Key Points and Summary – Saab is “considering” building a Gripen assembly line in Canada, ostensibly to meet a massive potential order of 100+ jets from Ukraine.
-However, the announcement’s timing is seen as a “strategic” power play, not a simple supply chain move.
A U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II assigned to the 356th Expeditionary Fighter Squadron, 354th Air Expeditionary Wing, sits on the flightline during Agile Combat Employment training at Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, Japan, June 30, 2022. ACE is Pacific Air Forces’ model to project combat power via a network of distributed operating locations throughout the Indo-Pacific region. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Jose Miguel T. Tamondong)
-It comes just as Canadian PM Mark Carney’s government is reviewing whether to cancel the remaining 72 jets in its 88-plane F-35 deal.
-The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) is strongly opposed, warning that a “mixed fleet” of Gripens and F-35s would be a costly “logistical nightmare” and a “compatibility risk.”
-Saab’s offer of Canadian jobs is seen as a “last chance” attempt to win the contract, capitalizing on Canada’s trade spat with the U.S.
Canada’s F-35 Debate Gets Interesting
Swedish defense manufacturing firm Saab is reportedly considering moving at least part of its Gripen fighter jet assembly lines to Canada as part of a plan to ramp up production for Ukraine – but the move could easily be interpreted as an attempt to win over the Canadian government ahead of an anticipated decision on the future of the country’s procurement deal with Lockheed Martin for 88 F-35s.
Ottawa is expected to announce in the coming months whether the Lockheed Martin deal will continue or whether Saab will provide the remaining 72 aircraft that have not yet been delivered, giving Canada a mixed fleet of fifth-generation fighter jets.
Saab CEO Michael Johansson confirmed in recent press interviews that Kyiv’s recent interest in purchasing over 100 Gripen fighter jets would double the company’s current production capacity, forcing a decision on how to expand production.
Reuters reported that Johansson said the company is now looking for a way to increase its manufacturing capacity, and that Canada and some European countries are in the running to receive the contract.
JAS 39 Gripen Front and Center. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Speaking to reporters at the Canadian Aerospace Summit in Ottawa, Industry Minister Melanie Joly said that it was “good news” and that she had talked to Johansson about the company’s plans earlier that day.
“I’ve been actively working with Saab to see what can be done to do more partnerships with Canada, and it starts with the GlobalEye, but also we’re willing to see what we can do to help support Ukraine,” Joly said, referencing the GlobalEye multi-role airborne early warning and control platform also built by Saab for Canada.
In 3 Words: JAS 39 Gripen
On the surface, Saab’s announcement that it is considering Canada for a final assembly site of its JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets, in the wake of a potential order from Ukraine, appears to be a supply-chain move.
But in Stockholm and Ottawa, the timing and framing suggest something far more strategic: Saab is signaling to Canada’s government that there is a credible industrial alternative to the F-35 Lightning II deal already in the works. Saab lost out to Lockheed Martin once before, but is looking to win the contract now that Prime Minister Mark Carney appears intent on loosening Canada’s dependence on the United States.
By floating the idea of building in Canada – something Saab promised to do if Ottawa decides to purchase 72 new Gripens instead of going ahead with its Lockheed Martin deal – the Swedish company is showing Canada that it is committed to both the platform and the country.
The 461st FLTS, F-35 Integrated Test Force, at Edwards Air Force Base in California received a newly instrumented F-35A aircraft. The unique airframe will boost flight and mission sciences testing for the warfighter at a critical time during developmental test. “This new aircraft arrives at a crucial time, supporting intensive testing of TR-3 software upgrades and next-generation weapons integration.” says Lt. Col. Daniel Prudhomme, F-35 ITF director. “As the world’s only F-35A capable of evaluating both mission systems and flight sciences, this new asset is key for rapidly fielding advanced capabilities to the warfighter.” (Courtesy photo)
It puts the Canadian government in an interesting position, too. If Canada continues with the F-35 deal, it may lose out on the opportunity to build long-lasting jobs in its country with Saab.
The announcement also comes at precisely the moment when Prime Minister Carney’s government prepares to make a public decision, after the official review of the F-35 deal already came to a close.
The decision may well have been made behind the scenes, but no announcement has been made publicly – and this could be Saab’s last chance to win them over.
Why Saab May Not Be the Right Choice
While Saab is pushing hard to win over Carney, the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) has already made it clear that fielding a mixed fleet of F-35s and Gripens would be a bad idea. This was made clear when Lockheed Martin first won the contract, and has been reiterated by Canadian Air Force officials repeatedly ever since.
From a military and logistics perspective, operating two fundamentally different aircraft types is unwise: it will present serious cost and operational efficiency issues.
There would be multiple pilot training tracks (after pilots have already spent years learning to use the F-35), it would mean double the maintenance infrastructure and planning, and separate supply chains and access to spare parts.
