Would China Dare Drop a Nuclear Bomb on Taiwan?

Key Points – While China maintains an official “no-first-use” nuclear policy, the possibility of it using a nuclear weapon in a conflict over Taiwan cannot be completely dismissed.

-An invasion of Taiwan would likely be a complex and costly operation, and if it were to bog down into a protracted and brutal insurgency in Taiwan’s mountains, a frustrated Beijing might consider nuclear escalation to end the fight.

-However, China’s arsenal of tactical nuclear weapons is believed to be limited or non-existent, making a strategic strike on the island impractical.

-A more likely nuclear scenario would involve an ICBM test to intimidate Washington if the US were to intervene militarily.

Would China Use a Nuclear Weapon Against Taiwan?

We discuss a potential war between China and Taiwan extensively in these digital pages for a reason. A Chinese operation against the island could begin with a blockade or quarantine (non-kinetic) and graduate to an all-out amphibious invasion (kinetic).

One aspect often overlooked is the potential for escalation to nuclear war.

China currently possesses around 600 nuclear warheads, and the country wants at least 1,000 by 2030. It is not clear if Xi Jinping would ever order the use of a doomsday device against Taiwan as China has a no-first-use policy, but atomic scenarios are worth examining.

China’s Conventional Attack Would Devastate Taiwan

The Chinese military order of battle would begin with a shock and awe campaign against Taipei and defense sites around the island. Ballistic missiles and cruise missiles from shore launchers, fighter jets, bombers, surface ships, and submarines would devastate Taiwan before an amphibious attack. Airplanes would also drop guided bombs. China frequently rehearses amphibious operations, and the new landing barges it has built can deploy numerous tanks and armored personnel carriers to hit the beaches.

How Would Taiwan Fight Back?

Taipei could wave the white flag after the initial assault. Or it could defend its borders with rocket, missile, and artillery fire. Air defense batteries would be busy. There are few landing zones, and these are heavily defended. Additionally, roads to Taipei are limited, which would prevent the tanks from rolling to the capital unimpeded.

Taipei could give up quickly or choose to fight on. But one effective strategy would be to execute a lengthy insurgency as the defenders head for the hills for guerrilla warfare. Taiwan is a mountainous island with high peaks. An insurgency would be brutal for the Chinese to defend against.

China Could Starve Taiwan

However, China’s blockade and no-fly zone would take its toll. Taiwan may have as little as one month of food and energy reserves. It imports over 90 percent of its energy supplies and a significant portion of its food. Taipei would eventually give up if a blockade chokes it off.

That leaves the insurgent fighters in the mountains. They could fight on indefinitely and survive by foraging for food. This is where Xi Jinping could get frustrated. A fiercely fought insurgency would significantly lengthen the war. China would not control the entire island, and the clock would begin ticking as the counterinsurgency campaign may struggle to eliminate all Taiwanese fighters on the island.

This is the point at which Xi could consider using a nuclear weapon. The choice to detonate a nuclear device would be fraught with risk, but he certainly has the wherewithal to do it with high-yield, strategic weapons.

What About Chinese Tactical Nuclear Weapons?

There is another choice – tactical nuclear devices. The Defense Tactical Information Center says that there is little information on China’s battlefield nuclear weapons program.

Xi would likely not order a high-yield strike and would instead rely on a smaller, non-strategic device. ArmsControl.org notes that “one key missing capability is a large or diverse set of theater or tactical nuclear capabilities for limited nuclear strikes.”

Thus, China may not even have any tactical nuclear weapons, although Xi would likely prefer to develop them. A high-yield strategic nuclear weapon would destroy the entire island along with Chinese troops so that a battlefield weapon would be the other choice.

Taiwanese nuclear strategists have worried about the advent of Chinese low-yield nuclear weapons for 20 years. In 2005, Taiwanese Colonel Wen Shang Hsien said that China’s nuclear strategy called for “a preemptive strike strategy” with China’s use of “its tactical nuclear weapons in regional wars if necessary,” according to the National Institute for Public Policy, an American think tank in Virginia.

The U.S. Military May Come to Taiwan’s Rescue

Another consideration for Xi and his generals is whether the United States should intervene during a blockade or invasion of Taiwan. If China lost many of its ships, submarines, and airplanes to the Americans, Xi could be pushed to do the unthinkable. He may test an ICBM to frighten and freeze Washington into halting its fight against China. This is probably a more likely scenario than Xi choosing the full-on nuclear option against Taiwan.

What if roles were reversed, and it is the United States that would consider using a non-strategic weapon against China?

The Pentagon’s 2022 report to Congress on Chinese military capabilities stated, “By late 2018, PRC concerns began to emerge that the United States would use low-yield weapons against its Taiwan invasion fleet,” according to the Atlantic Council.

This would, of course, lead to Armageddon as China would surely respond with high-yield weapons against North America with its ICBMs and intermediate-range nuclear weapons against U.S. targets in Guam, Japan, and South Korea. This all-out nuclear war has a low probability but must be considered by strategists from the United States and China.

While battle planners in China, Taiwan, and the United States must consider the deployment of nuclear weapons in the theater, the use of a first-strike nuclear incident is of low probability. But it is plausible and must be considered and studied.

China is surely developing a tactical nuclear weapon if it hasn’t already. Beijing would consider using it, if one exists, due to American intervention in the form of a blockade or invasion. Xi could also get frustrated fighting a longer duration counterinsurgency in Taiwan, and he may try to escalate to an ICBM or intermediate ballistic missile test that would be fired over the island to freeze the war in place – giving time for China to consolidate terrain and reinforce the army. The nuclear option would likely be just a contingency and not ever happen against Taiwan, but that doesn’t mean nuclear strategists should ignore this possibility.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

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