Ever since Donald Trump came back into office, as CNN reported in an analysis back in January, the clock has been ticking on the time the GOP has in the Congressional majority.
The majority of recent presidents, after all, have seen their parties lose seats in the midterm elections. This happened to Bill Clinton, George W. Bush in his second term, Barack Obama, and Trump himself in his first term when the House fell to the Democrats in 2018. Joe Biden, during the midterms of his presidency, managed to gain a Senate seat in 2022, while minimizing losses in the House, although the GOP did gain control of that chamber.
Considering that history, and the unusually small size of the current GOP House majority, there’s a strong chance at least the House falls to Democratic control in 2026, which has given the Trump Administration urgency to get much of Trump’s agenda passed while they maintain control of Congress.
In an interview with Axios, shortly before Trump returned to office, White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles seemed to acknowledge that it was important for Trump to get his agenda passed in the first two years.
Trump and the GOP: Fighting Uphill
And according to a Newsweek analysis published this week, most political analysts see it as an “uphill battle” for the GOP to keep both houses of Congress in 2026.
Whether it’s special elections or midterms, Republicans in the Trump era have tended to underperform in elections in which Trump is not on the ballot. And Trump, of course, will never be on the ballot again.
So what will the landscape look like after the midterm elections in 2026?
A Look Ahead to 2027
Let’s assume that the Democrats win at least the House. And let’s also assume that Trump gives up any claim that he’s been making about trying to run for a third term.
Here’s what politics will look like at that point: If the Republicans have lost their Congressional majority, that will likely mean the end of any major legislative agenda for Trump, although in both of his terms, Trump’s more significant actions, whether on trade or foreign policy, have taken place outside of the legislative process.
The Democrats, in control of the House, will have control of committees and subpoena power, meaning lots of hearings on all of the things done by Trump’s administration so far that are of questionable constitutionality or legality. Whether it’s deportations, crackdowns on law firms and universities, or other things that haven’t even happened yet, the House Oversight Committee will likely find itself very busy.
Also, we can expect bitter and protected battles over the budget and other must-pass agenda items.
Trump will be a lame duck, with just two years left in office. This means that Republicans in Congress who may have feared Trump’s wrath in the past will have less to fear, with Trump never going on a ballot again.
And 2028
Another thing is going to get going once the midterm elections are over: The 2028 presidential election. Both parties will presumably have wide-open primaries, with the Trump-free next election starting to take up lots of oxygen normally consumed, for the last decade or so, by whatever Trump is up to at any given moment.
On the Republican side, particularly, it will be closely watched whether Trump endorses, who he endorses, and whether the president can get off the stage while the next generation of leaders competes. Even without him as a candidate, it’s hard to imagine that the 2028 GOP primaries won’t almost entirely be about Trump.
Will these circumstances cause Trump to become chastened, and slowly prepare himself for the transition to retirement? Or will it make him more unhinged than ever, doing things as president and asserting powers never previously thought imaginable?
If precedent is any judge, the latter is a much better bet.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
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