What Would a Chinese Blockade of Taiwan Look Like?

There is little Taiwan could do to stop a Chinese quarantine, blockade, or no-fly zone. China often conducts military exercises that simulate these operations, and the Taiwanese simply stand back and watch. China has the ships, airplanes, bombers, and missiles to successfully freeze the island’s commerce. A blockade or quarantine would cost the global economy trillions of dollars in lost trade with Taiwan.

DF-17 Missile from China. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Choke Off Imports and Exports

Taiwan has limited natural resources. It depends on other countries for food and fuel and imports 97 percent of its energy. The majority of its Gross Domestic Product is focused on trade. A blockade would be disastrous, and Taiwan would not be able to hold out for more than a month. China would like to choke off Taiwan from the world until it “cries uncle” and allows Beijing to annex the island. This could happen by 2027. Xi Jinping knows he will be judged by history as the leader who could unite China and Taiwan. If he does not accomplish this, he will be regarded by Chinese historians as a failure.

Would Donald Trump Order His Military to Intervene?

China knows it can “break the will” of Taiwan. The Taiwanese would have to depend on the United States to end the blockade. President Joe Biden has said he would come to Taiwan’s aid if such a contingency happened, but less is known about President-elect Donald Trump’s strategy for Taiwan. Trump wants Taipei to spend more on defense, and Taiwan has done so over the last several years, but it still doesn’t invest more than three percent of its GDP on its military.

China Would Create an Electricity Blackout in Taiwan

China also wants to stop all oil, natural gas, and coal imports into Taiwan. If it could do so, electrical power would immediately go out in Taiwan, and the island would ground to a halt under blackout conditions.

So, a blockade or quarantine could achieve China’s goals quickly. China believes the United States and its allies, like Japan, would refuse to interfere. Taiwan is located so close to China that Xi’s military could conceivably conduct a blockade.

China Would Need to Be Flawless Militarily

However, it would take high execution, joint activity, and combined arms tactics. China would need its aircraft carriers and air force to conduct extensive aerial operations to create a no-fly zone over Taiwan. Then, it would need surface ships such as cruisers and destroyers to create a ring around the island. The Chinese coast guard would be active. Submarines would be required during the mission as well. It would need satellite intelligence data for early warning regarding the activity of Taiwan’s military in attacking the blockade, and its rocket and ballistic missile forces would be on constant stand-by. The maritime militia would also be utilized.

China Aircraft Carrier

A blockade would also require vast fuel, food, and drinking water for Chinese vessels. This means large numbers of logistics and supply ships would have to sail back and forth across the Taiwan Strait for weeks if not months.

Getting Help from Russia

Another wild card in the Taiwan blockade operation would be Russia. The Chinese and Russians have conducted joint naval exercises in the past. Xi could convince Vladimir Putin that China could support the war in Ukraine with arms if Russia would help execute the blockade.

Before the blockade starts, China would likely fire missiles into the waters around Taiwan to show that it means business. The Chinese air force would fly over the island with stealth fighters that would evade Taiwanese air defenses. As a show of force, China would likely deploy amphibious ships into the Taiwan Strait to send a message to Taipei that an invasion is imminent.

After the blockade is firmly established, China will wait for Taiwan to ask for negotiations. China would want to stop Taiwanese arms imports from the United States. It would wish for the pro-Chinese KMT party to install a puppet president to lead Taiwan. Then, China would ask for a formal declaration that Taiwan would no longer agitate for independence and swear an oath to be allied with Beijing.

To prevent this, the United States would have to intervene militarily or diplomatically to end the blockade. It is not clear if the Americans have the political will to lose ships or aircraft to the Chinese. Trump won the election by stating he would not start any wars. Taiwan must face the fact that it will be alone during the blockade.

China would face global condemnation for the blockade, but it will likely ignore the international community. Taiwan does not have the military muscle to stop a blockade. The United States does not want to risk blood and treasure to defend the island. China would only need to cut off energy supplies to Taiwan for up to a month before Taipei would give in to Chinese demands. China has the military to make this happen, and they have conducted aerial and maritime exercises to show Taiwan that it is serious about a potential blockade. Let’s hope the Chinese decide to refrain from this operation because it would likely be successful in ultimately forcing Taiwan to bend to its will.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.