We are so used to Vladimir Putin leading Russia that it rarely seems that there could be a different president someday. He has created a cult of personality, eliminated all opposition, and limited dissent so well that there is no reason to believe that even a violent coup could take him down. But he can’t live forever. There are usually reports discussing his various health issues, but these are often just internet rumors. Putin just keeps ticking.
He may also be hiding in an underground command center, fearing assassination from Ukrainian drone strikes. He is definitely a marked man. There is also no clear succession plan if he were removed from power or died for some reason.
Putin in May 2025. Image Credit: Russian Federation Government.
Russia Is Exceptional
Putin is obviously a thorn in the side of the West. He believes in an exceptional Russia with a dominant culture and a clear mode of leadership over the former Soviet republics and satellite states. He wants to undermine NATO and see the alliance splinter. He hypes Russia as a world leader. Putin has created a new axis of evil that comprises military and economic partnerships with China, North Korea, Iran, and Cuba.
Know What Makes Putin Tick
The West must realize that Putin will not stop until he achieves all of these objectives. Most observers are familiar with the Russian dictator’s war with Ukraine and believe that thwarting Russia on the battlefield and giving arms and money to Kyiv is the only aspect of countering the Kremlin that is possible. But the United States and its allies need to realize what makes Putin tick, and that is to glorify and strengthen Russia in many ways – not just in warfare.
British Academic and Foreign Policy Expert Has a Plan to Thwart Putin
Timothy Garton Ash of Oxford University, writing for the European Council on Foreign Relations, proposes a multi-pronged strategy to mitigate Putin’s power and influence. Ash believes it is important to stay the course against Russia, which means providing more advanced weaponry and funding for Ukraine. The downfall of Hungary’s Viktor Orban, who lost his recent election, will unlock significant European Union funds to bolster Kyiv.
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Stop the War
Ash agrees with my assessment of the war. This is a stalemate that will likely become a frozen conflict with a tenuous ceasefire that would stop activity along the current front lines. I go further than Ash and believe that the best way to keep the peace is to establish a Korea-like demilitarized zone.
Can Sanctions Work?
The next prong of Ash’s strategy against Putin and Russia is to continue economic warfare against the Kremlin. This will keep the pressure on, ensure lower GDP growth in Russia, and cause more jobs to evaporate. This economic power move should be combined with strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure. I’m less bullish on the efficacy of sanctions on the Russian economy. With global oil prices high from the Strait of Hormuz crisis, it will be difficult to hurt Russia in the pocketbook.
No More Russian Invasions of Its Neighbors
Keeping Russia from attacking another neighbor is paramount in the anti-Putin strategy. Russia is on a war footing with its military industrial complex spun up to create more military hardware. The country has lost perhaps 500,000 dead in Ukraine, but the survivors are battle-hardened and skilled at modern warfare. The West and NATO must realize that Russia should be kept down and out, backed by a firm commitment to the alliance. More defense spending by European countries is paramount to deter Putin.
T-64 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Talk to All Russian People
Ash has a good idea that I haven’t thought about. He believes the West’s communication strategy focuses on speaking to Putin. But what about targeting messages to the Russian people?
“More important is talking to three other Russian constituencies: business, professional, and even bureaucratic elites still in the country; wider Russian society; and the ‘Other Russia,’ now living largely outside Russia and desiring the defeat of Putin more fervently than anyone,” Ash wrote.
Promote Democracy in Europe
The West should also prepare for populist and nationalist political parties around Europe that support Putin. These groups must be defeated at the ballot box to make sure the anti-Russia coalition stays united and effective to counter the Kremlin.
Ash also thinks that Europeans must stand together and improve their own democracies. This assumes that foreign policy begins at home and that Western democracies should set a global example of individual rights and protection of minorities with free and fair elections that promote pro-democratic candidates.
Europe Must Defend Itself
My own strategy is to concentrate first on a ceasefire and on establishing a demilitarized zone. This war needs to stop before the other aspects of the strategy can work. I also prefer that each NATO country spend at least 2 to 5 percent of its GDP on defense. Europe must make more sacrifices to defend itself from Russia.
Economic Warfare May Not Be the Most Effective Strategy
I am skeptical that sanctions and economic war will work. Russia is resilient, and many ordinary citizens do not even want to buy goods and services from the United States and Europe. The trade embargo has not been effective.
Support a Freedom Agenda
I do agree with Ash that foreign policy starts at home and that the West needs to improve its own democracies before criticizing authoritarian regimes. There also needs to be a strategic contingency plan to deal with Russia if Putin is removed from power or dies.
The West must have a strategy for Russia that all states aligning against Putin can execute in unison. These recommendations look good on paper, but they must be executed skillfully with political resolve. The actions against Putin could take years. Just take the multi-decade Cold War that required a long-range containment policy to weaken the Soviet Union.
Putin can be defeated, but it will take much strategic coordination and patience before the West can declare victory over Russia.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
