Key Points and Summary – Beijing’s A2/AD playbook centers on DF-21D, DF-26B, and DF-17 missiles designed to hold U.S. carriers and bases at risk from the First to Second Island Chains.
-The real edge is a maturing kill chain—satellites, OTH radars, drones—meant to find and flood targets with mixed salvos.
The world’s largest aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) steams in the Adriatic Sea, June 23, 2023. Gerald R. Ford is the U.S. Navy’s newest and most advanced aircraft carrier, representing a generational leap in the U.S. Navy’s capacity to project power on a global scale. The Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group is on a scheduled deployment in the U.S. Naval Forces Europe area of operations, employed by U.S. Sixth Fleet to defend U.S., allied, and partner interests. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jackson Adkins)
-But it’s unproven in combat.
-U.S. counters focus on layered defense: Aegis SM interceptors, EA-18G jamming, decoys, CIWS, longer reach via MQ-25, dispersion, and submarine strike. China can crater airfields, yet its own fleet and amphibious lift remain targetable.
-Bottom line: the threat is real, not automatic. Survival—and deterrence—hinge on breaking the kill chain.
China’s “Aircraft Carrier Killers” vs. U.S. Carriers: Who Wins the First Salvo?
The Chinese military has built up its ballistic missile force and its arsenal of anti-ship missiles for one significant reason. To deny the US Navy aircraft carrier strike groups access to the Western Pacific in a war sparked by an invasion of Taiwan.
China’s “carrier-killer” strategy is based on three land-based missile systems. The DF-21D is the original, a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) with a maneuverable warhead designed to strike U.S. carriers inside the First Island Chain.
The DF-26B “Guam Killer” is a longer-range IRBM (4,000 km) that extends this threat to U.S. bases in the Second Island Chain. And the DF-17, China’s most dangerous missile which deploys a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV).
PHILIPPINE SEA (Sept. 24, 2024) The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) transits the Philippine Sea, Sept. 24, 2024. Theodore Roosevelt, flagship of Carrier Strike Group 9, is underway conducting routine operations in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of operations. U.S. 7th Fleet is the U.S. Navy’s largest forward-deployed numbered fleet, and routinely interacts and operates with allies and partners in preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Adina Phebus)
China test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean last September, adding to already heightened tensions in the region where multiple countries have overlapping territorial claims, and both Beijing and Washington seek to project their influence.
Drew Thompson, a former U.S. defense official, said the test launch, which coincides with the U.N. General Assembly meeting in New York, “is a pretty blunt signal” to the international order.
“China is signaling that its forbearance has limits, that it is prepared to use its most powerful weapons to deter adversaries or punish them if needed if deterrence fails,” he said.
China’s Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategy:
China’s “carrier-killer” missiles are a core component of its broader A2/AD strategy, intended to push U.S. naval forces beyond an effective strike range.
The strategy was influenced by a 1996 incident during the Taiwan Strait Crisis, when China felt humiliated by its inability to counter the presence of U.S. carrier groups.
“Kill Chain”: China has developed a sophisticated network of reconnaissance satellites, over-the-horizon radars, and drones to locate, track, and provide targeting data for its anti-ship missiles.
“Salvo Attack”: In a conflict, China would likely launch a coordinated, high-volume salvo of anti-ship missiles to overwhelm a carrier strike group’s defenses.
China’s Anti-Ship Missile Arsenal:
The People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) has a large array of thousands of ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic missiles designed to overwhelm an enemy’s defenses. Their strategy calls for them to salvo as many types of missiles against warships, mainly against US aircraft carriers.
China has several different types of anti-ship missiles. The DF-21D is capable of rapid in-field reloading. This is a road-mobile, medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM).
USS Constellation Aircraft Carrier. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
It is equipped with a maneuverable re-entry vehicle (MaRV) and flies at hypersonic speeds during its final phase, making it difficult for existing missile defense systems to intercept, and has a range of 1,500 to 2,000 km.
In 2013, the missile was tested against a ship target roughly the same size as contemporary U.S. aircraft carriers.
The DF-26 anti-ship ballistic missile variant can rapidly be swapped with conventional and nuclear land-attack warheads. It is capable of nuclear precision strikes, potentially with low-yield optionality.
In addition to conventional anti-ship and conventional and nuclear land-attack payloads, it is mobile and can be moved rapidly after firing. It has a range of about 4,000 km, which is sufficient to strike U.S. naval assets and military bases in Guam from mainland China.
Dubbed the “Guam Killer”, it is “enough to send all the American aircraft carriers within and beyond the Second Island Chain to the bottom of the sea”, said Yangtse Post military commenter Chen Gwangwen.
