President Donald Trump’s war with Iran has become a growing political problem for Republicans, as high fuel prices and voter frustration threaten the party’s control of Congress.
The midterm elections are only a week away, and polls suggest a Democratic Party victory is almost certain as Republican candidates struggle to share their own messages amid increasing discontent with the Trump administration.
B-1B Lancer at USAF Museum in July 2025. Image Credit: National Security Journal.
A U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer assigned to the 345th Expeditionary Bomb Squadron is photographed after landing at Dyess Air Force Base, Texas, Aug. 22, 2025. Three bombers deployed for Bomber Task Force Europe with a total force integration team composed of roughly 30% active-duty and 70% reserve Airmen from the 7th Bomb Wing and 489th Bomb Group. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Jade M. Caldwell)
Trump has defended the campaign as necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Yet polls suggest many voters want the war brought to an end, while some Republicans in competitive races have called for a quicker resolution.
The Cost of War
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven rising costs.
Ever since the conflict began at the end of February, the Strait of Hormuz, which is important for oil exports from the Middle East, has been closed by Iran.
Since U.S. and Israeli bombs rained down on Iran, Tehran has used its chokehold on the strait, which is only 24 miles wide at its narrowest point, to limit the flow of commercial shipping traffic through the body of water.
As a result, oil prices have risen.
Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, has regularly surpassed $100 per barrel since February.
By comparison, Brent crude peaked at $74 per barrel in the 12 months before the war began.
Trump campaigned to keep the country out of foreign wars in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election.
When Operation Epic Fury began, Trump promised the war would end within weeks.
Later this week, it will approach its eight-month anniversary, with little end in sight.
The loss of U.S. lives has been low compared to other conflicts that have seen U.S. involvement. The Pentagon says the death toll is a total of 21; in Iraq, 4,417 Americans lost their lives.
Trump’s Justification
The president has argued throughout the campaign that higher gasoline and diesel prices are worth bearing the pain to ensure Iran does not pursue development of a nuclear weapon.
At a weekend rally in Michigan, he stood by the decision to launch the war even considering the economic impact on millions of American households.
“Somebody said, ‘If you had to do it again…’” Trump told supporters on Saturday, October 24. “I said, ‘Are you kidding?’ I thought gas would be double or triple. And it’s a small price to pay for taking a nuclear weapon away from maniacs.”
Voters Disagree
While Trump may believe the conflict has been worthwhile, American voters disagree.
An Associated Press and NORC poll found that 72% of registered voters, including 61% of Republicans, want the war’s conclusion to be “one of the highest priorities” for the next Congress.
Trump’s personal approval has slumped too.
Although the president himself isn’t on the ballot, he’s been urging supporters to vote as if he were.
After three separate polls found his approval rating at its lowest level in either of his two terms, Democrat candidates may advocate this strategy more than their GOP counterparts.
“Trump’s messaging on the war is resonating with a shrinking portion of the electorate,” said Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory, to ABC News. “For voters disappointed with the direction of the conflict, there’s little by way of the president’s claims that would change their negative outlook.”
GOP Dissent
Despite the polls suggesting otherwise, few GOP candidates have departed from the Trump administration line on Iran.
However, in closer races, Republican hopefuls have distanced themselves from the administration.
GOP Senate hopeful and current Iowa Representative Ashley Hinson has called for an “immediate and successful” end to the Iran war amid rising gas prices – a view shared by Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers.
For Hinson, it’s a strategy that hasn’t convinced on-the-fence voters to vote Republican. Last Wednesday, the Cook Political Report said 46% favored Democrat Josh Turek by two percentage points.
Rogers, too, faces an uphill battle in the last week of the campaign, with a survey released this morning (Tuesday, October 27) showing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed set to win Michigan’s Senate seat.
About the Author: Shay Bottomley
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist. He has written for the Western Standard, Business Insider, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo.
