According to reports, America has warned the government of NATO-member Poland that Russia is planning an armed “provocation” against the Central European nation in order to test the alliance’s solidarity and the members’ willingness to fulfill their Article 5 obligations of the transatlantic charter.
The exact scenario is unclear, but the most plausible is that Polish critical infrastructure could be targeted by Russian missiles and drones. Possible targets could include power stations and other facilities that, if shut down, would disrupt Poland’s ability to respond to any kinetic attack.
A U.S. Army M1 Abrams, assigned to 4th Battalion, 6th Infantry Regiment, 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division, fully emerges from the tank firing point to engage the simulated enemy at Novo Selo Training Area, Bulgaria, March 5, 2025. 1st Armored Division, a rotational force supporting V Corps, conducts training with engineers and tank operators in the European Theatre to maintain readiness and instill fundamental Soldier skills that are vital in maintaining lethality. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Kyle Kimble)
CINCU, Romania – U.S. Army Soldiers of 1st Battalion, 66th Armored Regiment, 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, setup their M1 Abram Tanks during Getica Saber 17, July 10, 2017. Getica Saber 17 is a U.S.-led fire support coordination exercise and combined arms live fire exercise that incorporates six allied and partner nations with more than 4,000 Soldiers. Getica Saber 17 runs concurrent with Saber Guardian 17, a U.S. Army Europe-led, multinational exercise that spans across Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania with more than 25,000 service members from 22 allied and partner nations. Image Credit: US Military.
These attacks could also be accompanied by “simulated air strikes” that would prompt Poland to activate its air defense network, allowing Russia to map its locations and identify gaps in its radar coverage. A Polish intelligence source also said that one of the highest-risk scenarios that Russia might attempt would be a “hybrid attack in the border region”.
At the same time, Russian military units could cross the border into Poland from either the Russian territorial exclave of Königsberg or the territory of Moscow’s stalwart ally, Belarus. The same Polish intelligence source said that units crossing into Poland could include both Russian and Belarusian soldiers.
Washington is reported to have issued these warnings to Warsaw on more than one occasion, reported sources close to Karol Nawrocki, the Polish president. The revelation that these warnings had been issued was initially reported by the Polish news agency Onet.pl. They have been carried in many outlets worldwide.
A source close to President Nawrocki said the US “systematically informs Poland about ever-new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO’s eastern flank, from which Poland is by no means excluded”.
An Attempt to Cut Off Aid to Ukraine
One possible goal of a Russian attack is reported to be escalating tensions with NATO to the point where some alliance members would be unnerved. The price that Moscow would then demand to de-escalate would be for the Western alliance to suspend all military aid to Ukraine.
Such a provocation, the US also warned, could be launched against Poland and/or some of its Baltic state NATO allies in a matter of months. The Polish security services have also assessed that any Russian action might not be some subtle act that leaves room for ambiguity. Instead, it could be a conventional attack, such as a Russian ground unit moving across the NATO eastern flank.
A report by Ukrainskaya Pravda states that, in the event of this kind of direct incursion, Russia could offer the explanation that its troops “got lost” due to GPS signal disruptions, or that they were involved in a fictitious “rescue mission” prompted by some kind of helicopter emergency.
This potential script recalls the reports during initial Russian incursions into the Donbas region of Ukraine in 2014. The standard line in those days was that these units “crossed the border (surprise, surprise) by accident”.
No Decisive Response
In various reports on this issue, both US and Polish intelligence sources postulate this potential chain of events: First, Washington will pressure Poland to not launch a decisive counterattack against these Russian units. The by-now overused phrase “we need to avoid the risk of escalation” is the justification.
Russia would then be betting that Poland would not open fire on Russian or Belarusian soldiers. They would be forced by the US to negotiate with Russia (and also possibly Belarus) rather than launch a military response, Polish sources told Onet.
In this version, the Russians would eventually return home and claim a “victory” against NATO because they were not met with an appropriate response. The alliance, they would claim, is a paper tiger.
Another possible variant is that Russia could occupy some portion of Polish territory, as it did in 2008 in Georgia. Moscow would then declare it would only withdraw from Polish territory if the NATO nation pledged to cease all support for Ukraine in its war against Russia.
In late June, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski had already warned that Russia may organize a “false flag operation” to create the rationale for an attack on a NATO alliance member.
The overall assessment, however, is that these plans are not a sign of Russian tactical brilliance or some brilliant cunning in the special operations sphere. The reality is that staging such an attack is one of the only options remaining for Russian President Vladimir Putin, given his shrinking military resources.
Lacking the ability to achieve victory in Ukraine and the manpower to launch a full-on conflict with NATO, his gamble is that this kind of small-scale provocation might frighten the West into handing him over what he cannot achieve on the battlefield is about all he has left in his toolbox.
About the Author: Reuben F. Johnson
Reuben F. Johnson has thirty-six years of experience analyzing and reporting on foreign weapons systems, defense technologies, and international arms export policy. Johnson is the Director of Research at the Casimir Pulaski Foundation. He is also a survivor of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He worked for years in the American defense industry as a foreign technology analyst and later as a consultant for the U.S. Department of Defense, the Departments of the Navy and Air Force, and the governments of the United Kingdom and Australia. In 2022-2023, he won two awards in a row for his defense reporting. He holds a bachelor’s degree from DePauw University and a master’s degree from Miami University in Ohio, specializing in Soviet and Russian studies. He lives in Warsaw.
