The ongoing military conflict with Ukraine has resulted in severe fuel shortages in Russia and Crimea, with increasing drone strikes cutting the Russian supply line to the Crimean peninsula.
Intensifying Ukrainian drone strikes and the resulting state of emergency have made Crimea a severe strategic and symbolic liability for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
U.S. Army soldiers assigned to 3-278 Armored Cavalry Regiment, Task Force Reaper, fire the 120mm cannon on an M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams tank during live fire training for exercise BRIGHT STAR 25 at Mohamed Naguib Military Base (MNMB), Egypt, Sep. 2, 2025. BRIGHT STAR 25 showcases our unified resolve and ability to respond to evolving challenges together. Strong defense partnerships like BRIGHT STAR build lasting capacity, improve interoperability, and send a clear message of deterrence to those who threaten (our partners) and regional peace and stability. (U.S. Army Photo by Joseph Kumzak)
An M1A2 Abrams main battle tank with 1-16th Infantry, 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division, conducts a Live Fire Accuracy Screening Test Sept. 28, 2025, on Novo Selo Training Area, Bulgaria. The LFAST is used to assess and confirm the accuracy of its firing system before live fire gunnery, ensuring the tank is ready for combat and its firing control systems are functioning correctly. Abrams live fire exercises increase the lethality of crews on collective tables while generating warfighting readiness and combat credible forces along NATO’s Eastern Flank. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. 1st Class Richard Perez)
By methodically targeting logistics, air defenses, and the land bridge, Ukraine has isolated the peninsula, leading to critical fuel shortages, power grid outages, and a severely disrupted tourist season.
Putin joked in 2014 that “little green men” were responsible for the takeover of government facilities, as Crimea was the ”jewel” in Putin’s attempt to rebuild the Soviet Union. Now it pulls him down like an anchor.
He can neither defend it nor resupply it as droves of Russians try to get out of Crimea and away from the fighting.
Ukraine Has Turned The Peninsula Into An Island
Ukrainian long-range drone and missile strikes have turned Crimea from a secure rear base and “unsinkable aircraft carrier” into an exposed and costly bottleneck.
And these drone attacks, while wildly successful, are just the latest wrench the Ukrainians have thrown into the Russians’ works.
Since the initial days of the invasion in 2022, Kyiv has set out on a path designed to degrade and isolate Russian forces based on the strategic Black Sea peninsula.
It started with Moscow’s Black Sea Fleet. In early 2022, Ukrainian troops sent the flagship of the fleet, the cruiser Moskva, to the bottom with a Neptune anti-ship missile.
The Ukrainians, without even a Navy to speak of, chased the Russians out of the Black Sea headquarters in Crimea after it was struck by Ukrainian Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, forcing them to relocate what remained of their fleet to Novorossiysk and other Russian naval bases in the Black Sea.
A U.S. Army M1A3 Abrams tank fires a round during a live fire training exercise at Smardan Training Area, Romania, April 19, 2017. The combined exercise had U.S. and Romanian armored crewmen taking commands from a Romanian commander to prove the cohesion between units in support of Operation Atlantic Resolve, a NATO mission involving the U.S. and its European Allies and partners in a combined effort to promote regional stability and deter aggression in Europe. (U.S. Army photo by Army Pvt. Nicholas Vidro)
Attacks on the Saky airbase and the Kerch Bridge that connected Russia to Crimea ensued.
The drone attacks on Russian supply columns, oil and gas infrastructure, and power stations have taken a huge toll on Russia. Currently, nearly half of Crimea is without power.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s 40-day planned operation against Russian targets to “influence the aggressor state in order to press for an end to the war,” is working.
Ukraine Doesn’t Need To Re-Take Crimea, Just Render It Unusable
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense said earlier this month that the R-280 route (Novorossiya) has been brought under Ukrainian fire control. The R-280 is a crucial 500+ km overland supply line connecting Rostov-on-Don (Russia) to occupied Crimea.
The highway runs parallel to the Sea of Azov, passing through the occupied Ukrainian cities of Mariupol, Berdiansk, and Melitopol before entering the Crimean peninsula.
