The Ukraine War Was Never Meant To Last This Long: When Russian troops crossed into Ukrainian territory in February 2022, they had been told by their leaders in Moscow that the so-called “special military operation” was likely to last a matter of weeks. Russian forces quickly advanced toward Kyiv from Belarus, and even Western intelligence was assessing that the Ukrainian capital was at risk of falling within 72 hours.
But what has happened since is remarkable. The war has been raging for more than four years now, and this month, Russia’s full-scale invasion officially surpassed the duration of World War I. The First World War lasted 1,567 days, from July 28, 1914, until the Armistice of November 11, 1918.
Despite years of fighting and hundreds of billions of dollars in aid from the West, the war continues – and even as Ukraine develops new capabilities thanks to its burgeoning domestic drone and missile industries, Russia is intent on satisfying its most maximalist demands.
Ukraine: Nobody Expected This War to Last
When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the “special military operation” in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, he claimed the objective was to “demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.” That kind of language has come and gone throughout the war, with the real objective being to claim Ukrainian territory and place it under Russian control – despite Putin claiming precisely the opposite in a televised address.
“Our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything on anyone by force,” Putin said.
Today, Putin demands that Ukraine cede its territory to Russia in exchange for peace.
Within hours of those comments, Russian forces had crossed into Ukraine’s borders from Russia and Belarus, and cruise missiles had begun striking military facilities across the country. Armored columns also pushed toward Kyiv in what was clearly an attempt to rapidly overthrow Ukraine’s government.
The Kremlin was confident at first, but the swift victory it expected never arrived. Russian state media outlet RIA Novosti accidentally published an article celebrating victory on February 26, 2022 – just two days after the invasion began – celebrating what it described as the “resolution of the Ukraine question” and the restoration of Russia’s territory and unity. The article was then removed, but archived versions of it can still be found online and prove that Moscow really did expect this to be a short conflict.
Even Western Intelligence Thought It Was Over
Western intelligence officials and analysts were also pessimistic about the prospects of Ukraine resisting a full Russian takeover. A Newsweek report from February 24, 2022, predicted that Ukraine’s capital could fall to Russian forces “within days” and that the country’s resistance would be “effectively neutralized soon thereafter.” The outlet cited U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, saying they expected Kyiv to be taken within days and Ukraine’s leadership to be replaced in about a week.
That, of course, did not happen. Instead, Ukraine’s resistance not only halted Russia’s advances but also successfully utilized Western munitions and support to keep fighting and prevent a full takeover. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy even rejected offers to evacuate the capital at the time, famously telling U.S. officials that he needed “ammunition, not a ride.”
Russian troops were eventually forced out of Kyiv Oblast entirely, but the war didn’t end there.
The Failures That Led to Today’s War
Then, in September 2022, Ukraine launched a rapid counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast and recaptured more than 4,600 square miles of territory in less than two weeks. Only two months later, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu ordered the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the western bank of the Dnipro River, abandoning Kherson – the only regional capital Moscow had captured since the start of the invasion.
Those victories for Ukraine set the stage for what we see today – a growing resistance powered by Western support and Ukrainian grit. Now, Ukraine is relying more on its own domestic manufacturing industries to support the war effort, and is building long-range missiles like the FP-5 Flamingo that are striking hundreds of kilometers into Russian territory on a regular basis.
What Happens Next?
Unlike World War I, which ended with the collapse of the German Empire, it’s hard to see an easily comparable turning point in Ukraine. Yes, Ukraine is taking the fight to Russia with long-range missiles, but Russia continues to pursue its objective of securing control over territories it considers to be Russian. Kyiv, meanwhile, insists that it will not accept a settlement based on Moscow’s maximalist demands.
Russia is escalating, and so is Ukraine. On the battlefield, Russia is making gradual advances, but its forces are also seeing diminishing returns at higher costs.
This was meant to be a short war, but if the trajectory holds, it could well become one of the longest and deadliest in modern history.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
