Russia Preps for Fresh Kyiv Offensive – Russia’s political leadership has ordered its military to prepare possible scenarios for operations toward Kyiv and Chernihiv, a top Ukrainian official claimed on Saturday, even as Moscow faces slow battlefield gains and escalating economic pressure at home.
Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential office, said the information came from Ukrainian intelligence and had been checked against several sources.
Tu-160 Bomber from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Tu-160M Bomber Air Force. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“We have indeed received information from intelligence agencies, verified by several sources,” Palisa said, adding that Russia’s military leadership had been instructed to plan several possible operations toward the two northern cities.
Nevertheless, Palisa suggested there was a world of difference between signs of planning and an actual impending attack, stressing that: “The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has developed possible response scenarios, including measures to defend, protect, and counter these actions.”
Moscow’s ‘Buffer Zone’
Palisa said Saturday that Kyiv was seeing a “trend towards a decrease in the pace” of Russian advances along an active front stretching roughly 1,200 kilometers. He also said Moscow still wants to create a so-called buffer zone in parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions, potentially extending about 20 kilometers into Ukrainian territory.
Russia, however, continues to claim gains. Its Defense Ministry said Saturday that its forces had captured Khrapivshchyna in the Sumy region and Novoandriivka and Rubizhne in Donetsk. Reuters said it could not independently verify the claims.
At the same time, Russian air attacks are ramping up. On Saturday, Ukrainian officials said at least 37 people were killed after a Russian drone strike on a warehouse storing weapons in the Kyiv region.
The area has been under attack for three consecutive days, with President Volodymyr Zelensky describing the capital as under “virtually non-stop attack” from high-speed drones.
Slow Movement on the Ground
The New York Times reported Friday that Russia had achieved a net territorial gain of only 68 square miles since June 1, citing the Finland-based Black Bird Group. Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, said Putin’s calculation is that Russia does not need to be doing well; it only needs to outlast Ukraine
“Russia needs to do just better than Ukraine,” Gabuev said, with Putin apparently expecting Kyiv eventually “is going to crumble.”
Ukraine’s ongoing shortage of air-defense interceptors and manpower also acts in Russia’s favor. It has carried on building ballistic missiles and has also drawn on North Korean weapon stockpiles.
Still, what Kyiv lacks in manpower it has surely made up for in innovation.
Writing for the Atlantic Council think tank in July, autonomous systems expert David Kirichenko noted how “an invasion that aimed to ‘demilitarize’ Ukraine has instead transformed the country into one of Europe’s leading military powers.
“Just four years ago, Ukraine possessed only a handful of domestic drone manufacturers. Today, it is rapidly becoming the world’s largest producer of combat drones,” he went on.
Ukrainian Strikes Cause Russian Gasoline Production to Plunge
Reuters reported Friday that Russian gasoline production had fallen to about 70% of domestic consumption after Ukrainian drone strikes forced major refineries in Perm, Nizhny Novgorod, and Yaroslavl to halt operations.
Output fell to around 80,000 metric tons a day against estimated summer demand of about 115,000 tons, forcing Moscow to import more fuel and maintain sales restrictions.
Russian public opinion on the conflict is complex. The independent Levada Center found in July that a majority still backed the actions of Russia’s armed forces, but nearly two-thirds favored moving to peace negotiations. More than half also backed intensifying strikes on Ukraine.
Russia Dismisses Peace Talks
There is little immediate sign that Moscow intends to trade escalation for talks.
“The issue of peace negotiations is currently on hold, and there are no new ideas,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday. He added that Russia would continue military operations because Kyiv had not accepted Moscow’s terms.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe also made a rare visit to Moscow this week. Reuters reported that two sources said Ratcliffe raised the possibility of a Russian operation against a NATO member, though it was unclear whether that was the main purpose of his visit. President Donald Trump has publicly said he does not believe Putin will attack NATO.
So far, Putin has shown little sign that Russia’s mounting economic and military issues are changing his approach. As Gabuev put it, the Russian leader appears to believe Moscow only needs to hold out until Ukraine ‘is going to crumble.’ There is no sign of Putin’s hope materializing any time soon.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
