In 2024, China captured headlines around the world when it unveiled what appeared to be its first sixth-generation fighter, the Chengdu J-36. After its reveal, analysts quickly compared it to America’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, claiming that the US is falling behind China in terms of sixth-generation fighter production.
But is this the case?
An F-35A Lightning II, assigned to the 388th Fighter Wing, at Hill Air Force Base, UT, flies in formation with a Belgian Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon on Sept 10, 2022, Kleine Brogel Air Base, Belgium. The F-35 Demo Team consists of approximately 15 total Airmen to include the pilot and commander, pilot safety officers, superintendent, team chief, maintenance Airmen, aircrew flight equipment specialists, and public affairs personnel. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Thomas Barley).
According to reports, the NGAD had its first flight as early as 2020.
With this in mind, let us take a closer look at the NGAD’s current status to see whether the US is falling behind in the sixth-generation arms race.
Where is the NGAD Currently At?
The NGAD program is not just about developing a single aircraft; it is a “family of systems” that includes both manned and unmanned platforms.
The primary goal is to create a highly advanced, networked system capable of operating in environments where current aircraft might struggle.
This includes dealing with sophisticated enemy air defenses and electronic warfare systems.
6th Generation Fighter Could Be a Game-Changer
The centerpiece of the NGAD program is a sixth-generation manned fighter jet. This aircraft is expected to feature advanced stealth capabilities, supercruise (the ability to fly at supersonic speeds without afterburners), and highly integrated avionics. The design aims to ensure survivability, lethality, and interoperability across a range of military operations.
Alongside the manned fighter, the NGAD program includes the development of uncrewed, semi-autonomous aircraft. These “loyal wingmen” will fly in coordination with the manned fighter, providing additional capabilities such as surveillance, electronic warfare, and even offensive operations.
The Biden Administration requested $2.75 billion for research and development for the NGAD platform and an additional $557 million for the CCA in the fiscal year 2025. This funding is crucial for advancing the program, but it is subject to congressional approval and changing administrations. The Air Force has already invested a significant amount in the program, with $5.1 billion appropriated for NGAD fighter technologies from FY2022 to FY2024.
(ILLUSTRATION) — An artist illustration shows a flight of unmanned weapons carriers escorted by a sixth generation air dominance fighter during a combat mission over an undisclosed location. Mike Tsukamoto/staff; Airman 1st Class Erin Baxte.
NGAD Already Flew Back in 2020
One of the most significant milestones for the NGAD program was the first flight of a demonstrator aircraft in 2020, according to Air Force acquisition czar Will Roper. This flight marked a crucial step in validating the technologies and concepts that will underpin the final design. More recently, Pratt & Whitney and GE Electric have completed detailed design reviews of their adaptive cycle engines, which are expected to power the new fighter jet.
The NGAD program is being developed with a keen eye on the evolving threat environment, particularly the advancements in Chinese military capabilities. The Air Force has emphasized the need for the NGAD to operate effectively in highly contested environments, where traditional aircraft might be at a disadvantage. This includes the ability to conduct long-range missions without relying heavily on vulnerable aerial refueling tankers.
Critics Remain Unconvinced
Despite its potential, many critics remain skeptical about the NGAD’s future prospects. The U.S. defense budget, while substantial, is not unlimited. The Air Force must balance the funding needs of the NGAD program with other critical projects, such as the LGM-35A Sentinel ICBM and the F-35 Lightning II. Budget constraints could impact the pace of development and the number of aircraft ultimately procured, if not kill the project entirely.
In 2024, the USAF announced that it was temporarily pausing the program to “figure out whether we’ve got the right design and make sure we’re on the right course,” according to Secretary Frank Kendall. To critics of the program, this announcement does not inspire confidence. Furthermore, the pause is supposed to reevaluate the overall design of the fighter, which gives the impression that the designers themselves lack confidence in their own project.
NGAD Flew or Something NGAD-Like?
Additionally, some critics question whether the NGAD has actually taken flight yet. While a successful test flight was claimed back in 2020, there is currently no proof that this flight ever took place. With no pictures or videos available, all we can do is take Will Roper at his word when he said that successful test flights occurred.
To critics, this is not enough. The pause on the project and the continual redesigns cast even more doubt that the NGAD has had its first flight. Most likely, the Air Force flew a test frame with some of the experimental electronics on board to test them out. Whatever flew in 2020 is most probably not the NGAD that will be flying in the 2030s.
B-21 Is the Gold Standard
Comparing the development of the NGAD with the development of the B-21 Raider, it is night and day in terms of publicity and transparency.
The B-21’s development process was excessively transparent and publicized. Its first flight was like an alarm bell that rang around the world. The same cannot be said of the NGAD program. With the transparency of the B-21 program and the secrecy of the NGAD program, critics suspect that things are not going as well as the Pentagon says they are.
The NGAD is at Trump’s Mercy
Currently, the NGAD is waiting for a decision from the Trump administration on whether or not to continue the project.
With Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency attempting to rein in the federal budget, the NGAD program could find itself next on the chopping block. Hopefully, the new administration realizes the importance of the NGAD program, especially in the face of adversaries like China.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
