Ukraine’s recent drone campaign has successfully shaken the population of Russia and instilled a sense of uncertainty and anxiety in some of the most ardent Kremlin propagandists, as the country now has to cope with an ongoing fuel shortage. Many analysts and experts in the West have read this as a sign that the tide is finally turning in the war. Not only can Ukraine fight Moscow on equal terms, but it might just win against the Russian war machine. Unfortunately, according to more sober analysts, this conclusion may not only be premature but also quite dangerous, as Ukraine still faces a long, difficult uphill battle.
Russia vs. Ukraine: Fighting an Uphill Battle
Such analysis came from the former Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the potential frontrunner in Ukraine’s next Presidential elections, Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. John Ryan, 555th Fighter Squadron F-16 Fighting Falcon pilot, prepares to take off for a routine training flight at Aviano Air Base, Feb. 17, 2022. The flights will support NATO’s enhanced air policing mission; integrate with allies and partners in the Black Sea region in an increased defensive posture along NATO’s border and to reinforce regional security. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Brooke Moeder)
In a recent article for The Telegraph, Zaluzhnyi argues that, contrary to optimistic reporting, the war has not yet swung in Ukraine’s favor.
“Modern warfare no longer rewards tactical victories in the way it once did,” he wrote. “Advances in drone technology, precision strike capabilities and surveillance have transformed the battlefield, making decisive breakthroughs extraordinarily difficult for either side.” Many observers tend to view the war through a narrow lens, focusing on individual successes or failures, rather than viewing the wider strategic picture.
Ukraine, Zaluzhnyi points out, is fighting a war of attrition. More importantly, it is fighting a war of attrition against Russia, a country with vastly more manpower and resources than Ukraine has. “Every tactical gain now comes at an extraordinary cost,” he writes. “Positions can be taken, but holding them, reinforcing them and evacuating the wounded has become increasingly difficult under constant drone surveillance. Success on the battlefield is measured in meters rather than miles, and often at a price that bears little relation to its strategic value.”
Unlike previous wars, the current frontline in Ukraine is more static, with gains occurring much more slowly and often at great cost.
Russia Has Not Won, But it Hasn’t Lost Either
The former Commander-in-Chief acknowledges that Ukraine has made significant progress with its recent drone campaign, but points out that Russia still retains the ability to strike back, often to greater effect.
“Ukraine’s increasingly effective strikes against Russian logistics and critical infrastructure have imposed real costs on Moscow,” Zaluzhnyi writes, “But these attacks are expensive, technologically demanding and ultimately reciprocal.
Edwards AFB F-16C 88-456 with its special 50th Anniversary Fighting Falcon tail flash flies over the desert of Southern California. This Viper is assigned to the 416th Flight Test Squadron, flown by outgoing 416th FLTS Commander Lt. Col. Michael Pacini on his last flight with the Skulls. (Air Force photo by Todd Schannuth)
Russia retains the ability to strike back with equal or greater force. Neither side can rely on this form of warfare to produce a decisive strategic outcome.” Air campaigns rarely force a decisive outcome. The true decider of the war will likely come from the ground war or from diplomacy.
The war, as many analysts have noted, has reached an odd stalemate, not in the sense that the front line isn’t moving—it is—but in the sense that neither side can move it quickly enough to achieve its goals.
“Russia lacks the military capacity to conquer Ukraine outright. Equally, Ukraine does not currently possess the means to liberate all occupied territory by force alone. The military balance has become one of mutual denial rather than decisive victory.” While Moscow has yet to achieve any of its stated goals, this alone does not constitute a defeat for the Kremlin.
As Zaluzhnyi notes, Russia still holds a considerable amount of Ukrainian territory and is no closer to giving it up than it was four years ago.
The War Will Be Won By Resilience
Ukraine has thus far succeeded in preventing Moscow from accomplishing its goals, but has not yet achieved anything close to a strategic victory. “Kyiv has prevented Russia from achieving its principal aims and has inflicted severe damage on the Russian economy and military,” Zaluzhnyi adds, “Yet it remains heavily dependent on Western financial assistance, military equipment and technological support while facing mounting domestic pressures of its own.”
Russia, he notes, understands this and has adopted a strategy not of rapid maneuver and territorial gains, but of a slow, grinding war of attrition to wear down Ukraine’s military, economy, and fighting spirit. With this in mind, Russia is far better equipped to fight a protracted war than Ukraine is. Zaluzhnyi notes that even if Kyiv were to have its Patriot interceptor stock replenished, it would not offset Russia’s advantage in medium- to long-range missiles.
Western support is one of the key variables determining the war’s outcome, according to Zaluzhnyi.
Despite the growth the country has achieved over the last four years, Ukraine cannot fend off the Russians alone.
He, along with many others in Ukraine, is seeing signs that NATO lacks the political will to do what needs to be done to win the war. The determining factor is which side is more strategically resilient and which side can bear the economic and psychological burden of a prolonged war.
Despite the invaluable help that NATO has provided Ukraine thus far, there have been signs over the last four years that the alliance is not prepared for a military confrontation with Russia, not in terms of combat capabilities, but in terms of political will.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
