Vladimir Putin, despite reports extolling his certain demise, is down but not out. Yes, there are nightly drone and missile strikes from Ukraine that are harassing Moscow and St. Petersburg. This has created fuel shortages and electricity outages.
The Russian propaganda machine is running out of good news to trumpet about the war. Crimea is even in disarray.
Putin Back in 2023 Creative Common Image
But Putin is far from being deposed or incapacitated. The Russian people usually thrive when under pressure. They can suffer through frustrations and indignities and still wage war.
The Russian dictator and his cronies must be distraught, though.
The conflict has gone poorly, Ukraine has seized the initiative, and ordinary Russians are wondering if the invasion has been worth it, even if they still support their dear leader.
Is It the End of the Road for Putin?
Nevertheless, some pundits believe that Putin could be on the way out. He may no longer be the legitimate ruler, which could lead to regime change.
Putin could be overthrown, assassinated, or die in office due to his reported health maladies. There might even be a civil war between rival factions of the military who would rather see the conflict against Ukraine end.
The Dictator’s Days Are Numbered
Forbes contributor Melik Kaylan is in the “Putin is headed for failure” camp. Kaylan thinks that the dictator’s days are numbered.
This fall from grace could start with an effective blockade of Crimea and even a Ukrainian invasion to take the peninsula back.
Kaylan believes that fuel shortages and power outages are enough to frustrate ordinary Russians to the point that they would like someone else to be president.
The Forbes writer even predicts there could be some kind of insurrection in the military, in which soldiers refuse orders, desert in droves, and launch an attack to wrest power from the Kremlin.
Putin in 2023. Russian Federation Photo.
Early Cracks in the Dam
Kaylan recounted the story of a Russian military blogger who had once been in Putin’s corner and had broadcast for years that the war was going well.
The writer, Aleksandr Lunin, even fought in the war and lived to tell how righteous the cause was.
Lunin, with Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest ploy to punish Russian civilians, recently changed his tune. Lunin began making videos demanding a personal interview with Putin.
He wanted to challenge the Russian dictator to tell the country about how the war is really going.
Rebels On the March
The rebellious military blogger even unearthed a video that showed a group of Russian soldiers who wanted to take action against Putin and perhaps even overthrow the dictator.
These actions naturally got Lunin in trouble with the authorities. The clip with the Russian combatants plotting a coup landed the blogger in jail, but not before millions of people saw it.
Troubled Times
Ordinary Russians are looking at scenes from footage posted to chat rooms that show a suffering public. Long gas lines have people up in arms.
The power outages are common. The food shortage has hurt Crimea, and tourism on the peninsula is down.
One shocking broadcast shows that Russian men are being kidnapped off the street to serve in Ukraine.
The new soldiers are lasting only hours, if not minutes, on the battlefield before they are killed or maimed.
Russian mothers and wives are shown crying bitterly at their losses.
War Can Lead to Revolution
Kaylan thinks this unrest will spread and could lead to Putin’s overthrow. Warfare in the 20th century was not kind to Russia or the Soviet Union.
World War One was a disaster that led to revolution. The war in Afghanistan, considered the Soviet version of Vietnam, was one failure that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
The Forbes analyst thinks the problem will start with the elites who surround Putin.
They were previously loyal to a fault, but the political winds have changed, and the dictator is seen in a weaker position.
What Would an Overthrow Require?
Some member of the small policy-making body or a rogue general could take matters into their own hands and rebel against Putin.
This coup could happen with a sudden burst of violence and would also allow people in the streets to rise up.
The Russian dictator is deeply protected from this, of course.
Kaylan is not sure that the rebels would be effective at first, but if these political problems continue, then Putin could be in trouble.
“Putin has a series of failsafe defenses, the equivalent of praetorian guards. He has his own bodyguard units, including a number of security militias such as the FSB, the internal ministry troops, and the national guard (Rosgvardia, with 300k troops), as well as 30,000 direct bodyguard elements, the police, and the like. He has used them to counteract each other over the years. But they also each represent a threat, with loyalty foremost to their own boss. A civil war among them is one scenario,” Kaylan wrote.
No Revolution Coming Now
I don’t agree with the whole rebellion, insurrection, coup, civil war, and removal theory against Putin. The Russian dictator controls everything.
He has a firm grip on the military, the intelligence apparatus, media, civil society, religion, politics, the economy, diplomacy, and even youth groups.
There are no dissident parties or individuals who could lead an uprising. All opposition figures are dead, jailed, or exiled to other countries. No political party is against him.
There is no outstanding group or figure that could lead a coup, and the media is compliant.
While there are more people who disapprove of Putin, the same civilians would tell you that there is no other alternative and no one better than the dictator.
Most modern-day Russians do not support revolution or any kind of upheaval in the streets. They value order and resist protest movements that could bring another group or individual to power.
We are watching Putin’s political future closely. He is at his weakest approval in many years. The war is unpopular, but no one could win an election or overthrow the government. While his downfall is intuitively appealing, it is unlikely in the short term.
About the Author: Brent M. Eastwood, PhD
Author of now over 3,500 articles on defense issues, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: A Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for US Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former US Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
