only Two Options Left If No Deal
If the U.S. is indeed critically short on long-range munitions, then perhaps there is a reason Trump is so excited about any prospects of a peace deal.
If a settlement is not reached soon, there may be no options left but to: either concede strategic defeat in Iran or, even worse, consider some sort of massive escalation, and yes, that means even the nuclear option could be put on the table.
The fact of the matter is that the U.S. severely underestimated Iran and the resilience of the regime, and is now paying the price.
The best-case scenario is that reports of an upcoming deal are true and that a peaceful settlement is finally achieved. Considering the past trends with this war, however, that is unlikely to occur.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector. The opinions expressed are the author’s own.
