Israel-Iran War: ‘Dry Run’ for a Future War with Turkey?

Key Points and Summary – The current war between Israel and Iran, rooted in decades of irreconcilable differences, could be a “dry run” for a future conflict between Israel and Turkey.

-Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is following a similar path as Iran’s ayatollahs: pursuing a domestic military industry, building a nuclear program under a civilian guise, and acting as a state sponsor of terror by supporting groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.

-This trajectory, combined with anti-Israel rhetoric, creates a dangerous parallel.

-The West must avoid repeating its past diplomatic failures with Iran by ignoring the potential threat from Turkey.

Could the Israel-Iran War be a Dry Run for an Israel-Turkey War?

The war between Israel and Iran, countries separated by more than 1,000 miles, represented the failure of more than four decades of diplomacy.

Ever since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini first led “Death to Israel” chants and then his successor Ali Khamenei restarted Iran’s nuclear program in 1989, the events of the last three days have been foreshadowed, if not inevitable.

Both countries have planned for this week’s events. Israel thoroughly compromised the Islamic Republic’s security apparatus and defense establishment.

For the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ top leadership, there was simply no place to hide; Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself is likely operating on borrowed time.

While Khamenei both bragged about the precision of Iranian weaponry, his supposed fatwa against the acquisition of nuclear weapons provided cover for Iranian nuclear scientists to do the opposite.

A generation of diplomats not only failed but their wishful thinking by believing both Iranian reformers had power and that they differed meaningfully on ideology rather than tactics made the current conflict worst. Had they forced Khamenei to drink from the metaphorical “chalice of poison” that Khomeini cited in July 1988 to explain his agreement to a ceasefire with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.

The Turkey Problem

The missiles and drones might still be flying. Still, the West might already be making the same mistake twice by ignoring the reality that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is setting his country down the same path as Khomeini and Khamenei did in Iran.

Erdoğan, like the Iranian supreme leaders, takes public pride in his country’s domestic military industry. And Turkey, like Iran just a few decades ago, now builds a nuclear plant in an earthquake zone ostensibly to generate electricity but also likely to provide cover for a more covert nuclear program. Formal designation or not, Turkey, like Iran before it, is also acting as a state sponsor of terror. Erdoğan has been unapologetic about his support for Hamas, and has even allowed senior Hamas operatives to plan attacks on the Jewish state from their Turkish safe haven.

More recently and quietly, Erdoğan’s regime has helped Hezbollah launder money to continue its terror. In short, as the Islamic Republic’s demise threatens to orphan Hamas and Hezbollah, Erdoğan is stepping in to become their foster parent. Erdoğan’s castigate of Jews and the Jewish state up to and including calls for Israel’s annihilation also parallel Khomeini and Khamenei’s calls to wipe Israel off the face of the map.

The question now is whether the rockets and drones now striking Tel Aviv and Tehran could just years from now fly toward Istanbul and Ankara and whether Turkish warplanes—including U.S. manufactured fighter-jets—take off from Turkish bases to strike at Israel. Indeed, Turkey’s presence in NATO is a complication, but only if NATO actually both recognizes Israel as an aggressor and chooses to implement Article V. Here, NATO’s need for consensus could actually work against Turkey if the United States chooses to wield its de facto veto.

Hopefully, such a scenario will not come to place, but it is essential to both recognize Erdoğan’s true ambition and to confront the possibility head on of an Israel-Turkey war that would be far more destructive to both countries than even the current Israel-Iran war. Rather than assess NATO through the lens of wishful thinking, it is crucial to coerce Turkey away from its current path, using “Maximum Pressure” sanctions if need be.

There simply is no meaningful difference today between President Joe Biden bailing Iran out from first term Trump’s maximum pressure and Trump today embracing and even aiding Erdoğan even as he makes his malign ambitions for the region clear.

About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin

Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics. The views expressed in this opinion article at the authors own.

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