China has described the DF-21 and the DF-26B as “Carrier Killers.”
The Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Lassen (DDG 82) moves into position for an underway exercise with the British Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth (R08) and Pre-Commissioning Unit (PCU) Michael Monsoor (DDG 1001). The future USS Michael Monsoor is the second ship in the Zumwalt-class of guided-missile destroyers. (Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class John Philip Wagner, Jr./Released)
China’s numerous DF-17s have a hypersonic glide vehicle to evade U.S. and allied radar and ballistic missile defense. “The DF-17 has demonstrated a high degree of accuracy in testing, with one U.S. government official saying a test warhead “within meters” of its intended, stationary target. U.S. defense officials have also said the DF-ZF HGV performed “extreme maneuvers” and “evasive actions” in previous test flights,” a CSIS Missile Threat essay says.
However, accurate targeting also depends on the Chinese systems’ ability to track a moving American vessel and penetrate newer, more advanced missile systems.
The Chinese will have to fuse efforts to use satellites, over-the-horizon radars, airborne and maritime scouts, and drones to track and fix US aircraft carriers. While it sounds easy, it has never been proven in combat. This will also entail sending course corrections while the missiles are in flight.
China’s Submarine Fleet is Growing:
Currently, the PLAN operates about 50 submarines, but the vast majority are diesel-electric boats, which limits their range and keeps them closer to the Chinese shore.
However, the PLAN is expected to have 65 submarines in the fleet by 2030. The US is rapidly expanding its anti-ship missile arsenal, including Tomahawk anti-ship Missiles and LRASMs.
Tomahawk Block IV Missile. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Carriers and Airfields Are Prime Targets:
The Chinese ballistic missiles will also be targeted against U.S. military runways and taxiways in Japan, Guam, and other Pacific islands in the event of a Taiwan invasion to impede American airpower.
In a new Stimson Center report, “Cratering Effects: Chinese Missile Threats to US Air Bases in the Indo-Pacific,” the Chinese will attack US airbases and crater the runways and taxiways, basically ceasing air operations for days if not weeks.
The essay’s main point is that to restore its ability to project air power early in a war, the United States will need to outthink—not outspend—the PLA. The sobering message is that American air bases “can no longer be considered a sanctuary.”
US Air Defenses And Countermeasures:
The Chinese do have thousands of missiles that they can salvo against US aircraft carrier strike groups in the event of an invasion of Taiwan, which many analysts believe will happen by 2027.
The U.S. military continues to develop and field countermeasures to address the threat posed by these missiles.
The US will utilize a layered defense strategy. A carrier strike group isn’t a single ship. It brings multiple Aegis destroyers and cruisers, airborne early warning, electronic attack, decoys, and fighters, where they use a multi-layered defense system that includes:
SM-series missiles: For intercepting ballistic missiles in different phases of flight.
Electronic Warfare (EW): EA-18G Growler aircraft can blind or jam sensors and data links. Nulka active decoys and other shipborne deception tools can pull seekers off real targets in the terminal phase.
Close-in Weapons Systems: For a last line of defense, the Phalanx CIWS is a rapid-fire, computer-controlled, radar-guided gun that can defeat anti-ship missiles and other close-in threats on land and at sea.
Extended Range: Newer technologies, such as the MQ-25 Stingray unmanned refueling drone, can extend the range of carrier-based aircraft, allowing the carrier strike group to operate further from China’s missile range.
Dispersed Operations: The U.S. is exploring ways to counter the A2/AD strategy by using submarines, unmanned systems, and distributing forces across a broader area to complicate Chinese targeting.
Separating Myth From Reality:
One thing to keep in mind is that all of these claims about China’s weapons capabilities come from China itself. As the piece from “War on the Rocks” that was cited earlier stated:
“China has the world’s largest bureaucracy to propagandize its greatest strengths while hiding (or at least dismissing) its greatest weaknesses. America, by contrast, ultimately bares all for all to see. It is an elementary analytical error to confuse the respective great powers’ “dirty laundry” with their “designer clothes.”
Obviously, this doesn’t negate any of the threat levels that the US would face if war did begin between the two superpowers. Complacency is death in war time.
“Even the finest sword plunged into salt water will eventually rust.” — Sun Tzu
The US would face a daunting task in an Indo-Pacific war with China, and while the mobile missiles would themselves be challenging to track and destroy, the Chinese Navy, which is crucial for the invasion of Taiwan, would not.
And the US Navy and Air Force would target Chinese carriers, and landing ships needed for an invasion. That in itself would be a problematic scenario for the Chinese to overcome.
The threat to US carriers is real, but it isn’t necessarily a guaranteed death sentence. The Navy has been constantly upgrading the way it will fight in a shooting war with China.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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