After nearly two weeks of strikes on Iranian sites by the United States, which included President Donald Trump threatening to strike Iran hard, what followed instead was an unofficial ceasefire, in which the U.S. stopped striking Iran for a few days, and Iran also refrained from strikes.
That ended earlier this week, when Iran, in a surprise, launched ballistic missiles at a base in Jordan with U.S. service members on it, according to the Associated Press, although the U.S. says all of the missiles were successfully intercepted.
F-15EX Eagle II’s from the 40th Flight Test Squadron, 96th Test Wing, and the 85th Test and Evaluation Squadron, 53rd Wing, both out of Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, fly in formation during aerial refueling operations with a KC-135 Stratotanker from the 370th Flight Test Squadron out of Edwards Air Force Base, California, May 14. The Eagle II’s participated in the Northern Edge 21 exercise in Alaska earlier in May. (Air Force photo by Ethan Wagner)
An F-15EX Eagle II, assigned to the 142nd Wing, taxis on the flightline before take-off during the official Unveiling Ceremony for the new fighter jet at the Portland Air National Guard Base, Oregon on July 12, 2024. The 142nd Wing will be replacing the F-15 C/D model Eagles with the new F-15EX Eagle II models. (National Guard photo by John Hughel, Oregon Military Department Public Affairs)
Israeli Air Force 69th Squadron – Operation New Order: F-15I jets eliminating Hezbollah and Hassan Nasrallah.
And then, on Thursday, the U.S. launched what it called a “heavy wave of strikes” on Iran. This followed the U.S. and Saudi Arabia teaming up to strike Iranian-allied militias in Iraq, which meant the Saudis’ entry into the conflict.
Inside the “Heavy Wave”
CENTCOM said Wednesday that the U.S. had struck “dozens” of targets associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This, per CENTCOM, included command centers, missile and drone facilities, and surveillance sites. The message included video footage of explosions at what was described as IRGC sites.
The goal of the strikes, CENTCOM said, was to “further diminish threats” posed by the IRGC to the U.S., its allies, and commercial shipping in the Middle East.
So, with war seemingly back on, what comes next?
A Two-Week Plan
The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that Adm. Brad Cooper, who heads Central Command, has come up with a “two-week plan” to escalate attacks in Iran.
The Journal story painted a picture of the president “huddling” with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, after attending the ceremony in Dover, Del, when the caskets of four soldiers killed in the war arrived.
Cooper, who is not nearly as high-profile a figure as Caine and Hegseth, was in attendance as well.
And Cooper, the Journal reported, has prepared a plan for a “punishing air campaign” that could last up to two weeks.
The idea is that while previous strikes have failed to deter Iran, a stronger, more sustained wave of them might provoke a different response.
The Joint Chiefs’ Caine, the newspaper noted, is “more cautious,” and mindful of the consequences of such actions.
The Journal also said that Israel, which has not participated in the most recent strikes, could join in, should a major series of strikes take place.
The report noted that Cooper’s more expansive proposal is one of several options the president can choose from.
Trump could go with the long-range plan, despite reported concerns that the U.S. munitions stockpile is running low, or adopt a more limited approach aimed at forcing a return to the negotiating table.
One unnamed official told the Journal that the next stretch of strikes will be larger than the “tit-for-tat strikes” of recent weeks, and will cover a larger area.
And the Journal noted that critics in Congress are warning that a new campaign of strikes could widen and deepen the war.
However, a war powers resolution in the U.S. Senate, meant to limit the president’s authority to continue the war, failed on Thursday, with Republicans in the upper chamber sticking with the president.
“Punish the Aggressor”
How will Iran respond to the latest strikes, and the threat of more of them?
According to CNBC, which cited Iranian state media, the IRGC has threatened to “punish the aggressor,” and that countries allied with the U.S. would “receive a harsh response.” The IRGC also reaffirmed that the regime retains control over the Strait of Hormuz.
An Unpopular War
The war, at any rate, remains very unpopular with American voters, with midterm elections just over three months away.
The AP released a poll this week, conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, showing that 64 percent of adults view the war as “not worth fighting.” That includes 87 percent of Democrats, 68 percent of independents, and 37 percent of Republicans.
The poll was conducted over a four-day period that ended on July 27, the day before the pause ended.
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
