Key Points and Summary – Chinese state media claim a fourth-gen J-10C “shot down” a fifth-gen J-20 during August wargames, fueling debate over China’s airpower.
-The J-10C’s edge is long-range PL-15/PL-17 BVR missiles and networked tactics, showcased alongside Pakistan’s recent successes.
China J-20S Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
-But details are thin: simulated kills can hinge on rules, setups, or pilot choices. Skeptics note enduring doubts about J-20 stealth (canards, coatings, fit/finish).
-Still, a capable, plentiful J-10C fleet complicates planning for Taiwan’s F-16V force and U.S. air power, especially in gray-zone ops.
-Bottom line: even if the “kill” was context-dependent, the J-10C is now a serious 4.5-gen adversary.
Did a Fourth-Generation J-10C Really “Shoot Down” a J-20 Mighty Dragon?
Chinese pilots do not have real combat experience. But they train plenty, and the J-10C Vigorous Dragon is proving its worth in battle simulations. The fourth-generation fighter already was successful earlier this year during a dogfight between Pakistan and India. Now, it has perhaps pulled off another feat, and some experts are wondering if the J-10C is one of China’s best airplanes—maybe even one of the strongest warbirds in the Indo-Pacific region.
Chinese state-run media recently claimed a J-10C notionally shot down a fifth-generation J-20 Mighty Dragon during a wargame in August. This is a curious development, and it is not clear whether the J-10 pilot was just having a lucky day, or the event implies the J-20 is not as stealthy, fast, and maneuverable as China believes.
“Under the support of the combat system, a J-10C fighter jet ‘shot down’ a J-20 stealth fighter jet in a confrontational exercise,” the Global Times reported, citing CCTV, China’s state broadcasting outlet.
J-10CE Fighter. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
J-10 Fighter From China. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Building on a Growing Combat Record With Allies
The J-10C carries the powerful PL-15 beyond visual range (BVR) air-to-air missile. This projectile worked well in the clash between Pakistan and India. Pakistan was flying the J-10C, while India was using older Dassault Rafales. While it is not clear just how many airplanes the J-10C shot down, it was likely from one to six.
The details of the alleged “shoot down” of the J-20 are not immediately clear. The J-10C pilot likely engaged the J-20 with his PL-15 or PL-17 BVRs—the latter munition has the longer range. The J-10C aviator notionally fired the missile and did not initially know if it struck paydirt.
But when he had a missile lock on the J-20, he asked another friendly aircraft to share what that other pilot saw.
“The missile eventually found its target, marking that the J-10C successfully ‘shot down’ the opposing stealth aircraft,” the other pilot reportedly said.
What Really Happened?
If this exercise really happened how the report described, there are different ways to look at it. On one hand, you could say that the J-10C is on a great run of good fortune, and luck can sometimes make the difference, even in military exercises. The J-10C might even be one of the best fighters in the Chinese fleet.
J-10. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
On the other hand, maybe the J-20’s pilot was simply having a bad day.
Is the J-10C a 4.5-Generation Jet?
The J-10C has been considered a fourth-generation non-stealth fighter in the past, but it might now be known as a 4.5-generation warbird. The BVR missiles on the J-10C are its strong point. China has worked hard to make the long-range PL-15 and PL-17 some of the best air-to-air missiles in the world.
These munitions are so good that the United States is considering making a new medium-range air-to-air missile to improve on the standard Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) it depends so much upon.
Are We Giving the J-10C Too Much Credit?
But let’s not get carried away. The J-20 could have just been in the wrong place at the wrong time, with a pilot who was not paying full attention to his surroundings. The J-20 is supposed to be fully stealthy.
At National Security Journal, we have remained skeptical about the stealth capabilities of the J-20.
Its canards are not made for superior radar evasion. Some of its stealth coatings are not up to the challenge, and with a close perusal of its airframe, one can sometimes see rivets and panel misalignment. The J-20 is just not as stealthy as its U.S. counterparts, the F-22 and F-35.
The J-10C Could Challenge the F-16 and F-15
But the Americans may be wondering whether the J-10C is better than the F-16 and F-15. The U.S. Air Force has always assumed those fighters could best a base-model J-10 with ease, but if the J-10C has become a 4.5-generation bird as the Chinese claim, it is problematic. China has between 400 and 500 J-10s of different variants. The J-10C is the newest model, and China exports it.
Taiwan is likely very concerned about the J-10C’s reported run of success. The Taiwanese are proud of their new F-16V Vipers—probably Taiwan’s best fighter jets. But who would win in a dogfight—the J-10C or the F-16V?
It is troubling for Taiwan that the above question is a reasonable one. The J-10C already likely flies gray zone missions that encroach on Taiwan’s air defense identification zone. This is an international concern, and a maneuver that indicates China could attack Taiwan at any time. China could also fly numerous J-10Cs to enforce a no-fly zone during a potential blockade or quarantine of Taiwan.
China is also enjoying a propaganda boost thanks to the recent performance of the J-10C. Many Chinese citizens were enthused about the Pakistani performance against India. The latest “shoot down” of the J-20 is music to the ears of the person on the street who peruses state-run media and reads about the performance of the J-10C.
The J-10C is definitely becoming a workhorse for the Chinese air force. It has the Americans and the Taiwanese taking notice and doing some basic arithmetic. China has nearly 500 J-10s, and somewhere between 250 and 500 J-20s, with newer J-35 fifth-generation fighters on the way. The J-10C can also be exported to Chinese allies.
Meanwhile, China’s aviators are getting better and acquiring more confidence. They are pushing the limits of their airframes and testing the efficacy of their BVR missiles. J-10C and J-20 pilots are experimenting with new tactics and procedures.
This will add to the burgeoning aerial combat doctrine that China is building to take on the Americans and Taiwanese. Look for more of these exercises to hit Chinese media, with blustery headlines for better propaganda effects and a boost to the morale of pilots. The J-10C is becoming a worthy adversary for the United States and Taiwan.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
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