Forget Ukraine: Which NATO Country Could Putin Invade Next?

Key Points – Amid Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and a potential drift in US commitment to NATO, certain Eastern European alliance members face a heightened risk of Russian aggression.

-Lithuania is particularly vulnerable due to its border with Kaliningrad and Belarus, creating the strategic “Suwalki Gap.”

-Estonia is also at risk, especially in the majority-Russian city of Narva, where Moscow could use hybrid warfare to foment ethnic tensions as a pretext for intervention.

-Finally, Germany, as Europe’s economic powerhouse and host to a large US military presence, is a prime target for Russian sabotage and espionage designed to test NATO’s resolve.

The NATO Countries Most at Risk of Russian Military Strikes or Invasion

Russia’s imperial irredentism, or a push toward the restoration of the Soviet Union, has heightened under Vladimir Putin, with ambitions far beyond Ukraine.

NATO members and, in particular, Eastern Europe are increasingly alarmed by Russia’s renewed aggression that could ultimately spill over onto their borders.

Key NATO countries could face Russian aggression, as reports emerge that the Kremlin may test Article 5 of the mutual defense clause to assess whether its military resolve is concrete and decisive in the face of an attack—especially as the current American administration drifts away from the alliance.

Several key countries in the region are actively preparing for a potential attack from Russia, driven by both strategic and historical considerations. If NATO fails to respond tactfully, the European continent could face destabilization not seen since the late 1930s.

Lithuania

One of NATO’s smallest members, Lithuania, is one of Ukraine’s top military backers in terms of per capita GDP. With a history of fighting against Russian imperialism, such as the Forest Brothers insurgency, Vilnius remains on alert for Moscow’s threats.

Lithuania is geographically in a precarious position, as the country shares borders with Kaliningrad, a part of Russia, and Belarus. Sharing a border with Poland, both Vilnius and Warsaw are frontline countries of NATO’s vulnerable Suwalki Gap.

The Suwalki Gap represents the shortest pathway to connect Kaliningrad to Belarus. The latter is all but a Russian-front state under longtime autocrat Alexander Lukashenko. The gap is one of NATO’s weak points, easily exploited by Russian aggression in the future.

Vilnius has faced hybrid warfare from Minsk and Moscow as both countries have trafficked migrants towards Lithuania’s borders on numerous occasions. Russia could use Belarus as a starting point for any future war on Lithuania, akin to the start of the full-fledged invasion against Ukraine in 2022.

Ideally, satellite imagery and signals intelligence (SIGINT) could show a Russian military buildup in Belarus, which would give Lithuania and NATO time to prepare and mobilize. Russia would test the limits it could push Article 5, especially with a growing Western populist stance that could see Lithuania as too small to risk “nuclear war” with.

Estonia

Bordering Russia, Estonia is also a major military backer of Ukraine per capita and a country whose territory Moscow still partially occupies. Geographically positioned only a few dozen meters away from Russia, with the Narva River serving as a barrier, Estonia could be in a precarious situation with Russian aggression and hybrid warfare.

Narva could become a flashpoint of the same playbook the Kremlin used against Ukraine, as the city has a majority Russian population stemming from the Second World War. During WWII, Narva was a flashpoint of brutal urban warfare between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union on the Baltic Front as the Wehrmacht occupied the Estonian city.

Amidst Soviet counterattacks, the German military evacuated Estonian residents, and Narva was left desolate. Soviet dictator Josef Stalin would repopulate the city with ethnic Russians, which changed the demographic outlook in Narva and remains that way to this day.

The ethnic Russians in Narva are becoming sympathetic to Putin’s regime and the war. Integration remains a significant obstacle for the Estonian government—especially due to Talinn’s ‘grey status’ when the USSR collapsed. Russia already has diplomatic conflicts with Baltic countries, such as Estonia, over language laws. Putin could further expand on this post-Ukraine.

The Kremlin could enact false pretexts for future armed conflict, such as “protecting Russian speakers,” as seen with their casus bellis against Ukraine. With an overwhelming Russian-majority population in Narva, the Kremlin could enact information and hybrid warfare to stoke ethnic tensions and conduct intelligence and sabotage.

Nevertheless, Narva is heavily militarized, which gives NATO time to respond to any provocations. However, due to the drift between America and NATO, along with the response times of Western European militaries that struggle with recruitment and retention, Moscow could test Tallin’s will if the alliance continues to show cracks.

Germany

Arguably, Russia’s ultimate prize for fully dismantling the NATO alliance could be the instigation of provocations against Germany. This historical rival hosts the most significant presence of American forces in Europe and represents Europe’s leading economic powerhouse.

Germany is at the forefront of Russian sabotage, espionage, and hybrid warfare efforts on the continent—especially as Berlin has been subject to criticisms over past policies of being dependent on Russian energy, which President Trump also criticized.

Initially slow to aid Ukraine, Germany has transformed itself into a significant military backer and has likewise recognized that its defense capabilities need to be upgraded. Currently, the Bundeswehr has plans to revitalize the country’s military, aiming to make it the largest in Europe to counter and deter Russian threats. Recent reports suggest Berlin could potentially become a target of Moscow to test Article 5.

Arguably, one of the most significant sources of discontent in NATO stems from the current Trump administration’s stance on wanting NATO members to spend more on their militaries—particularly Germany, which is a top-five global economy. However, until 2025, Germany had fallen short of the 2% GDP allocation for defense. With rumors that the US could potentially withdraw troops from Europe in the future, most logistical movements would likely originate from Germany, which the Bundeswehr needs to prepare for contingencies.

Russia’s ultimate Article 5 test to delegitimize and dismantle NATO and the European Union could be conventional or unconventional strikes on Germany, as any lack of reciprocated response would show that the defensive alliance is truly dead. Russia could use similar methods to Ukraine’s Spiderweb operation and launch drones or cruise missiles through unconventional methods via smuggling to decapitate Germany’s infrastructure, which Berlin needs to prepare contingencies for.

Today, diplomatic fracturing, a lack of coalition building, and the absence of concrete deterrence measures have left NATO in a precarious situation, and Russia is even more emboldened.

Because of this, countries such as Lithuania, Estonia, and Germany are ever more at risk from Russian conventional or unconventional warfare to test NATO’s Article 5 response.

About the Author: Julian McBride

Julian McBride is a forensic anthropologist and independent journalist born in New York. He is the founder and director of the Reflections of War Initiative (ROW), an anthropological NGO which aims to tell the stories of the victims of war through art therapy. As a former Marine, he uses this technique not only to help heal PTSD but also to share people’s stories through art, which conveys “the message of the brutality of war better than most news organizations.” Julian is also a new National Security Journal Contributing Editor.

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