All of these things translate into higher sustainment costs, greater complexity, and increased risk. It’s a logistical nightmare for Canada, but between Saab whispering sweet nothings into Carney’s ear and the ongoing trade war with U.S. President Donald Trump, ultimately, the RCAF may find itself losing the argument.
Beyond economics, though, there’s also a significant compatibility risk – and this is something Carney cannot ignore.
The F-35’s stealth, sensor fusion, and networked warfare suite ensures interoperability with the U.S. Air Force and other allies who also rely on the same platform.
Fielding a second, non-stealth platform in the fleet, however, would make the force less effective overall and harder to integrate with U.S. fleets and operations.
The Swedish fighter is undoubtedly flexible and affordable, but it’s just not the same, and it’s still a generation behind in key areas.
Saab’s proposal is clearly about signaling; sure, the offer is serious, but there is simply no way that the company’s leadership did not consider the possibility that “considering” Canada for their new plans might sweeten the deal.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
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Krystal cane
October 31, 2025 at 2:22 pm
Is it F D T?
Frank Otto Buttenhoff
October 31, 2025 at 10:16 pm
Did you mention all of the factories in Canada that have been for years making parts and assemblies for the F-35? Those jobs were part of the deal….
P
November 1, 2025 at 4:40 am
What are the 3 words? I see a lot of text. What about safety of f-35s in the only 2 ro 3 bases that will be able to operate it? The first missiles will destroy the runways and the complex support infrastructure. Than what?
Ron Fischer
November 1, 2025 at 8:17 am
I’m tired of hearing from American writers that simply can’t see any other choice then the F-35, the US is a threat and it makes no sense to rely on US equipment at this time. If the airforyis so worried about a mixed fleet I am concerned about their abilities
greg milsom
November 1, 2025 at 9:22 am
The writer of this article is described as “former far right”
That’s enough for me….buy the Saab jet and drop the American jet.
Too risky at this point in history to trust the Americans.
James Moak
November 1, 2025 at 10:51 am
Why can’t Canada build the Gripen in Canada for Saab,buy the F35, and down the road possibly buy the Gripen as a replacement for the F35 if things turn even more sour with the US ?!?!
Forever Canuck Strong
November 1, 2025 at 11:47 am
Two key additional points:
1) Canadian sovereignty: while mixed fleet is more costly fromntraining, training sims, supply chains, Lockheed is NOT fully sharing all IP related to the software & systemsfor F-35. The Gripens built in Canada give Canada a greater control on sovereignty without F-35 systems being disabled or without supply chain and upgrade delays already experienced by other foreign powers that previously purchased the F-35.
2) Canadian Jobs + R&D for Future Saab Gripen Stealth NGAD:
Building facilities in Canada would allow Canada to become a more strategic partner with Saab so that Canadian defense contractors and corps like. BOmbardier among others (MDA Space, Callan, others) could be involved in a future Gripen Stealth fighter and any remote drones it may be able to control as part of an NGAD fighter.
James Mullen
November 1, 2025 at 12:56 pm
Hmm stealing jobs from Canadian factories giving them incentives to move back to USA an you think we should buy the f35 are stupid or retarded
Rob Walker
November 1, 2025 at 2:52 pm
If a mixed fleet is the problem then Sell the F35’s we have and build Our Own Fleet…
Brent
November 1, 2025 at 5:43 pm
Canada (we) don’tneed stealth aircraft.
It needs planes that are proven reliable, in our northern conditions the f-35 has proven the opposite,external fuel tanks for ferrying the f-35 has yet to be tested as the us relies on tankers,
We need super cruise for speed and efficiency the f-35 can’t.
We need interoperability with all north American and European weapons.
The f-35 can’t.
We need planes that don’t require special hangers or air conditioning while being hanger babies.
We need planes that can take off and land on ice
We need planes that can be reloaded and refueled on the fly in minutes.
You know what meets these requirements?
Gripen E
You know what doesn’t?
F-35
Bye-bye
You’re no good for me, I’m no good for you
Gonna look you right in the eye, tell you what I’m gonna do
You know I’m gonna leave
You know I’m gonna go, you know I’m gonna leave
You know I’m gonna go, woman
I’m gonna leave, woman
Goodbye, American woman
You know
Roland K
November 1, 2025 at 6:18 pm
Canadian Military leaders against it sighting logistics?
Name names so that we can see who is paying them to sell us out.
As for the few parts made here, those factories can also make parts for the Grippen. Any factories 100% dedicated to the FU program was going to rxpire after milking the contracts just like most other behind the curtains so called Canadian suppliers.
Citing job loss is a smoke screen as the Grippen jobs would replace and surpass them as there will be more aircraft for the same budget and therefore more parts initially required.
J Thompson
November 1, 2025 at 6:46 pm
Any real threat to Canadian sovereignty in the foreseeable future will come FROM The USA. Buying defense systems from the country most likely to invade is insane!
