Over the last several days, the Russian Federation launched one of the largest combined missile-and-drone attacks on Kyiv (and other Ukrainian cities) seen in months. Western reporting described hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles used, including Russia’s newer Oreshnik intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile system.
Per Reuters, Ukrainian officials claim that the Russian strikes killed civilians, damaged civilian infrastructure in the historic city, and injured many more. Left unsaid in Western reporting are the incidents that instigated the wave of reprisals by the Russian Armed Forces against Ukraine. Indeed, while the Russians have been bombarding Kyiv since the start of the war, the decision to attack with the mighty Oreshnik (against which there are currently no Western defenses) indicates an escalation that many are troubled by.
Tu-160 Bomber. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Moscow, meanwhile, argues that the attacks were legitimate within the rules of war. After all, Ukraine recently targeted Russian soft targets both in Moscow and in the Russian-speaking “breakaway province” in Eastern Ukraine known as Luhansk. So, the Russian attacks against Kyiv were caustic (and costly for Ukraine), but the argument from Western sources that they were unprovoked or unjustified doesn’t hold up.
Nevertheless, it is a tragedy (as is this entire war).
Further, Russian sources believe that their recent strikes against Ukraine will enhance deterrence against future attacks on Russia and their Russian-speaking Ukrainian territories. The Kremlin has also recently threatened “decision-making centers” and defense-industrial targets in Kyiv (and beyond) following Ukraine’s attacks on Russian soft targets over the last several weeks. It’s certainly escalatory from the Kremlin. It is not, however, unprecedented in the wider context of the war.
The Western Narrative on the Ukraine War
Mainstream Western media outlets frame the Russian attacks against Ukraine as deliberate terror bombing that purposely targeted civilians.
The claim is that Moscow wanted to break the will of the Ukrainian people by targeting their homes, metros, and the systems that civilians in Ukraine rely upon for everyday life. What’s more, Western sources believe that this is the final push before Russian President Vladimir Putin calls for negotiations.
At the same time, Western sources highlighted the massive deterioration in Ukraine’s air defenses. In the wake of the Russian attacks, given how vicious they were, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote what amounted to a love letter to US President Donald J. Trump and his administration, pleading for more weapons from Washington’s already depleting arsenal. Specifically, the Ukrainians requested more Patriot interceptors and other missile-defense systems because Ukraine cannot counter Russia’s large ballistic missile and drone salvos.
Tu-160 Bomber from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
These pleas, and the tone of reporting in Western media, negate earlier reporting that portrayed Ukrainians as self-sufficient. They also undermine the narrative, promulgated in the West, that Ukrainians had decisively shifted the war in their favor. If Kyiv was truly flipping the tables on Russia, why the panic from Zelenskyy after just one wave of attacks?
Anyway, Ukraine desperately needs stronger air defenses from the West. And the United States is not forthcoming with Ukraine simply because America blew through its stockpile of critical air defense systems in the Middle East recently. Now, Kyiv and European NATO members fear attritional imbalance in the Ukraine War. Whereas Russia can easily mass-produce relatively cheap drones and missiles, Ukraine relies far too much on costly, limited Western interceptor stockpiles.
The Russian Narrative on the Ukraine War
In Russia, commentators insist that the Kremlin had effectively been holding back in the war, refusing to risk horizontal escalation or not wanting the world to view Russia as butchers against a smaller force in Ukraine.
Those days, per Russian media, are gone. The Kremlin is preparing a more systematic campaign against Ukrainian command infrastructure that includes key political leadership, intelligence headquarters (where NATO personnel are likely secretly stationed), and other military-industrial facilities in Kyiv.
Russian sources believe that Ukraine used Western weapons, drones, and targeting intelligence to strike Russia and Russian-held areas. Moscow had previously warned their Western partners that such escalation by Ukraine (on behalf of NATO) would bring massive retaliation, and now Russia is making good on those previous threats.
More to the point, both Western and Russian sources agree that the war is entering a more decisive phase. In Clausewitzian terms, one would describe what is happening as Schwerpunktverlagerung, or the shifting of the weight of effort. It looks as though Russia is truly generating a decisive shift in the war effort, touted as an encouraging sign that victory is around the corner.
In the West, however, this shift signals that Ukraine needs immediate and increased levels of military aid to stanch whatever Russia is planning to do next.
And that aid from Washington, for the first time in years, is simply not forthcoming. In fact, Russian sources have highlighted the fact that the Trump administration has hesitated in condemning the recent Russian attacks on Kyiv.
The Strategic Reality
Ukraine is on its last legs. Failure to send aid to Ukraine will lead to serious battlefield setbacks that will likely cascade into strategic defeat. Since America literally cannot send aid, and is currently withdrawing key assets from Europe, both Ukrainian leaders and those in Europe are fretting that the Americans are walking away from Ukraine right before Russia brings the final blow down upon the besieged nation.
Whether this round of Russian violence breaks Ukraine is another question.
Clearly, though, Kyiv is worried–and Moscow feels emboldened.
About the Author: Brandon J. Weichert
Brandon J. Weichert is a Senior National Security Editor. Recently, Weichert became the editor of the “NatSec Guy” section at Emerald. TV. He was previously the senior national security editor at The National Interest. Weichert hosts The National Security Hour on iHeartRadio, where he discusses national security policy every Wednesday at 8 p.m. Eastern. He hosts a companion show on Rumble entitled “National Security Talk.” Weichert consults regularly with various government institutions and private organizations on geopolitical issues. His writings have appeared in numerous publications, among them Popular Mechanics, National Review, MSN, and The American Spectator. And his books include Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. Weichert’s newest book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase at any bookstore. Follow him via Twitter/X @WeTheBrandon.