The ministry described that route as the primary land corridor for fuel, ammunition, and equipment for Russia’s southern forces. The route is a major focal point for Ukrainian drone operations. Sustained, targeted attacks on logistics trucks and fuel tankers have reportedly caused a massive drop in traffic and severe fuel shortages in Crimea. It has been characterized as “The Highway of Death.”
In addition to the gas and oil attacks, Ukraine conducted coordinated strikes against the Osa air defense system, five coastal radar stations in Crimea, Russian command locations, UAV facilities, weapons shelters, and logistics vehicles across the peninsula.
The drone campaign’s intensity has forced Russian occupation authorities to heavily restrict civilian and non-essential commercial traffic on several sections of the highway, diverting vehicles to smaller, secondary roads.
Retired U.S. Army General Ben Hodges considers Crimea the decisive, strategic “fulcrum” of the war in Ukraine. He argues that whoever controls the peninsula will ultimately win the war.
By rendering the peninsula unusable as a military stronghold, Ukraine can force a Russian withdrawal without needing to engage in a difficult and costly direct ground assault to retake it, he says.
The Pressure On Putin Now To Seek A Peace Deal Is Rising
Ukrainian drone attacks are raising the cost of the war and pressuring Russian President Vladimir Putin, but they have not forced him to seek peace. Instead of pursuing negotiations, Putin’s administration has responded with escalated counterstrikes and shifts in domestic policy.
However, with the attacks on Russia growing in intensity and effectiveness, Russian citizens are feeling the effects of the war, with long lines at gas pumps as attacks have caused gas shortages. Airport travel has been significantly affected, and citizens are turning against the war, seeking peace.
He continues to insist that Russia is winning the war and Ukrainian resistance is about to collapse.
Russia Is Losing Too Many Troops in Ukraine
The war has turned in favor of Ukraine in recent months, in no small part due to Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces, who have unleashed devastating drone attacks on Russia and even the capital, Moscow.
Since April, the Russians have lost more ground than they have taken, although for months, their gains have come at a glacial pace. But even more importantly, Russia’s personnel losses, totaling about 1.4 million and averaging 30,000-35,000 per month, are now outpacing the military’s ability to replace them with new recruits.
This “mobilization gap” is severely impacting frontline operations and forcing the Kremlin to consider increasingly drastic measures to sustain its war effort.
The recruitment of voluntary contract soldiers for the Russian military dropped by about one-third this spring. High casualty rates, combined with economic strain from rising financial bonuses, are making it harder to attract fighters.
Because recruitment targets are falling significantly short of losses, frontline Russian units are badly understaffed.
Reports from media outlets have outlined how this mobilization deficit has forced the Russian military leadership to cannibalize elite units and weigh the political risks of enacting a new wave of mass mobilization, which the population opposes.
The Drone War Is Wearing Russia Down
The Ukrainian plan is not to try to retake it as they tried to do in 2023, but to isolate it, cut it off, and bleed Russia dry.
Ukrainian General Mykhailo Zabrodsky, who helped plan the 2023 offensive, said in 2023 that the plan was to cut off and retake the land.
“After the lack of success [in the counteroffensive]… the idea of isolating Crimea has returned again. Today, the number and quality of the Ukrainian armed forces’ strike drones allow the implementation of such a plan.”
This plan, in combination with Ukrainian maritime operations blockading Crimea from the Black Sea, is likely to cause “serious pain for the Russians”, he added.
Ukraine’s isolation of Crimea by conducting a “logistical lockdown” of Russian forces and attacking their ability to resupply their troops has resulted in seizing the initiative.
Frontline units are being stripped of air defenses as the Russians are moving them to protect Moscow and oil refineries.
Many analysts believe that, for the first time, Putin is vulnerable. They believe that Putin wouldn’t survive the loss of Crimea. And with Russia taking huge hits all over, the prospect of losing Crimea is now very real.
About the Author: Steve Balestrieri
Steve Balestrieri is a National Security Columnist. He served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer. In addition to writing on defense, he covers the NFL for PatsFans.com and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America (PFWA). His work was regularly featured in many military publications.
