Could Vladimir Putin grow so frustrated with the war in Ukraine that he would somehow attack the Baltics?
Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have high concentrations of ethnic Russian-speaking citizens – sometimes up to 20 to 25 percent who consider themselves aligned with Moscow. Putin could make the case that since the ethnic Russians in the Baltics are being discriminated against, persecuted, and suppressed, it is time to invade or somehow attack the Baltic nations to show the world that the former Soviet republics should always be part of Russia.
The Propaganda Mill Is Churning Again
Secretary of the Army, Hon. Dan Driscoll, fires a round from a M1A2 Abrams Tank while visiting Fort Stewart, GA., June 23, 2025. Secretary Driscoll met with Soldiers and leaders from the 3rd Infantry Division implementing transformation in contact initiatives, and had candid conversations with Soldiers about quality of life concerns to help find solutions to scale across the Army. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. David Resnick)
Putin loves propaganda narratives that undergird his military strategy. The war in Ukraine was based on his belief that Russia must eliminate the leadership of the country because it is full of Nazis. This accusation was trumpeted all over Russian state-run media outlets. Many soldiers and their supporters back home believed that the war was meant to “De-Nazify” Ukraine.
The Poisonous Russian TV News Industry
Putin could communicate to the populace that parts of the Baltics belong to Russia and that Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are “fake states” that should not have sovereignty and self-rule.
The level of propaganda that Russian media, especially in televised news, extol is significant.
An estimated 70 percent of the populace gets its news from television. Putin only has to convince his minions on broadcast news to set their sights on the Baltics as the next group of states that need to be “cleansed.”
Helping Ethnic Russians Become Loyal to Moscow
Putin also seeks to allow ethnic Russians in the Baltics to attain Russian citizenship and to renounce the government of Baltic capitalists. This is called passportization and is an example of Russian cultural chauvinism. Putin believes in the need to dominate the Near Abroad.
This is the grouping of former Soviet republics and satellite states that should be loyal to Moscow. Putin believes that Russia owns the Near Abroad territory.
Forbes: Russian Attack on the Baltics Is Coming Soon
Steve Forbes, writing in Forbes Magazine, is convinced that an attack on the Baltic states is inevitable. He noted that Putin is already making threats to these countries, and the Russians have even flown drones in the vicinity of Lithuania. Russian cyberattacks are also targeting the Baltic region. A full-on military operation could happen anytime, Forbes claims, and Putin will use the excuse that he is “rescuing” ethnic Russians. Much in the same way that Hitler thought that Germans were suffering in Czechoslovakia in 1938.
FORT MOORE , Ga. Maneuver Center of Excellence hosts the 2024 Armor Week media day on Harmony Church Mar. 14, 2024. The event featured live-fire demonstrations with the M1 Abrams Main Battle Tank, and an opportunity to get up close and hands-on with M1 Abrams and M2 Bradley Fighting Vehicle. Armor Week, April 29 to May 3, and the 2024 Sullivan Cup competition requires mastery of individual tasks, technical and tactical competence, and the ability to demonstrate an array of maneuver, sustainment, and gunnery skills. The competition focuses primarily on the performance of the Soldiers functioning as a crew. (U.S. Army photo by Patrick A. Albright)
How Will NATO and America Respond?
The next question is whether NATO would invoke Article V of the collective defense treaty to intervene militarily in a Russian military action against one or more of the Baltic states. A Baltic war would require the alliance to fight back. Moreover, it is not clear if President Donald Trump would order American forces in Germany, Poland, and other European countries to strike Russia. Trump believes that Poland is a good ally that supports his presidency. Germany is ready to spend more on defense. These two countries would be critical to counter-attack Russia in a war to protect the Baltics.
World War Three Ensues
This could create World War Three. Conflict in the Middle East, coupled with a powerful China, would be utterly destructive. China could try to attack and annex Taiwan while the United States is occupied with Iran and Russia in the Baltics. Russia and China could then coordinate a military action that would prevent the Americans from responding.
“We should boost aid to Ukraine and fortify our position with our European allies. None of this precludes taking the proper steps to deter China. The only real impediment is our will to do what’s necessary for our safety and that of the Free World,” Forbes wrote.
U.S. Soldiers assigned to 2nd Battalion, 70th Armor Regiment, 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division supporting the 4th Infantry Division, maneuver an M1A2 Abrams tank while participating in a combined arms rehearsal during Anakonda23 at Nowa Deba, Poland, May 14, 2023. Anakonda23 is Poland’s premier national exercise that strives to train, integrate and maintain tactical readiness and increase interoperability in a joint multinational environment, complimenting the 4th Inf. Div.’s mission in Europe, which is to participate in multinational training and exercises across the continent while collaborating with NATO allies and regional security partners to provide combat-credible forces to V Corps, America’s Forward deployed corps in Europe. (U.S. Army National Guard photo by Sgt. 1st Class Theresa Gualdarama)
Do We Really Have a Global Coalition of Democracies?
But what is the Free World these days? During the Cold War, it was clear. Many countries either aligned with the United States and NATO or with the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact. This was an obvious division of the world, and the strategy of containment against the Soviets was paramount.
‘CRINK’ Is Rearing Its Ugly Head
Now there is the new “CRINK” axis of evil that comprises China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Russia could get support from these countries in an attack on the Baltic states. The CRINK group would see that America and NATO would be quickly weakened by intervening. The Europeans are preparing for war as best they can, but aside from participating in the U.S. operation against the Taliban in Afghanistan, many NATO allies have no recent combat experience. Meanwhile, the Americans led by Trump are skeptical of NATO and believe that it must be reformed and modernized for 21st-century warfare.
Baltic Governments Should Rule With Caution
The various governments of the Baltic nations must be aware of how they treat citizens who speak Russian and identify with Moscow. Many of these Russian supporters in the Baltics also watch Kremlin-backed TV news programs. If they thought they were undermined by policy makers in Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia, Putin would surely focus his propaganda apparatus on the Baltics and attempt to undermine democracy there.
The Need for a Western Contingency Plan
Putin may not have the military forces to invade the Baltic states, but it is important to have a contingency plan if he does. Past wargames have shown that Russia could quickly take Latvia with few casualties, but these simulations usually do not include a NATO response. The best way to keep an eye on Putin’s plans for the Baltics is to monitor Russian TV news.
M1 Abrams Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
This gives clues as to where the wind is blowing in Russia. The democratic governments in the Baltics must also be sure not to instigate new laws or policies that would give Putin a reason to “rescue” ethnic Russians. Putin wants a firm grip on the post-Soviet space and to dominate the Near Abroad. This spells trouble for the future of Baltic democratic sovereignty and self-rule.
About the Author. Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
