Taiwan Has a ‘Secret Weapon’ to Beat a Chinese Invasion: Drones

Key Points – Learning critical lessons from the war in Ukraine, Taiwan is rapidly expanding its drone program to build an effective asymmetric defense against a potential Chinese invasion.

-Taipei is investing heavily in a multi-layered drone force, including short-range kamikaze drones for anti-personnel/vehicle roles, loitering munitions for top-down attacks on armor, and larger drones capable of carrying missiles like the Hellfire.

-While its current stockpile is insufficient, Taiwan is bolstering its indigenous production capabilities, diversifying its supply chain away from Chinese components, and making international purchases, including 1,000 combat drones and four MQ-9B SkyGuardians from the United States.

Taiwan’s Drone Program Is Taking Off

I first started writing about drones in early 2001. They were called unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) at the time, and they were primarily used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions. Shortly after 9/11, the United States mated its first UAV with an air-to-ground missile and began taking out Taliban targets in Afghanistan. I later analyzed the advent of autonomous kamikaze drone swarms in a 2021 book on future warfare. Still, I never predicted just how much unmanned craft would transform numerous battles and engagements during the conflict in Ukraine.

Taiwan Has Learned Much From Ukraine and Russia

Taiwan is taking a close look at the Russo-Ukrainian war. Battle planners in Taipei know they will have to fight with asymmetrical means against the Chinese if an amphibious assault from Xi Jinping’s troops ever takes place. This means the Taiwanese government must invest in a huge drone program to fight back effectively.

Investing Time, Resources, and Money Into Taiwanese Drone Program

Taiwan is now loosening its purse strings and expanding its drone stockpile. The Defense Post describes several different types of unmanned systems that Taipei is considering. The supply is mainly made up of kamikaze drones. The first type of drone being purchased is for short-range destruction. These are for enemy locations where fighters are dug in, and tanks and armored personnel carriers are close by.

The second type is the drones that can be launched to carry loitering munitions for kamikaze-style attacks. Think of these as powerful flying grenades that can also go after dismounted troops or armored vehicles. They land on the tops of tanks and APCs where the armor is lightest to blow up the enemy weapons systems. This is much like the drone combat in Ukraine and Russia. These first-person view drones or FPVs are easy to make and operate, plus they are cheap to purchase

The last type of drones being acquired by Taiwan are the larger units that can carry air-to-surface missiles, such as the Hellfire missile. These larger crafts are easier to shoot down by the enemy but carry more firepower that could eliminate substantial Chinese targets, such as landing craft or barges, if needed, someday during an amphibious attack.

Taiwan Is Busy With International Drone Partners

In 2024, Taiwan agreed to buy 1,000 new combat drones from the United States. To broaden its sources of supply, Taipei is currently working with Lithuania to purchase more technology for the indigenous production of unmanned craft.

“The Taiwanese government has also ordered four additional MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones from General Atomics to bolster its surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities,” the Defense Post stated.

This procurement program is badly needed. Taiwan may currently have as little as 1,000 drones, according to Bloomberg. That would be gravely insufficient if China were to attack. The homegrown industry is working as quickly as possible, but it relies on imports of Chinese components. Taiwan’s industrial base is trying to diversify its drone supply chain, but this takes time.

Taiwan has the edge in semiconductor development, boasting a substantial supply of chips and microprocessors. Engineers who are experts in advanced manufacturing can easily transition to drone production, and assembly lines are nimble enough to be reconfigured for unmanned systems.

China Dominates in Drone Production

Still, China owns 90 percent of the unmanned craft market, according to Drone Industry Insights. Taiwan cannot depend on China to supply it with the components it desperately needs to bolster its homegrown drone production efforts.

Taiwan is working with more urgency on its drone production. “Within less than a year, the country has established partnerships with companies in Asia, Europe, and the U.S.; quadrupled the size of its Taiwan Excellence Drone International Business Opportunities Alliance [Tediboa] to 200 members from 50; and broken ground on a drone industrial park near the southwestern city of Chiayi. Overall, the government is spending $1.35 billion between 2024 and 2028 to develop the [drone] sector, according to Aviation Week.

Incorporating Drones Into Taiwan’s Battle Plan

The next aspect of drone warfare against a potential Chinese invasion would be tactics and operational art. Where does Taiwan deploy the drones? How does it store them? What about training? Can the drones be transferred to the amphibious landing zones quickly enough to stop the Chinese?

These questions, and many more, must be answered. Taiwan should also train as they would fight. Military schools must prepare soldiers to operate loitering munitions and other unmanned systems to take out landing craft, tanks, and armored personnel carriers. Then, integrate various combat capabilities to devise a comprehensive military strategy for defending the island.

And that’s just the ground fight. What about Chinese aircraft? Taiwan needs a way to destroy airplanes and helicopters with drones. Not to mention counter-drone systems to combat China’s own extensive unmanned force.

I have confidence in Taiwan, though. The generals and battle planners have received the message from the war in Ukraine loud and clear. Purchase agreements are solidifying with international suppliers. The indigenous drone industry is taking off. Taiwan’s best and brightest are focusing on the production of drones, knowing their country could be taken over by China. Whichever side can dominate in drone warfare could tip the balance in conflict. Unmanned systems are here to stay on the battlefield, and Taiwan must evolve into a 21st-century drone power to ready its forces for a potential Chinese invasion.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.

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