With the midterm elections less than two weeks away and early voting already underway, the polling news remains bad for both President Donald Trump and his party.
The latest polling blow comes from a New York Times/Siena University poll, which found the president’s approval rating has sunk to 36 percent, while 59 percent disapprove of his performance as president, a 23-point spread. This marks a new low for Trump in his second presidency. When the survey includes only registered voters, the president’s approval rating drops to 34 percent.
President Donald J. Trump welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin to Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Anchorage, Alaska, August 15, 2025 (DoD photo by Benjamin Applebaum)
President Donald J. Trump welcomes Russian President Vladimir Putin to Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Anchorage, Alaska, August 15, 2025 (DoD photo by Benjamin Applebaum)
Trump’s approval rating, the report said, has been hurt by “broad disapproval of his handling of the economy, the war in Iran and high gas prices.”
That lack of popularity has also hurt the president’s party, with Democrats opening an 11-point lead on the generic ballot for Congress.
Those numbers mostly align with the RealClearPolitics polling average, which shows Trump with an average approval rating of 38.2 and a disapproval rating of 60.5, for a 22.3-point spread. The RCP average shows Democrats leading on the generic ballot by an average of 8.3 points.
The NYT/Siena poll is included in that average.
Into the Crosstabs
Why are things looking so dire for the president and his party? Namely, the economy. Americans are not happy with the current state of the economy; they blame Trump for it, and they’re not particularly happy about the Iran War either.
That dissatisfaction, the Times said, has “broken into the coalition that elected Mr. Trump to his second term,” with the president underperforming among several demographics where he improved in the 2024 campaign, such as Hispanic voters, younger voters, and men in general.
Trump, after all, ran in 2024 on promises to lower prices and avoid new foreign wars, and has since broken both.
The Times/Siena poll also asked voters how they view the two parties based on how much they trust the party on various issues. Democrats lead by 20 points on health care, 15 points on the cost of living, 14 points on gas prices, 11 points on corruption and artificial intelligence, and 10 points on foreign wars.
Democrats even enjoy an 8-point advantage on immigration, which has been Trump’s strongest issue throughout his time in politics. However, that issue remains a salient concern for Republican voters.
Democrats Unhappy With Democrats
The polling data also noted that many Democratic voters are unhappy with their own party, after a two-year stretch in which the GOP has had a trifecta, and Democrats have been largely sidelined.
Democrats are deeply demoralized after the 2024 loss, which has led to considerable fundraising woes for the party, among other things, as many on the left side of the party object to the policies of the center, and vice versa.
The Times poll found that only 28 percent of voters overall say they are satisfied with the Democratic Party, and that “much of the unhappiness stems from Democratic voters themselves.”
A full 43 percent of Democratic voters say they are unsatisfied with their party, while 16 percent of Republicans say so about theirs.
The Senate State of Play
Even so, data cited by The Conversation, which cited Nate Silver, suggests Democrats are clearly favored to win control of at least the House in next month’s election, and possibly the Senate as well. According to Silver’s data from earlier this week, Democrats lead in Senate polls.
“If polls are basically right nationally, Democrats have an 88% chance to win the Senate, with an average of 52.4 senators,” The Conversation said, though it noted those chances will drop if many polls overstate Democratic support. The Senate is currently 53-47 in Republicans’ favor.
The main contested Senate races are in Michigan, Georgia, Alaska, Maine, New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, but because of the GOP’s unpopularity, Democrats have made races competitive in red states like Kansas, Nebraska, and even South Carolina, where no Democrat has won a Senate race in many election cycles. Trump has even visited some of those states to campaign, including a trip to Kansas earlier this week.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
