Are Joe Biden and Blinken Reviving Turkey’s F-35 Deal? Leave it to the White House and State Department to prioritize wishful thinking over strategic reality.
After multiple warnings to Turkey not to purchase Russia’s S-400 anti-aircraft system, the United States removed Turkey from its next-generation F-35 joint strike fighter program. At issue was not just a commercial contract but rather the integrity of NATO systems: Integrating the S-400 into Turkey’s air defense would make NATO operations vulnerable. Even if Turkey firewalled the S-400, the system could still threaten the United States by allowing Turks or hostile powers to practice tracking the American stealth aircraft.
As part of Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s obsequious approach to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he offered the Turkish leader F-16s and F-16 upgrades in exchange for Turkey lifting its de facto veto over Sweden’s NATO accession. The White House’s call to congressional leaders to urge passage of the F-16 deal was shameful, given that Turkey had failed to adhere to its commitment to return the F-35 schematics to the United States.
F-35 Reboot for Turkey?
The apparent movement to resurrect the F-35 deal, reported by the Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet, is bizarre for three additional reasons.
First, Turkey makes no secret of its desire to build its own indigenous weapons industry and does not hesitate to reverse engineer the technology the United States provides it. Erdogan’s son-in-law is Turkey’s top arms magnate. The unofficial Turkey lobby that populates the State Department and permeates Washington think tanks, may down play Turkey’s behavior, but reality is reality.
Second, while Turkey agreed to use its F-16s only for NATO purposes and cease its overflights of Greece, as soon as the F-16 sale was final, Erdogan upped his aggression. Today, Turkey bombs civilian infrastructure in northeastern Syria in pursuit of its anti-Kurdish ethnic cleansing campaign. The bombing of Iraq by Turkish F-16s has started forest fires. On August 23, a Turkish drone killed two journalists in Iraqi Kurdistan, just outside the city of Sulaymani. Most recently, Turkish vessels have interfered with an Italian ship laying a cable for a European Union-funded program to link the energy grids of Cyprus and Crete. While Turkey did not sue its F-16s in all these operations, they enhanced Turkey’s sense of deterrence and led Erdogan to believe he could act with impunity,
Finally, Turkey is a terror sponsor. Its support for Hamas has increased. Turkey’s ambassador to Iran has stated that Turkey should bring both the United States and Israel to its knees. There is simply no difference today between providing Turkey with advanced weaponry and offering Iran the same technologies. In both cases, the regimes will use the weapinry against U.S. interests, if not the interests of the Americans themselves.
A U.S. Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon assigned to the 56th Fighter Wing, Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, flies over Phoenix during the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Nov. 7, 2021. F-16 pilots assigned to the 56th and 944th FW, which train U.S. Air Force F-16 pilots, performed a 4-ship formation flyover at the conclusion of the U.S. National Anthem at the Phoenix Raceway to kick-off the championship race. Luke AFB continually bolsters partnerships with various organizations around Arizona, gaining support from the surrounding community.
Outgoing U.S. ambassador Jeffrey Flake brags about his role in securing the F-16s for Turkey, and seems oblivious about Turkey’s support for Hamas as he argues Turkey should have a greater role in Gaza. His lack of introspection and recognition of the damage Turkey now does in the region is symptomatic of a larger problem.
With such U.S. permissiveness toward Turkey, it should not surprise that Erdogan’s behavior has worsened and that Turkey now accelerates its efforts to undercut regional security in pursuit of Islamists, Russia, and Iran.
The stakes could not be higher. Biden. Blinken, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan promised Congressional leaders the F-16 sale to Turkey would improve U.S. and NATO security. The opposite was true. Rather than acknowledge their mistake, today Turkey may be on the verge of acquiring even more advanced weaponry.
In this partisan era, both Democratic and Republican senators have one thing in common: Each hates being lied to and played for fools by the White House and, in Sullivan’s case, unconfirmed advisors with unbridled power against the backdrop of Biden’s decline.
Congress must call the White House and State Department and make clear: There can be no F-35s for Turkey, no matter how much money Turks and their Azerbaijani vassals spread around Washington’s PR and lobby firms, universities, and think tanks.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the broader Middle East. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. Dr. Rubin is the author, coauthor, and coeditor of several books exploring diplomacy, Iranian history, Arab culture, Kurdish studies, and Shi’ite politics, including “Seven Pillars: What Really Causes Instability in the Middle East?” (AEI Press, 2019); “Kurdistan Rising” (AEI Press, 2016); “Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes” (Encounter Books, 2014); and “Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos” (Palgrave, 2005).
One-World-Order
August 27, 2024 at 9:21 pm
Hmm, f-35 nominally rated very good or outstanding for occasional or sporadic combat missions, but for the comin’ and inevitable ww3, really not too toasty for user. Massive maintenance hog. F-35.
Thus blinken and Sullivan and the like don’t need to waste energy worrying too much about any turk f-35s.
But the time to set up a home or independent state for the Palestinian people HAS COME.
DON’T wait until bibi has exterminated the very last of them before blinken and co decide to do so.
Northern Galilee could be that place. Or eastern half of Cyprus. Or half of Jordan. Which is a british-engineered artificial creation.
But the Biden administration is deliberately dragging its feet to prevent the extinction of the people in order that that the idea of an independent state for them may become moot. Very clever indeed. Muchas gracias !
Tyson Alperovich
August 28, 2024 at 5:31 am
First and foremost it is the US trying to bring Turkey back into the F-35 club. However Turks seem to be convinced now that pursuing their program of developing their own stealth fighter is better in the long run. They have doubts about the benefit of the costly and often malfunctioning F-35s which cannot fly or move without permission from their central computer systems based in the US?
On another note, in early 2000s I remember Mr Rubin was often a guest of honor in gatherings funded by “money Turkey spread around Washington’s PR and lobby firms, universities, and think tanks”. It appears Turks have been outbidden in the D.C. by others.1
Alex
August 28, 2024 at 6:25 pm
President Erdogan is currently developing Turkey’s arsenal to full speed as he sees an opportunity on the horizon. The world is no more run by a single superpower, hence medium-powers have a shot to promote their agenda hopping they have their destiny in their own hands. That is under the conditions, due to Turkish thinking, they become weapons independent. On the other hand F35s are badly needed by Turkey as to erase any air superiority on behalf of Greece/Israel. War over the Aegean Sea will become inevitable in due time as Turkey needs to expand beyond its current borders, the war will be a lasting one, leaving Turkey isolated – damaged- and maybe victorious.
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