As Ukraine intensifies its strikes deep into Russia, Washington sees a potential opening to revisit stalled peace negotiations, seemingly hopeful that pressure on Moscow will convince the Russian leader to make concessions.
During the recently concluded NATO summit held in Ankara, Turkey, American President Donald Trump sounded optimistic, saying that Ukrainian strikes are “an escalation, but it’s also an escalation that can help lead to an end.”
President Donald J. Trump and President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. White House Photo.
President Donald Trump poses for a photo with Russian president Vladimir Putin in the Billy Mitchell Room at Joint Base Elmendorf Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, Friday, August 15, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
Hope, it is said, springs eternal, and other world leaders signaled their optimism that Ukraine’s strikes against Russia could force a quicker end to the war than the current trajectory would.
“I believe that the window is there for us to keep pushing and giving Russia a clear message that we are willing to start negotiations,” Czech President Petr Pavel explained to The Telegraph, a British newspaper.
But, he added, “Russia will have parliamentary elections in September. President Putin will hardly declare mobilization before, but once the elections are over, the window will shrink.”
The Kremlin sounded a definite note, however. “We do not view the situation through rose-tinted glasses, and President Putin is fully aware of this, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said to reporters.
“At the same time, there is a certain duality in the U.S. position: unlike the Europeans, the United States maintains a desire to facilitate a move toward a peace process. They may be mistaken or wrong at times, but that desire strikes us as sincere.”
Ukraine’s strikes “will result in our having to establish a larger security zone — a larger buffer zone,” Peskov said.
“Consequently, stoking tensions and taking actions that drive escalation will in no way contribute to the peace process.”
A Worsening Domestic Fuel Situation
The Czech president’s comments reflected the increasingly dire fuel situation within Russia, where long lines for gasoline and diesel have become the norm.
Reporting by Mediazona, an independent Russian outlet, shows that in 56 of Russia’s regions fuel sales have been curtailed either by local authorities or by gas station chains.
In Crimea, annexed by Russian forces since 2014, fuel sales have been suspended completely, with exceptions carved out for military and local law enforcement.
So desperate are Russian authorities to alleviate the domestic fuel shortage that the country has begun importing fuel from abroad, including from India and Belarus.
In another sign of how acute the fuel pinch inside Russia has become, Russian regulators approved an abbreviated refining regime for fuel sold domestically and lowered environmental standards.
Gasoline sold in Russia may contain up to 150 parts per million of sulfur, a level that is fifteen times higher than the legal limit of gasoline sold in India, China, and Europe.
Additionally, the level of aromatic hydrocarbons is a carcinogenic oil byproduct with significant long-term health risks.
Ukraine’s Long-range Sanctions
The shortage in Russia has been a direct result of what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously dubbed his country’s “long-range sanctions” regime — a concerted effort by Kyiv to hit the Kremlin where it hurts the most: its coffers. Russia is one of the world’s top oil-producing countries and has used its enormous oil and gas wealth to finance the hugely expensive war effort in Ukraine.
But cognizant of the revenue stream, Ukrainian forces have leveraged long-range drones and a burgeoning crop of cruise missiles to target oil and gas refineries and transportation infrastructure around Russia.
Russian social media has erupted with photos and videos of energy infrastructure ablaze across the country. Refineries as far away as Omsk, in Siberia, have exploded as a consequence of the Ukrainian strikes.
Attentions Diverted
Distracted by other conflagrations around the globe, Washington put the war in Ukraine on the back burner, focusing its attention instead on the Middle East and the as-yet-unfinished war with Iran.
But the fuel situation in Russia has cast the spotlight back on the Kremlin, forcing the Russian leader to acknowledge the worsening fuel crunch.
Speaking to a Russian journalist, Putin made an unusual admission and addressed the consequences of the strikes directly.
“As for the attacks on critical infrastructure in general, and energy infrastructure in particular, they are, of course, creating problems,” the Russian president said during an interview. “That is obvious,” he added.
But Putin admitted that, although “we are currently seeing certain shortages… they are not critical.”
Nonetheless, Russia is grappling with an acute shortage, and one that is both unpopular and has also forced a breach in the insulation previously enjoyed by the Russian public from the war across the border in Ukraine.
Whether it is enough to pull the Kremlin back to the negotiating table — or whether the Russian leader will concede any of his war aims — remains to be seen. But for now, at least, momentum is clearly on Kyiv’s side.
About the Author: Caleb Larson
Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines in the Donbas and writing about its civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.
