Key Points and Summary – After its antiquated air force and fragmented air defenses were decimated in the recent “12-day war” with Israel and the U.S., a weakened Iran is now looking to China for advanced weaponry.
-With its traditional military supplier, Russia, bogged down in Ukraine, Tehran is reportedly considering a major foreign policy shift to become more “deferential” to Beijing in exchange for modern fighter jets and air defense systems.
-This potential pivot highlights Iran’s desperation to rebuild its military and deter future strikes as it vows to continue its nuclear program, creating a new and dangerous dynamic in the Middle East.
Iran May Have Found A Source For Advanced Weapons: China
The recent “12-day war” with Israel and the United States fully exposed the extent of Iran’s military weaknesses and confirmed what many defense analysts have long speculated.
Tehran’s air force is a relic of the Cold War, built around aging American-made F-4s, F-5s, and F-14s from the 1970s, supplemented by obsolete Soviet and Chinese platforms that are ill-equipped to contend with fifth-generation stealth fighters like Israel’s F-35I Adir.
Iran’s air defenses fared no better. Even at critical nuclear facilities like Natanz, analysts have described its defense architecture as “siloed and fragmented,” dependent on a patchwork of Soviet-era systems with limited capacity to coordinate against modern joint-force attacks.
When U.S. B-2 bombers and Israeli jets began striking Iranian nuclear infrastructure, those warnings were quickly borne out.
With much of its air defense network compromised and its nuclear program reportedly only partially destroyed, Tehran appears to be searching for new military suppliers to rebuild and modernize – everything from weapons and jets to air defense systems.
For years, Iran has looked to Russia for help – but Moscow’s prolonged war in Ukraine has limited its capacity to deliver. Now, signs point to China as Iran’s most likely alternative, as Tehran prepares for what appears to be an inevitable second round of U.S. or Israeli strikes – driven by its declared intent to rebuild its nuclear program.
What We Know
Speaking to Newsweek, a professor of the Middle East Studies Institute (MESI) of Shanghai International Studies University revealed why Iran could be looking to establish greater military cooperation with China. Hongda Fan cited the People’s Republic’s “remarkable progress in areas such as fighter jet development” as a reason why Iran could seek help to strengthen its vulnerable airspace.
Fan told the outlet that China may soon add Iran to its expanding network of military partners, much like it did with Pakistan, which deployed Chinese Chengdu J-10C multirole jets during a short-lived clash with India earlier this year. Fan argued that China and Iran see themselves as “victims of certain policies pursued by Western powers,” suggesting a partnership would make sense.
A deal, however, has not yet been agreed – and significant groundwork would be required for China to consider selling or providing military hardware to Iran seriously.
For any new partnership to be anywhere near as beneficial as the “iron-clad” deal between Pakistan and China, Iran might be forced to change its foreign policy messaging and end its delusional “great-power mindset.”
Fan noted that Tehran officials often depict Iran as “one of the centers of the world,” and argued that if its leadership could show “sufficient willingness and trust toward China,” there would be no grounds to refuse cooperation.
Put, a more deferential Iran could unlock access to advanced aircraft and air defense systems far beyond its own domestic capabilities.
About the Author:
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society. His latest book is The Truth Teller: RFK Jr. and the Case for a Post-Partisan Presidency.
The Best Tanks on Earth
AbramsX: The Tank the US Army Wants
