1 Million Casualties: Putin Opened a Military ‘Pandora’s Box’ in Ukraine

Key Points – Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense announced on Wednesday, June 11th, that Russian military casualties have surpassed the one million mark since the full-scale invasion began in 2022.

-This “grisly milestone,” which aligns with Western intelligence estimates, is largely attributed to Russia’s “meat assault” tactics—using waves of poorly trained soldiers to overwhelm Ukrainian positions.

-While Russia has so far sustained these losses by offering massive financial incentives to contract soldiers, analysts argue this economic model is under strain.

-The Kremlin avoids further mass mobilization due to domestic political risks, creating questions about the long-term sustainability of its war effort in Ukraine.

The Ukraine War Is a Military Pandora’s Box

In more than three years of war, Russian casualties in the war in Ukraine have now passed the one million mark, at least according to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense.

One Million Russian Casualties: Ukraine Claims a ‘Grisly Milestone’ in the War

Per the Ministry’s social media post on Wednesday, the list of “eliminated personnel” has now exceeded a million, on top of massive losses of weaponry: over 10,000 tanks, nearly 23,000 armored fighting vehicles, over 29,000 artillery systems, and more than 40,000 UAVs.

It’s clear exactly how accurate Kyiv’s statistics are, although according to the Associated Press, those figures are “in line with Western intelligence estimates.”

In a report in early June, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) had predicted that Russia would reach the 1 million casualty mark shortly, calling it “a stunning and grisly milestone.”

Russia has not commented on the alleged milestone, which arrived on Russia Day, the AP said. Russia had claimed, earlier this year, that Ukraine had suffered a million casualties of its own. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy said earlier this year that, up to that point, 45,100 troops had been killed and about 390,000 injured.

“Overall, a high of 250,000 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine, with over 950,000 total Russian casualties, a sign of Putin’s blatant disregard for his soldiers,” CSIS said in its report, pointing out that Russia had lost “roughly five times as many fatalities in Ukraine as in all Russian and Soviet wars combined between the end of World War II and the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.”

“Meat Assaults” in Ukraine War

How did the Russians lose that many soldiers in three years?

According to Newsweek, it’s the way they have fought the war.

“Moscow is known for what have been dubbed ‘meat assaults,’ or using waves of many soldiers, often lacking sufficient training or adequate equipment, to attack Ukrainian positions,” Newsweek said in its writeup of the news. “Casualty counts, as reported by Kyiv, have typically spiked during prolonged attacks on fortified Ukrainian positions, such as on the Donetsk cities of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.”

Economy Also Hits the “Breaking Point” 

The Kyiv Independent also addressed the reports of Russia crossing the million-casualty mark. The Independent predicted that the milestone is “unlikely to prompt a change in tactics” on Russia’s part.

“Vladimir Putin made a fundamental strategic mistake in deciding how to resource this war,” George Barros, Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), told the Kyiv Independent.

“What Vladimir Putin has done is he has created a system in which he doesn’t use the monopoly of violence of the Russian state to coerce Russians to go fight and die in Ukraine, as the Soviet Union might have. What Putin has done is he’s created an alternative social contract where he pays you to go fight in Ukraine.”

What’s likely to ultimately hurt Russia, that report said, is the mounting economic pressure on Russia.

As noted in the analysis, Russia operates both a contract army and another consisting of conscripts. Eventually, Putin’s regime is going to have to pay more people to fight.

“It is the only way of recruitment for the war now because ideologically motivated recruits ended in spring-summer 2022 and partial mobilization of the fall 2022 created domestic political tensions and risks which were considered as unacceptable for the Kremlin in those circumstances,” Pavel Luzin, senior fellow with the Democratic Resilience Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told the Independent.

And the payments have gotten more expensive as the war has gone on.

“There are some oblasts in central Russia that are offering up to $40,000, 3 million rubles plus, just for a one-time sign-up bonus,” Barros told the Independent.

About the Author:

Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter

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