Six months after President Donald Trump predicted a short war with Iran, Washington is ramping up economic pressure in a bid to push Iran into concessions.
U.S. Continues Sanctions and Blockade
President Donald Trump participates in the swearing-in ceremony for Administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Mehmet Oz, Friday, April 18, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
Donald Trump speaking with supporters at a campaign rally at Veterans Memorial Coliseum at the Arizona State Fairgrounds in Phoenix, Arizona. Credit: Gage Skidmore.
Large-scale U.S. strikes have given way to a naval blockade and an expanding sanctions campaign designed to deprive Tehran of oil revenue, access to dollars, and international trade. Iran’s economy is increasingly under pressure, but its leadership is still refusing to accept Washington’s terms.
“We don’t want to speak to them. We’re not looking to meet or anything,” Trump told reporters Thursday, while insisting that the Strait of Hormuz was open and Iran was in “deep trouble.”
Iranian Exports Plummet
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said exports and imports have fallen by nearly 35 percent due to U.S. sanctions and the blockade, Reuters reported Saturday. Annual inflation reached 66 percent last month.
Even Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has publicly acknowledged the economic strain, calling for the government to address “inflation, unemployment, management of prices and the market for goods and services.”
The Plan to Isolate Iran
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent launched “Operation Economic Outcast” on Monday, describing it as an effort to sever Iran’s remaining financial connections. On Friday, the Treasury Department proposed cutting the UAE branch of Egypt’s Banque Misr off from U.S. correspondent banking.
“We also warned that Iran’s enablers cannot continue to enjoy access to the U.S. dollar,” Bessent said.
Is the Strait of Hormuz Open?
Iran still holds leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, given that its coastline sits on the northern side of the narrow waterway.
The White House said Friday that U.S. forces have helped usher almost 1,500 commercial vessels through the waterway carrying 750 million barrels of crude, while restricting Iranian oil exports since Washington reimposed its blockade in July.
But describing Hormuz as simply “open” obscures how far traffic remains below normal levels.
Only seven commodity vessels passed through on Thursday, according to preliminary Kpler data cited by Reuters, compared with 17 a day earlier and a 10-day average of 15. Before the war, roughly 130 vessels crossed the strait each day.
The naval arm of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, a listed terror group by the U.S. government, has rejected Trump’s claims that the strait is open as an “obvious lie.” They continue to insist that ships still require Iranian permission to enter the strait.
Iranian Regime ‘Never Been Weaker’
Trump nevertheless reposted an image this week declaring “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED 2026,” an unmistakable reference to President George W. Bush’s much-criticized 2003 Iraq War appearance beneath a “Mission Accomplished” banner.
“This has been a fiasco,” Richard Haass, former State Department director of policy planning, told The New York Times.
Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, reached the opposite conclusion.
“I believe President Trump is winning the confrontation with the regime in Iran,” Dubowitz told the outlet, arguing that the Islamic Republic “has never been weaker.”
The American side has also faced high costs. Eighteen U.S. military personnel have been killed, more than 750 have been injured, and more than 50,000 troops have been deployed during the conflict. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth claims the war has cost the United States more than $37.5 billion so far.
High energy prices are also putting pressure on Washington. Trump announced Friday that the United States had reached a sweeping agreement to develop Venezuela’s oil reserves, granting the U.S. access to more than 65 billion barrels. The announcement came as the administration faces pressure over gasoline prices and the continuing disruption of Gulf oil supplies.
Earlier this week, Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said his country was “fully prepared” for more sanctions, noting that a two-year plan to handle such pressures was in the works.
On Saturday, the Associated Press reported that power in Tehran has allegedly consolidated around hard-line clerics and military figures preparing for a drawn-out confrontation. The regime has certainly been adept at circumventing Western sanctions historically, particularly through secondary companies linked to China.
Iran is now less militarily capable and more economically isolated than before the war began. However, the regime remains in power, and the situation seems set to drag on with no precise end in sight. Nor is there any guarantee the U.S. will at least have neutralized the threat of a nuclear Iran if and when a deal is struck.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
