Key Points and Summary – President Trump’s shifting rhetoric and actions are creating significant uncertainty about the future of US support for Ukraine. After failing to deliver on his promise to end the war quickly, Trump has signaled impatience, comparing the conflict to “two young children fighting in the park.”
-While the US remains Ukraine’s single largest military backer, a recent ABC News analysis highlights that aid appears to be drying up, with the administration slow-rolling billions in previously earmarked funds.
-Experts believe that while a total US pullout would make the situation more difficult, Ukraine could potentially sustain its defense if European allies step in to finance arms purchases.
Can Europe Keep Funding Ukraine’s War if the US Pulls Back?
Ukraine, after more than three years, continues to fight Russia on the battlefield, defend its land, and even launch major offensive operations like the recent Operation Spider’s Web.
There has been little in the way of progress on a diplomatic solution to the conflict, so the fighting has continued with almost no sign of wrapping up.
One problem facing Ukraine, however, is the threat of the US altogether dropping support for the war effort.
ABC News looked at that question this week.
“Fighting in the Park”
“Sometimes you see two young children fighting in the park,” Trump said in early June about the status of the war at that point. “Sometimes you’re better off letting them fight more before you pull them apart.”
Trump had spent much of his 2024 campaign promising to end the war, sometimes vowing to do so on his first day in office. In February, he berated President Zelenskyy in front of TV cameras in the Oval Office, pushing him to make peace with Russia.
Not only did that not happen, but Trump indicated he is tired of the situation. He initially discussed wanting the Vatican to supervise peace talks, and when the talks took place, they occurred in Istanbul.
And that brings up another issue: The US, under the Biden Administration, strongly backed Ukraine and led the international community in providing Ukraine with weapons and aid. They also imposed numerous rounds of sanctions on Russia.
There was a period in 2023 and 2024 when no new aid was passed for several months due to disagreements between the Biden Administration and Republicans in Congress. However, a package did pass in April of 2024, before the end of Biden’s term.
According to ABC, that aid threatens to dry up, although exactly when is unclear.
“In practice and rhetoric, American aid to Ukraine appears to be drying up,” the ABC report said. “The administration approved a $50 million sale of military aid to Ukraine in April, but only after Kyiv signed off on a controversial minerals sharing deal. But the White House is also yet to dip into some $3.9 billion earmarked to fund military aid to Ukraine—to be drawn from existing US stocks, meaning it can be delivered quickly—that Biden was not able to spend before the end of his term.”
No, not all of Ukraine’s weaponry is provided by the US. Zelenskyy has said that 30 percent of Ukrainian weaponry comes from American aid, while other sources have pegged the number as lower than that.
“Without American weaponry, the situation on the battlefield will of course be more difficult,” Oleksandr Merezhko, an ally in Zelenskyy’s party in parliament, told ABC.
The Total Package
The US has surpassed $130 billion in total aid to Ukraine, including $74 billion in military aid since the war began in 2022, making it the most significant single contributor to Ukraine’s aid. EU nations have contributed a total of $157 billion in aid, of which $73 billion is military aid.
Experts quoted by ABC News agreed that while a pullout of US aid would be difficult for Ukraine, it wouldn’t leave Ukraine completely hopeless.
However, Ukraine is more dependent on the US for certain things, such as air defense, than for others.
Pavel Luzin, an analyst at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts, expressed that sentiment to ABC.
“Europe can pay for the American arms for Ukraine and it has enough money for this,” Luzin told the network. “Ukraine also can pay for the arms using long-term European and/or American loans. Even the Russian frozen assets could be used for this purpose.”
About the Author
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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