In recent weeks, reports have suggested that a deal on a governance structure for the Strait of Hormuz was close, or that such a framework had been reached. However, no such deal has been announced, as the war reached its six-month mark this week.
So where do things stand now?
(Aug. 8, 2017) The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George H. W. Bush (CVN 77) at sea during exercise Saxon Warrior 2017, Aug. 8. Saxon Warrior is a United States and United Kingdom co-hosted carrier strike group exercise that demonstrates allied interoperability and capability to respond to crises and deter potential threats. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Theron J. Godbold /Released)
Nimitz-class carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) transits the Atlantic Ocean while offloading munitions via helicopter to the world’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), June 27, 2025. Gerald R. Ford, a first-in- class nuclear aircraft carrier and deployed flagship of Carrier Strike Group Twelve, incorporates modern technology, innovative shipbuilding designs, and best practices from legacy aircraft carriers to increase the U.S. Navy’s capacity to underpin American security and economic prosperity, deter adversaries, and project power on a global scale through sustained operations at sea. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist Seaman Jarrod Bury)
According to a Reuters report this week, mediators in the talks, from Qatar and Pakistan, are “stepping up efforts” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran “agreeing to draw up a list of conditions” to restore traffic.
Qatar’s prime minister, the Reuters report said, traveled to Tehran this week and met with Iranian leaders, where the Qataris urged Iran on “the importance of respecting freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with international law.”
The Qatari leader, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, is both prime minister and foreign minister. Qatar and Pakistan have been mediating talks and were instrumental in the “Memorandum of Understanding” reached in June, which brought about a temporary stop to the war.
The View From Tehran
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, per Reuters, called the talks “creative,” but urged the U.S. to stop making economic threats, such as the “Economic D-Day” push announced earlier this week.
“Putting diplomacy back on track isn’t impossible. It hinges on the U.S. understanding of one simple fact: pressure doesn’t work,” the prime minister said in a social media post this week.
In a subsequent statement, Araghchi described the threats of new sanctions by the U.S. as “state terrorism.”
Iran is preparing the conditions it would require to reopen the Strait, but it’s not clear what they are. As noted by Reuters, “in the past Iran’s conditions have included an end to the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, compensation and removal of sanctions.”
The Actual Facts in the Strait
Bloomberg News on Friday cited a Goldman Sachs report which stated that Strait of Hormuz traffic is now flowing at two-thirds of pre-war levels.
Total exports through the Strait have risen to 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, up from 5 to 6 million a day at pre-war levels, but still several million below the pre-war peak.
“The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers, and in ship-to-ship transfers, shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict,” Goldman analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in a note. An increase in such flows, the Goldman analysts added, may “moderate the upside to crude oil prices even if Mideast disruptions last longer.”
As of Friday afternoon, Brent crude oil was trading at just over $88 a barrel after crossing the $100 mark multiple times in recent months. Before the war, however, prices were in the high 60s.
The Upper Hand?
An Axios report Friday, meanwhile, stated that the U.S. feels it has gained “the upper hand” in the Strait of Hormuz.
The report states that while the Strait has been Iran’s “most powerful card” since the start of the war, the military “has steadily eroded Iran’s leverage over the crucial waterway.”
And that attitude starts with the U.S. president.
“That sucker is open. The Iranian response is very mild. They don’t want us to go back at them. That’s the whole ball game. The rest doesn’t matter,” Trump said in an interview with Axios on Thursday.
Axios also laid out something of a secret history of the war and the closure of the Strait.
According to the account, which cited Israeli officials, General Alireza Tangsiri, then the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, had begun the push to close the Strait in the first hours of the war. He also deployed Naval mines in the Traffic Separation Scheme (TSS), the Strait’s main commercial waterway.
An Israeli airstrike later killed Tangsiri, the IRGC Naval commander.
Then came the Memorandum of Understanding, which was to reopen the Strait, although it never quite did.
So, per the Axios story, this kicked off a series of efforts: a push, along with the UAE, to move U.S. ships through the southern part of the Strait, a demining effort, and the lifting of a blockade on Iranian ports.
“While the number of ships that cross the strait — and the amount of oil exported from it — remain well below pre-war levels, the reality on the ground has improved,” the Axios report said. “Iran has lost much of its control over the strait, and the U.S. military is effectively controlling most of it, U.S. officials said.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
