Russia may be pushing to make more gains in the Donbas ahead of what seem like inevitable peace negotiations in the coming months, but according to the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, the country is rapidly losing its troops.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe said on Wednesday, July 16, that Russian soldiers survive only an estimated 20 to 30 minutes on the battlefield before they are wounded or killed.
What Ratcliffe Said
A soldier from the Idaho Army National Guard, Charlie Company, 2-116th Combined Arms Battalion, 116th Cavalry Brigade Combat Team makes Idaho National Guard history with the first firing of a Javelin anti-tank missile.
In a historic moment of training for the Idaho Army National Guard, soldiers from Charlie Company, 2-116th Combined Arms Battalion, 116th Cavalry Brigade Combat Team, fired the FGM – Javelin portable anti-tank missile on Sunday while conducting a series of field training exercises scheduled for the week on the Orchard Combat Training Center ranges.
Speaking at the Defense and Innovation Summit in Pennsylvania, Ratcliffe described how Russian casualty rates have been climbing to record levels for several months.
“Our intelligence is consistent with some of the open-source reporting you may have seen in Ukraine,” Ratcliffe said. “The average life expectancy of a Russian recruit right now, arriving on the battlefield in Ukraine, is estimated to be between 20 and 30 minutes.”
“That’s because AI-powered drones have gotten to be such specialized, low-cost killing machines,” he continued.
An M1A1 Abrams tank from 1st Tank Battalion, 3rd Marines, maneuvers before a live fire assault at Shoalwater Bay Training Area, Queensland, Australia, on May 25, 2001 for Exercise Tandem Thrust 2001. Tandem Thrust is a combined military training exercise involving more than 18,000 U.S., Australian, and Canadian personnel who are training in crisis action planning and execution of contingency response operations.
(DoD photo by Sgt. Bob O’Donahoo, Australian Army. (Released))
Russia’s Manpower Problem Is Going
The comments reflect two problems for Russia: a manpower shortage and a war that is becoming increasingly difficult to win even against a smaller military.
On the manpower side, Moscow is not only losing soldiers quickly but also struggling to replace them quickly.
While Moscow continues to recruit tens of thousands of contract soldiers every month through a combination of generous signing bonuses and regional incentive programs, it is becoming increasingly clear that those recruits are being consumed as quickly as they arrive on the front lines.
Ratcliffe referred to a body of open-source reporting and intelligence that shows this.
One of the most detailed assessments available comes from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which published a report earlier this month examining more than 20,000 documented Ukrainian strikes.
Researchers Seth Jones and Riley McCabe concluded that Russia is currently incurring around 30,000 casualties per month – both killed and wounded – while recruiting only about 27,000 new personnel over the same period.
An M1A2 Abrams tanks, assigned to 1st Battalion, 16th Infantry Regiment, 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division, maneuver into fighting position during a battalion live-fire range during Agile Spirit 19 at Orpholo Training Area, Georgia, August 9, 2019. AgS19 is a joint, multinational exercise co-led by the Georgian Defense Forces and U.S. Army Europe which incorporates a command post exercise, field training and joint multinational live fires. (U.S. Army photo by Staff Sgt. True Thao)
In other words, Russia is losing more troops than it is replacing.
The report also estimated that the casualty ratio has shifted dramatically in Ukraine’s favor, hitting almost 8-to-1 during the first half of this year, compared to around 2-to-1 or 3-to-1 for much of the rest of the war.
Those figures partly explain why Russia is relying largely on small infantry assaults rather than large mechanized offensives.
Moscow depends on poorly trained replacement troops who are committed to combat almost immediately upon arrival in the theater.
Recruits have been described previously as being pushed into the “meat grinder” rather than being trained to engage in mechanized and strategic assaults.
The other reason that isn’t happening feeds into what Ratcliffe was saying during his recent comments: Ukraine has changed the war dynamics using drones and other equipment.
AI and Drones Are Equalizers
The conversation occurred in the context of U.S. leadership and artificial intelligence, with Ratcliffe discussing how new technologies are changing modern warfare and even serving as an equalizer between large and small military forces.
“And it’s why we’re now four and a half years into that conflict, and the takeaway is that the mastery of technology and these emerging technologies is every bit as important as military strength.
And so it’s why an inferior force, four and a half years later, has held off the superior force of Russia against Ukraine, and even more telling with respect to that is, if you look, the advancements that Russia made into Ukraine initially.
Right now, Russia occupies 20% of Ukraine,” he said.
“When I came in as CIA director 18 months ago, Russia occupied 19% of Ukraine. So the pace of their advance has stopped, as Ukraine’s mastery of emerging technologies, in this case drone warfare and asymmetric warfare, is such a great equalizer and shows why we have to be leading on this in all respects for us to maintain our place on the global marketplace.”
A New Era Of Warfare
The war in Ukraine is effectively a glimpse of the future. Kyiv has proven that cheap and AI-assisted drones costing hundreds or thousands of dollars have been used to destroy tanks and armored vehicles; they have disabled artillery systems, and they have even destroyed air defense assets and aircraft worth millions.
That change has profound implications for every military on earth and, in turn, for every future war.
For the United States, the lesson now is that technological superiority is not measured by how many expensive fighter aircraft or aircraft carriers it has.
Those things are important and can facilitate victory in a future conflict, but only if supplemented by new AI-assisted systems and drones.
Rival powers like China are heavily investing in autonomous systems designed to overwhelm more sophisticated forces with mass-produced drones, while smaller states now have an opportunity to begin inflicting disproportionate damage using commercially available technology.
For the United States to remain ahead, it must build these new technologies at pace – and over time, as the world adapts, the manpower problem Russia is experiencing may not even matter.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, producing and editing analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
