On September 19, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that he would not only welcome his Turkish counterpart, President Erdoğan, to the White House on September 25, but also discuss several military deals, including the sale of upgraded F-16s and F-35 Joint Strike Fighters.
Trump’s desire to sell Erdoğan such platforms makes neither financial nor strategic sense.
U.S. Air Force Col. Kevin Crofton, 52nd Fighter Wing commander, taxis in an F-16 Fighting Falcon during his fini flight at Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, May 19, 2025. The fini flight is a long-standing U.S. Air Force tradition that marks the final flight of an aircrew member’s current assignment. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Albert Morel)
While Trump and the aircraft manufacturers might point to the multibillion-dollar contract, Turkey’s tendency to reverse engineer such technology to incorporate into its own military industry means Lockheed Martin essentially sells out its own future to jumpstart a competitor’s industry.
For Trump to help Turkey’s military is as strategically backward as, in hindsight, President Bill Clinton’s willingness to sell cutting-edge satellite technology to the People’s Republic of China.
Trump’s Big Turkey Mistake
Trump’s embrace of Erdoğan is even more strategically unsound given Erdoğan’s previous use of Turkey’s F-16s and his threats to the region.
Turkish F-16s and drones regularly bomb Kurdish villages in Syria and Iraq and violate Cypriot sovereignty on a nearly daily basis.
Turkish F-16s also reportedly attacked Armenian positions during Azerbaijan’s 2020 invasion of Nagorno-Karabakh.
For Trump to arm Turkey with advanced weaponry as Erdoğan repeatedly incites terrorism and threatens Israel, however, simply greenlights and encourages Erdoğan’s behavior; it is akin to selling Saddam Hussein weaponry after he used chemical weapons against the Kurds and began questioning Kuwait’s right to exist as an independent state.
With Erdoğan threatening Israel, hosting Hamas, and now arming itself with some of the world’s most sophisticated aircraft, and with Trump either blind to or seeking to profit from the situations, Israeli leaders should no longer embrace their decades-old policy of nuclear ambiguity.
What Should Israel Do Now
Throughout the Cold War, the United States guaranteed Israel a qualitative military edge to ensure that, despite its lack of strategic depth, it could withstand an Arab invasion.
Trump now ensures that Israel must face in Turkey a foe almost ten times as populous.
Erdoğan is as committed to Israel’s destruction as Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser and Iranian Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini once were.
Both Nasser and Khomeini sold their constituents the illusion that their hatred of Israel would come without cost.
In the interest of peace, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should make clear to the Turkish public that the cost of any direct or indirect on Israel could be huge.
A Major Change In Tone and Substance
Not only should he make clear that Israel will never allow Turkey to develop nuclear weapons, but that Israel reserves the right to respond with nuclear weapons against Turkish military targets and bases should Turkey use those bases to attack the Jewish state.
Turks—and Americans—would be wise to avoid areas around the Merzifon, Konya, and Incirlik Air Bases, among others.
F-16 Fighting Falcons assigned to the 114th Fighter Wing sit ready on the ramp while conducting an elephant walk at Joe Foss Field, South Dakota, July 2, 2025. The 114th Fighter Wing conducted an elephant walk to demonstrate its ability to project fighter airpower. (U.S. Air National Guard photo by Master Sgt. Luke Olson)
America’s nuclear advantage shortened World War II, and nuclear deterrence prevented direct war between the United States and Soviet Union and their European satellites during the Cold War.
If Trump wants to pursue his weapons sales to Turkey, Israel will have no choice but declare tis nuclear card and strike at Turkey unilaterally should it attempt either to develop a covert nuclear weapon or seize any U.S. nuclear weapons still stored on its territory.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Michael Rubin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum. The opinions and views expressed are his own. A former Pentagon official, Dr. Rubin has lived in post-revolution Iran, Yemen, and both pre- and postwar Iraq. He also spent time with the Taliban before 9/11. For more than a decade, he taught classes at sea about the Horn of Africa and Middle East conflicts, culture, and terrorism, to deployed US Navy and Marine units. The views expressed are the author’s own.
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Jim
September 21, 2025 at 12:28 pm
This is the issue which concerns me the most with regards to Israeli foreign policy.
Israel has the same policy as all nuclear powers have; should that nation-state be faced with an existential threat, it reserves the right to use nuclear weapons against the aggressor state to stop the existential threat, whether it be a conventional military action or a nuclear action from another nuclear power.
Nobody knows what threshold the Israeli government has for a conventional attack (say from Iran or Turkey) on its military or civilian infrastructure (quite possibly even the Israeli government doesn’t know exactly where that threshold might be).
We don’t want to get to that point.
Regarding Turkey and Erdogan’s potential threats against Israel, what is driving them?
The two principle reasons: the situation in Syria where Israel and Turkey are jockeying for power, influence, and control of territory and politics within Syria. And, the situation in Gaza… and now the prospect of Israeli attacks on seemingly any country which hosts groups perceived as threats to Israel.
We can focus on Turkey and the proposed weapons sales and discuss the wisdom of such sales to Turkey which under Erdogan has gone in a neo-Ottoman, aggressive direction on foreign policy, sure, entirely appropriate, but you also have to discuss Israeli government actions and policy, as well.
Sadly, many want to hold harmless any action Israel takes as being justified and right, but this ignores the fact actions have consequences, no matter by who, whether by Turkey or Israel… or any other country.
Overall, U. S. foreign policy should have an objective to lower tensions and raise trust around the World. The current administration’s actions have led in the opposite direction, raising tensions and lowering trust around the World (and straining our diplomatic relations around the World with friends and foes alike).
It’s dangerous and doesn’t benefit American interests abroad or the American People here at home.
Bankotsu
September 22, 2025 at 3:38 am
What about Saudi Arabia and Pakistan?
Saudi just signed military alliance with Pakistan. If Israel attacks Saudi like Qatar, Pakistan might nuke Israel.
How like that?
Bankotsu
September 22, 2025 at 3:41 am
If Israel attacks Saudi Arabia, Pakistan will nuke Israel.
Bankotsu
September 22, 2025 at 3:55 am
If thermonuclear war breaks out between Israel and Pakistan, I think Israel should empty all of its nukes on Pakistan and Pakistan should empty all of its nukes on Israel. That makes sense to me.
Jimminy
September 22, 2025 at 4:37 am
I highly doubt that Rubin has a Dr. degree. How can someone who has supposedly had a higher education come up with so many false statements on a regular basis?
I mean we all do know why he is doing this – to further their false claims that Israel is this and that, but it’s so obvious that only people who have no idea at all might believe him and akin.
Regardless, I still do hope the stops spreading hate and lies at some point.
I also question these people for their lack of foresight. How can they not see, that they will probably not survice in the middle east on the long run if they ensure that people hate them so much for all the wrongdoings. Is this complete lack of self-awareness or their feeling that they are chosen people or better people?