PUBLISHED on August 14, 2025, 3:02 PM EDT – Key Points and Summary – Russia’s decision to abandon its moratorium on deploying intermediate-range missiles marks another dangerous step in the complete dismantling of the Cold War arms control architecture.
-This move follows the U.S. withdrawal from the INF and Open Skies treaties, actions that have frayed U.S.-Russia relations and heightened nuclear tensions to their worst levels since the 1980s.
-A series of “bipartisan policy blunders” and the proxy war in Ukraine have pushed the world closer to a nuclear abyss, creating a critical and dangerous challenge for the upcoming Trump-Putin summit.
U.S.-Russia Relations: Back to the Cold War?
On August 5, 2025, the Russian government announced that it would no longer be bound by a self-imposed moratorium on the deployment of medium-range missiles, even those possibly armed with nuclear warheads. Moscow had put the moratorium into effect as a stopgap replacement when the United States decided to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) in August 2019.
Such intermediate-range missiles had always been Russia’s Achilles’ heel, and Kremlin leaders were hypersensitive about their country being at a disadvantage with respect to the possible widespread deployment of such weapons by the United States and its NATO allies.
Washington’s withdrawal from the INF treaty, therefore, was extremely unhelpful, if not blatantly provocative. Moscow’s latest decision, although understandable, has struck yet another blow to bilateral diplomatic cooperation on arms control and will make the world an even more dangerous place.
Pulling the Plug on the INF Treaty
Trashing the INF Treaty was one of several US actions taken throughout the Trump and Biden administrations that have badly weakened the system of formal and informal restraints on strategic weapons. Trump also ended Washington’s adherence to the Open Skies agreement with Moscow in November 2020. The Open Skies measure had assured greater transparency regarding the movement and deployment of bombers and missiles.
The Kremlin saw that agreement as a crucial reassurance against any buildup or threatening conduct featuring US or NATO strategic weapons on Russia’s doorstep in Central or Eastern Europe. Not surprisingly, seeing the agreement’s demise take place in the midst of already deteriorating East-West relations intensified suspicions. It was as though Washington had become determined to repeal the diplomatic legacy of Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev that ended the Cold War.
Washington’s subsequent actions have done nothing to rebut such a conclusion, and Moscow’s patience with the behavior of the United States and its allies has badly frayed. The seemingly inexorable eastward expansion of NATO to Russia’s border exacerbated East-West tensions.
The quarrel over Ukraine’s relationship with NATO became the most damaging factor, since it led to Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine and NATO’s subsequent proxy war using Kyiv’s military forces against Russia.
Adding to the risky overall situation, Moscow and Kyiv have both launched numerous drone and missile attacks on targets in the opposing country.
Strategic Weapons Developments
Developments regarding strategic weapons have been especially worrisome and dangerous. Russian President Vladimir Putin put his country’s nuclear forces on higher alert in February 2022—reversing the posture adopted when the Cold War came to an end. Ukraine engaged in an especially dangerous escalation in late May 2025 when it deployed drones to attack Moscow’s fleet of bombers at three bases deep inside Russia.
Those bombers were an integral part of the Kremlin’s strategic deterrent. Ukraine’s provocation was akin to a Russian military client attacking elements of the US bomber fleet stationed at air bases in Montana or some other locale in the United States.
There are multiple indications that New York Times analyst Neil MacFarquhar was correct when he observed that the “architecture of disarmament and nonproliferation is now gradually being dismantled.” In November 2023, Putin signed a law revoking Russia’s 2000 ratification of the 1996 global Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). In pushing through the de-ratification, Putin said that he wanted to “mirror” the American position. Although the United States signed the treaty in 1996, it never ratified the document. Russia’s move was more symbolic than substantive, but it became yet another gesture that conveyed a message to Washington of growing irritation and impatience.
Fortunately, the 1963 Atmospheric Test Ban Treaty, formally known as the Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT), remains intact, and neither Moscow nor Washington has ever given any indication of an intent to abandon or dilute its adherence to the prohibition against atmospheric tests. Other than the hoary and universally popular PTBT, though, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which caps the number of ICBMs at 1,550 for each side, is the only bilateral nuclear weapons deal between Moscow and Washington still in effect—and even that measure is hanging by a thread. Indeed, Russia’s position is similar to the stance that it had maintained on the “self-imposed moratorium” regarding medium-range missiles. In other words, it could abandon that pledge of restraint at any time—and even do so without notice. Moreover, the treaty is scheduled to expire automatically in February 2026 unless formally extended.
Both Washington and Moscow need to take several steps back from the looming nuclear abyss. US leaders especially must adopt a more realistic assessment of the various issues at stake. Allowing Ukraine and other secondary or tertiary matters to torpedo US relations with Russia, one of the great powers in the international system, was a spectacular example of foreign policy malpractice.
Bilateral nuclear tensions are now easily at their worst level since the early 1980s. Washington’s recent strategy of dismantling the system of diplomatic accords that ended the original Cold War was irresponsible, and officials in both the Trump and Biden administrations were to blame.
Trump, however, has the chance to redeem himself and correct the vast array of bipartisan policy blunders toward Russia. We must all hope that he does not blow such an important new opportunity. The consequences of failure this time could, quite literally, be catastrophic for millions of Americans.
About the Author: Ted Galen Carpenter
Ted Galen Carpenter is a senior fellow at the Randolph Bourne Institute and a contributing editor at The National Security Journal. He is the author of 13 books and more than 1,300 articles on national security, international affairs, and civil liberties. His latest book is Unreliable Watchdog: The News Media and US Foreign Policy (2022).
Military Matters
The F-22 Raptor Just Keeps Getting Better
bish-bish
August 15, 2025 at 6:18 am
The best way to fix it would be for Russia to develop and fly a fleet of spaceplanes (or space shuttles) as quickly as possible.
But right now, that doesn’t look very likely as the west has managed to trap Russia in the ruinous Donbass conflict.
That conflict was managed and controlled by Biden and his goebbellian foreign minister, Antony blinken.
Today their very deeply nefarious role is being continued by trump, the western politicians and the western media.
As a result, the danger of a global nuclear confrontation has now vastly increased.
But the danger can’t decrease today, UNLESS Russia has a working fleet of spaceplanes flying every now and then.
Trump is no better than Biden.
Though Biden is the worst US president in recent memory.