Key Points – China is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal, possessing over 600 operational warheads as of December 2024, with projections exceeding 1,000 by 2030.
-This buildup includes the completion of three new ICBM silo fields and an increase in road-mobile ICBM launchers, alongside development of its submarine and bomber nuclear capabilities.
-While Beijing officially maintains a “no-first-use” policy and a doctrine of “minimum deterrence,” its growing arsenal and diversifying delivery systems raise concerns about a potential shift towards using nuclear weapons to more actively compel opponents or safeguard core interests, such as in a Taiwan contingency.
China’s Nuclear Arsenal Hits 600+ Warheads: Aiming for 1,000 by 2030?
China now possesses over 600 operational nuclear warheads, the Pentagon reported back in December, about 100 more than last year’s estimate. It is expected that by 2030, the Chinese nuclear arsenal will number over 1000 warheads.
That is a significant threat to the United States. The Federation of American Scientists said in the report “Chinese Nuclear Weapons, 2025” that the Chinese can deliver their nuclear weapons through land-based and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, as well as bombers.
Beijing is continuing its rapid nuclear expansion, intending to field a “world-class” military by 2049 that can “resolutely safeguard” the country’s sovereignty, security, and development interests.
China’s Nuclear Doctrine
China’s nuclear deterrence doctrine, which is frequently referred to as “minimum deterrence,” is primarily focused on deterring nuclear attacks against China by ensuring the ability to retaliate with a formidable second strike. It is based on a “no-first-use” policy, meaning China will only use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear attack.
The 2022 United States Nuclear Posture Review noted that China has embarked on an ambitious expansion, modernization, and diversification of its nuclear forces, establishing a developing nuclear triad.
Despite its deterrence doctrine, China now has a higher likelihood of using its newfound nuclear power to more actively deter or compel its opponents and safeguard its core interests. This includes perceived external threats that could negatively impact domestic political interests.
The Atlantic Council believes that Taiwan is a near-existential threat to Xi Jinping’s rule in China.
“A failed Chinese invasion of Taiwan, without a credible off-ramp for China to claim victory, could threaten Xi’s reign. Even if the CCP and its rule over China persist under difficult conditions, the need to prevent such failure likely would justify the use of any and all measures, including nuclear employment, once the invasion is underway.”
Where Does China Stand Today With Nuclear Weapons?
The FAS Nuclear Notebook is considered the most reliable public source for information on global nuclear arsenals for all nine nuclear-armed states. FAS has played a critical role for almost 80 years in increasing transparency and accountability over the world’s nuclear arsenals and in supporting policies that reduce the numbers and risks of their use.
Despite its lightning progress in the past few years, China is not a nuclear “peer” of the United States, as many believe. China’s total number of approximately 600 warheads constitutes only a small portion of the United States’ estimated stockpile of 3,700 warheads.
While the United States has a fully established triad of strategic forces, China is still developing its nuclear triad; the submarine-based leg has significantly less capability, and the bomber leg is far less capable than that of the United States.
China’s ICBMs are considered the most survivable nuclear force by Beijing. The Chinese PLA has completed construction of its three new ICBM silo fields, one of which was publicly disclosed by FAS in 2021.
It is estimated that about 30 silos have been loaded. China has also increased the number of road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) bases.
China has 550 launchers for 400 ICBMs, which is 50 more than last year’s estimate. The US military has 450 silos with Minuteman III ICBMs, including 400 silos loaded with deployed nuclear missiles and another 50 silos reserved for stored missiles.
China’s SSBNs are now conducting continuous patrols with nuclear weapons on board. However, Chinese SSBNs cannot target the continental United States from their current operating areas. They can easily target Guam, Hawaii, and Alaska. The improved Type 096 missile submarine has been delayed.
Regardless of their stated minimum deterrence policy, FAS has confirmed that “China is believed to have the fastest-growing nuclear arsenal among the nine nuclear-armed states; it is the only Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons that is significantly increasing its nuclear arsenal.”
China will continue its nuclear expansion as it has stopped engaging in arms control talks with Washington.
Senior Colonel Wu Qian, spokesperson for the Chinese Defense Ministry, said at a press conference in late February, “I want to point out that China commits itself to a policy of no-first-use of nuclear weapons, pursues a nuclear strategy of self-defense, and keeps our nuclear strength at the minimum level required for national security.”
Meanwhile, the US is modernizing its nuclear force to counter two strategic competitors, China and Russia, that have large and growing nuclear arsenals.
About the Author:
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
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