F35s the US sells to “allies” (former allies the US now betrays) are degraded versions intended for sale: they don’t come with all the software & electronic upgrades provided to the the US military. Not surprising. And they’ll be entirely dependent on the US for software & hardware upgrades, maintenance and parts. All of that subject to American goodwill, where the US president has made it abundantly clear he has no goodwill for anyone, is entirely transactional in the moment, and is spectacularly unreliable.
Any agreement made with Washington is a trap
Future reliance on such agreements becomes leverage for extortion. We MADE a trade agreement: NAFTA. Trump abrogated it, demanded & negotiated a new one: CUSMA. Then he abrogated THAT, now demands another new one. Which he’ll honor until he doesn’t. That’s the baseline risk: unacceptable.
Add to that real risk of US invasion, and we’d have to be insane to buy more F35s. Canada should sell the ones we have: they promise no benefit in the event we need them.
Buying F35s signals surrender
If Carney buys more F35s it’ll signal he’s unwilling or unable to defend Canada & Canadian sovereignty. Stalling on the announcement ’till AFTER the pending trade negotiations makes sense, except it means the US will turn acceptance into a condition of any new trade agreement. We bought 16 so far: see how that is being used as leverage AGAINST us?
Better to bite the bullet now, kill the F35 deal & buy Grippens.
Show backbone! Trump ONLY respects strength
We’re going to get hosed in the trade negotiations regardless. Better to forge ahead with reliable partners and build a coalition Trump takes seriously. Strengthening our relationship with NATO partners makes sense. Doing so with another partner whose sovereignty Trump assaults is wiser.
We’ll see if Carney has the ba!!$ for it. I suspect he does.
Poilievre would instead cave, supplicate and make Canada a vassal state. Anything so long as he gets to be PM. We’d be another Puerto Rico. Check how that’s working for THEM. God help us all.
David
November 1, 2025 at 7:56 pm
There won’t be a Ukraine within a year, so there won’t be any 100-plane orders coming from there. If Canada goes for this, they will further anger the US, and get zero jobs or investment in exchange
Gary hansen
November 1, 2025 at 9:17 pm
Saab griphen is hands down the best option……and it won’t be a logistical nightmare….less money, cheaper to use and better
Bill Reynolds
November 1, 2025 at 11:22 pm
It must be frustrating for National Security Journal writers these days. Saab is offering one hell of a deal while the US is becoming increasingly hostile and unreliable as a partner. It’s really hard to sell a product when your own bosses are actively shooting you in the foot, eh? Somehow, I doubt the operating cost will be as bad as you expect when the parts are being produced in-house for Gripens. It’ll probably be even cheaper than fielding only F-35s at this point.
Ian S
November 1, 2025 at 11:55 pm
Canada can’t trust the USA. The Trump administration has outlined what it wants: domination of North, Central, and South America. Hence its stance towards Greenland, Panama, and yes, Canada. The Americans are already starting regime change in Venezuela and propping up MAGA type right wing authoritarian in Argentina. They are consolidating authoritarian power in their Executive branch and mostly ignoring the other branches. Canada may not survive as a country but it should not make it any easier for the USA to achieve that goal. Also, if Canada were forced to become part of the USA, it would not be as a state: it would be as a territory. In the past 200 years or so no independent entity has become a US state without being a territory first. The USA wants Canada’s resources not its people. While people in US territories are citizens, they have no vote for President, and no Senate or Congressional representation.
Pragmatic Thinker
November 3, 2025 at 1:20 pm
This writer is obviously biased. No mention of the move to complete the integration of the Rolls Royce EJ230 engine as an option for the Gripen E / F. An improved more powerful version of the same engine in the Eurofighter. Also no idea the advanced technologies already operating in the Gripen E. Just the electronic warfare suite works so good that Germany is trying to update their Typhoons with it. As for costs well that is what the F-35 fans are saying as the Gripen E flies for less then one third the flight hour costs and requires a fraction of the support and maintenance yet has the highest standards for full combat readiness demonstrated from the earlier smaller Gripen C compared to continued failing grades for readiness by the F-35 every years since production started in 2006. Gripen E first flight was 2017 and very much changed right up to the wing spars from earlier Gripens. Already there is a Gripen E testing able to be flown and fight without the pilot on board using AI. USA was going to take back as many F-35 jobs as it can from Canada anyways so it is just a fantasy to believe things will stay the same with the F-35 program regardless what Canada does. Canada does not really control and own the F-35 but more of a lease with an endless amount of additional costs over the program.
Jason Knox
November 3, 2025 at 5:30 pm
Canada is committed to purchasing 12 F-35’s. Cancel the contract and sell the 12 F-35’s which are delivered to another country. Many countries which have a significant wait time would be happy to get the brand new F-35’s early.