Many political observers, including James Carville, who once strategized Bill Clinton’s Democratic presidential victory in 1992, have been baffled by President Donald Trump’s midterm strategy.
In a year expected to deliver a backlash against the unpopular president’s party, Trump has put himself front and center, telling voters to act like he’s on the ballot and even holding a rare midterm convention last month. Sure, he’s underwater on approval ratings, as is his party, but Trump has made it clear he doesn’t trust those polls.
Donald Trump Speaking at CPAC. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Donald Trump in 2021. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The GOP has been suffering this year from the political effects of still-high gas prices and the otherwise high cost of living, while the Iran War has remained unpopular.
Segments of the president’s base have lost faith in him, especially after he ran for president vowing both to bring down inflation and to keep America out of open-ended foreign wars.
Per the RealClearPolitics average, Trump now has an approval rating of 37.6 percent and a disapproval rating of 60.2 percent, a spread of 22.6, which is just off the all-time low for his second presidency. On the same site’s generic ballot, Democrats lead Republicans by 7.9 points.
A Democratic recapture of Congress would make it harder for Trump to pass legislation or confirm appointees in the second half of his term, while also giving Democrats more power to investigate his administration.
James Carville’s Take
Carville, who has mostly criticized what he calls the Democratic Party’s leftward tilt over the last couple of years, criticized Trump’s strategy in an interview this week on the “Politics War Room” podcast, turning his ire on the president.
Per The Hill, Carville said that Trump’s recent actions are indistinguishable from what he would do if he were “trying to lose.” Carville pointed to the president’s casual comments, at a recent rally, about the potential nuclear destruction of Los Angeles and San Diego, should Iran acquire a nuclear weapon.
Trump has also promised, both last month and this month, $5,000 checks for all adult American citizens if Republicans keep both houses of Congress.
However, it’s widely seen as unlikely he can deliver on such a promise, which is surprisingly unpopular for a proposal that involves free money.
Nothing Trump has been doing on the trail, Carville said, is “consistent with trying to win,” and the pundit went on to question whether Trump actually hates the Congressional Republicans, or is trying to “screw” them. Carville added that he wasn’t sure what exactly explains Trump’s behavior, and that he might be “out of his… mind.”
Trump has also sometimes insulted the very candidates that he’s come to campaign for, including Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton.
“I’m not sure if I like your look, I’m not sure if I like the way you dress,” Trump said of Paxton during the midterm convention last month, held in Paxton’s home state of Texas. “I don’t like the way you talk.’” Paxton’s campaign, for its part, has had multiple recordings leak in which the candidate says Trump isn’t helping and that his numbers have dropped significantly since the midterm convention.
The White House Responds
When asked by The Hill to comment on Carville’s election commentary, White House Spokesman Davis Ingle delivered the type of schoolyard insults typically aimed at critical Democrats in such situations. Ingle called Carville “a stone-cold loser,” one who “suffers from a severe and incurable disease known as Trump Derangement Syndrome.”
What’s Going to Happen?
According to Decision Desk HQ, which measures electoral odds and calls races, Democrats have a 76 percent chance of winning control of the House of Representatives.
In the Senate, Democrats are also favored to win back control, though their chances are narrower: Decision Desk sees Democrats with a 57 percent chance of gaining Senate control in November.
On the Senate side, DDHQ sees the Senate races in Iowa, Ohio, Maine, and Texas — all currently Republican-held seats — as toss-ups, with Democrats favored to win races in Alaska and Michigan.
Aside from Maine, where Kamala Harris won three of four congressional districts, Trump won all of those states in 2024.
Nate Silver’s forecast, meanwhile, sees Democrats’ chances of retaking both houses of Congress at “new cycle highs,” as of Thursday.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has written thousands of articles on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
