On paper, Russia’s Sukhoi Su-57 Felon is a terrifying machine. It is Moscow’s answer to America’s F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II, a fifth-generation stealth fighter designed to challenge Western air supremacy.
With its sleek lines, advanced avionics, super-maneuverability, and a robust suite of sensors and weapons, the Su-57 represents the pinnacle of Russian aerospace ambition.
It is a symbol of the Kremlin’s desire to project power and stand shoulder to shoulder with the United States as a global military peer.
But that’s where things start go from what looks good on paper to a brutal reality.
Russia’s Su-57 Felon Has A Numbers Problem
But in the brutal calculus of modern warfare, ambition doesn’t win battles. Numbers do.
And that is the Su-57’s single greatest, and perhaps fatal, flaw.
For all its impressive capabilities, the Felon is a ghost—a phantom fleet that exists more on paper and in airshow demonstrations than it does as a credible fighting force.
Its biggest problem isn’t its technology, but the stark, unavoidable reality of its abysmally low production numbers.
Take it from me, having studied weapons platforms for years: a fighter jet’s effectiveness is not just about its individual performance, but about its ability to be produced, deployed, and sustained in meaningful quantities.
This is where the Su-57 program falters dramatically. As of today, the Russian Air Force operates a fleet that can likely be counted on two hands.
While exact figures are shrouded in secrecy, it is estimated that fewer than 30 serial production aircraft have been delivered, with some of those being little more than advanced prototypes.
What That Means In Practice
Let’s put that into perspective. The United States has produced over 1,000 F-35s, with hundreds more F-22s built before that production line closed.
Our allies are flying hundreds of F-35s as well.
This isn’t just a numbers gap; it’s a chasm. It means that for every one Su-57 Russia might be able to get into the air, the U.S. and its partners can field dozens of fifth-generation fighters to counter it.
Wargame It Out
Imagine a conflict scenario in Eastern Europe. Russia might be able to deploy a handful of Su-57s to a frontline airbase. These jets would certainly be a threat to NATO aircraft. But how long could they operate? What happens when one is shot down, or when another requires complex maintenance after just a few sorties?
With no deep bench of reserve aircraft to draw from, and with a struggling industrial base that can only trickle out a few new airframes per year, Russia’s fifth-generation force would be attrited into irrelevance within days, if not hours.
The Ukraine War and the Su-57 Felon
The war in Ukraine has laid this problem bare for the world to see.
Despite the Su-57 technically being in service, its presence over the battlefield has been fleeting at best.
Russia has been hesitant to risk its prized, and exceedingly rare, asset in a contested air environment where it could be shot down, exposing its technological secrets and dealing a massive propaganda blow to Moscow.
Instead, they have reportedly used it sparingly to launch long-range missiles from the safety of Russian airspace—a mission that a far cheaper, more numerous Su-35 could accomplish just as well. The Su-57 is too valuable to risk, because it is too difficult to replace.
Why Is This Happening?
This production crisis stems from deep-rooted issues.
Russia’s defense industry has been hollowed out by years of underinvestment, corruption, and now, crippling international sanctions that cut off access to vital Western microelectronics and machine tools.
The initial plan for the Su-57 called for hundreds of aircraft to be in service by now. The reality is a boutique fleet, handcrafted at a glacial pace. The program also suffered a major setback when India, once a key partner and source of funding, pulled out of the joint development, citing concerns over costs, delays, and the aircraft’s stealth performance.
Felon Flop
This is the uncomfortable truth Moscow must face. The Su-57 Felon, for all its technological promise, is currently a failed program in strategic terms. It cannot shape a battlefield, it cannot win air superiority, and it cannot credibly challenge the combined might of Western airpower because it simply does not exist in sufficient numbers.
It is a potent symbol, but a weak instrument. Unless Russia can somehow overcome its profound industrial limitations—a prospect that seems increasingly unlikely—its fifth-generation fighter will remain a phantom, a ghost of the superpower air force it was meant to be.
More About Harry Kazianis
Harry J. Kazianis (@Grecianformula) is Editor-In-Chief and President of National Security Journal. He was the former Senior Director of National Security Affairs at the Center for the National Interest (CFTNI), a foreign policy think tank founded by Richard Nixon based in Washington, DC. Harry has over a decade of experience in think tanks and national security publishing. His ideas have been published in the NY Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and many other outlets worldwide. He has held positions at CSIS, the Heritage Foundation, the University of Nottingham, and several other institutions related to national security research and studies. He holds a Master’s degree focusing on international affairs from Harvard University.
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