Trump’s Biggest Fear: The ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Goes Up in Flames

What happens if the “Big Beautiful Bill” doesn’t pass? – The presidencies of Joe Biden and Donald Trump don’t have much in common, but they do share one commonality: Both pursued an ambitious legislative agenda, with the initials “BBB,” one that they had great difficulty passing through Congress.

Biden was not able to get what he called “Build Back Better” through the Senate, ultimately settling for a scaled-down version in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act. Now, a similar fate may be awaiting Trump’s very different BBB, which he calls the Big, Beautiful Bill.

Trump and his allies in Congress have been attempting to fold their entire legislative agenda, including tax cuts, spending cuts, and more, into one giant bill.

However, the GOP has had trouble finding the votes, considering that different factions of the Republican caucus have different priorities and a series of deal-breakers.

Big, Beautiful Bill: Where Things Stand Now

As of Tuesday afternoon, Semafor reported, the general belief that Republicans in Congress are afraid to cross Trump has run up against the reality of some elected officials having priorities on which they’re not able to bend. For some, it’s the levels where the SALT cap should be; for others, it’s spending cuts.

One Republican senator, Josh Hawley, wrote an op-ed last week opposing Medicaid cuts.

The current draft, per Semafor, “doesn’t do enough for high-tax-state Republicans, doesn’t cut enough for deficit hawks, and goes too far on Medicaid for plenty of others.”

The bill, per the report, is “now wobbling in the House,” but even if it gets through the House of Representatives, the Senate is likely to rewrite the bill, in such a way that it may not pass the House.

Trump visited Capitol Hill on Tuesday, seeking to move the bill along, but it doesn’t sound like that’s what happened. Trump, per Axios, warned his Congressional colleagues not to “F— with Medicaid,” although Medicaid cuts have been a major component of most versions of the bill. Trump advised the members of Congress to limit the cuts to “waste, fraud, and abuse.”

Trump is also “floating political retribution” against holdouts, while singling out Thomas Massie (R-KY) by name.

“Trying to browbeat us in front of the conference, it wasn’t a smart idea,” Rep. Andrew Garbarino, R-N.Y., part of the SALT caucus, told Semafor. “It just made, I think, the [likelihood] of getting this bill passed harder this week.”

Meanwhile, per Axios, House Speaker Mike Johnson recently met with Senate Republicans and warned them to avoid making big changes to the bill, once it reaches them.

What If It Doesn’t Pass? Trump Should Worry

There’s a chance, a fairly good one, that Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill will go the way of Biden’s, and not pass in anything close to the form that the president wants. Biden’s Build Back Better, after all, passed the House but was not able to get through the Senate.

“Trump is widely expected to strong-arm Republicans into backing the bill, even if it doesn’t check all of their boxes,” a Semafor piece last week said. “And the Senate’s pushback could end up helping: Some Republicans said colleagues argued on the House floor Wednesday that they may as well vote yes if the upper chamber is going to change the bill anyway.”

A version could pass with only some of what Trump wants. Or, the bill, rather one “Big Beautiful Bill,” could be broken into several smaller ones, which is an approach that some in the Senate side would prefer, The Hill reported this week. At the very least, a budget needs to pass, unless Trump would like to spend his whole presidency passing continuing resolutions.

“Several Republican senators say the best way to jump-start the stalled bill would be to break it up into two or three pieces and pass the elements of Trump’s agenda that have the most support in Congress first,” The Hill said of the process that some in the Senate would prefer.

Democrats, however, seem to be cut out of the process entirely.

About the Author:

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter