Shortly after ordering the drone strike that killed Iranian Qods Force chief Qassem Soleimani, President Donald Trump tweeted, “Iran never won a war but never lost a negotiation!” Trump was right then, but even more so now.
Trump’s chief accomplishment, unfortunately, has been to make Neville Chamberlain look like Winston Churchill.
Donald Trump Back in 2016. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The Iran Deal Is a Historic Mistake
Put aside the discrepancies between Iranian and American descriptions of the deal. The broad overview suggests that, at best, the deal replicates the worst aspects of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and, at worst, guarantees a future war.
The biggest problem with President Barack Obama’s nuclear deal was that it preserved Iran’s industrial-scale nuclear program and then put sunset clauses on the constraints under which the Islamic Republic would act. Trump’s deal might dilute Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, but it allows that stockpile to remain. New sunset clauses only reward Iran for running down the clock.
Prior to the Joint Plan of Action, President Hassan Rouhani admitted that Iran’s gross domestic product had contracted by 5.4 percent; decades of mismanagement and sanctions had left Tehran in a deep recession. Yet Rouhani and his team demanded an advance payment to sit at the table with the Americans, and Secretary of State John Kerry acquiesced. In effect, rather than use American leverage to dictate terms, Kerry and crew reduced leverage to cede advantage to Tehran.
Trump has now effectively become Obama version 2.0, with his Special Envoy Steve Witkoff performing even worse than Kerry.
The interim Memorandum of Understanding may only last for 60 days, but the United States is reportedly flooding Iran with at least $12 billion, if not more, during that period. While Republicans rightly criticized Obama’s delivery of “pallets of cash” to Iran during his dealings to release hostages, the cash that Trump now provides will enrich and reward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps while ordinary Iranians suffer.
President Donald Trump signs an Executive Order alongside Kid Rock in the Oval Office, Monday, March 31, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
Betrayal of Israel and a Missed Opportunity
Trump has made no secret of his desire to win a Nobel Prize, but peace and a cessation of short-term violence are very separate things.
One of the biggest mistakes Trump made was to treat Israel as a chit over which to negotiate rather than an independent party with its own interests.
During his first term, Trump did advance peace in the region by brokering the Abraham Accords. He might have expanded peace in two ways this term, but now undermines it. The reason Israel and Lebanon are engaged in their most active open negotiation in more than 40 years is that they both face a common adversary in Hezbollah.
But by acquiescing to Iran’s demand that a cessation of Israeli attacks on Hezbollah be part of the deal, Trump errs in two ways. First, he undermined the Lebanese government, for which Hezbollah represents a challenge to its sovereignty. Second, he affirms Iranian conspiracies that the Jewish state is just an American proxy.
A far better approach for Trump would have been to tell Tehran that if they have a problem with Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah, then they should negotiate directly with Jerusalem.
Betrayal of Gulf Arab States
One of the biggest intelligence failures of the current Iran war was the failure by analysts to understand the degree to which the Islamic Republic would target civilian infrastructure in Gulf Arab states. Iranian drones and missiles hit civilian airports, hotels, and residential complexes. Iranian missiles are precise; these attacks were not accidental.
While Iranians might argue that the released assets were Iran’s to begin with, Trump might have achieved far more diplomatic goodwill by pressuring banks to turn over those billions to deliver to the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain as reparations.
Indeed, Trump could have truly shown the Iranians the art of the deal had he given the frozen Iranian assets stashed in a Qatari bank to the Lebanese government as reparations to rebuild southern Lebanon. In one stroke, he could have kneecapped Hezbollah and strengthened Beirut, while focusing attention on the damage Iran had done to the region.
Get Ready for Renewed War
There is a school of thought among diplomats and peace activists that it never hurts to talk. Like military and economic strategies, however, diplomacy has a cost. Diplomacy succeeds when both sides want to put war behind them. This was the case with Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat. But Trump allows the Iranian regime to persist, which now doubles down on its militancy.
Trump might not differentiate between signing ceremonies for a successful deal and a poor agreement—after all, he is a man of superlatives. But if the region does not believe the agreement will succeed and faces an increased threat, it will act unilaterally. Israel drives more German submarines than the German navy does, for example, and the Emiratis have shown they are willing to use force to defend their interests.
The problem with existential threats is that they cannot be waved away with a magic wand. The problem with Trump is that he is fond of magic wands.
About the Author: Dr. Michael Rubin
Dr. Michael Rubin, a Director of Policy Analysis at the Middle East Forum, specializes in Iran, Turkey, and the Horn of Africa. His career includes time as a Pentagon official, with field experiences in Iran, Yemen, and Iraq, as well as engagements with the Taliban prior to 9/11. Mr. Rubin has also contributed to military education, teaching U.S. Navy and Marine units about regional conflicts and terrorism. His scholarly work includes several key publications, such as “Dancing with the Devil” and “Eternal Iran.” Rubin earned his Ph.D. and M.A. in history and a B.S. in biology from Yale University.
