This week, indications suggest Russia and Ukraine may be returning to the diplomatic table, with American envoys reportedly set to visit both Moscow and Kyiv this weekend.
But another report Friday shows that Russia might be planning a new mobilization, possibly after Russia’s parliamentary elections later in September.
Lancet Drone from Russia. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
For PBS NewsHour, Simon Ostrovsky reported on a possible plan by Russia to send more soldiers to war, after Russia has reportedly been losing about 40,000 men a month.
Ostrovsky cited social media posts showing that some men say they were “tricked and drunk” when they enlisted in the military.
There have been various reports in recent months stating that Russia signed people up for military service using deceptive means. T
The correspondent describes those tactics as “men being pulled off the street by the authorities in legally questionable recruitment drives.”
“Until now, Russia has mainly used financial incentives to get men to join the military, sometimes offering sums equivalent to a year’s salary to get them to sign a contract,” the PBS report said. “But with increasingly high casualty rates on the front lines due to Ukraine’s newfound drone dominance, even those high numbers aren’t the same draw they once were.”
The Wall Street Journal reported last month on a round of military exercises Russia recently held to gauge readiness for a possible mobilization.
The shortage of men has given Russia a choice, according to the report: Reach a peaceful settlement now, or find new ways to get new soldiers to sign up.
One option is a draft, or “mobilization,” as it’s known in Russia. The Russians did that around the time the war began but haven’t revisited the idea since.
That 2022 mobilization marked the first time Russia had instituted a draft since its predecessor, the Soviet Union, did so during World War II.
Mobilization Time?
Kirill Martynov, the Editor-in-Chief of the independent news outlet Novaya Gazeta Europe, predicted in the PBS report that Russia could launch a mobilization effort as soon as this fall.
“The mobilization, I believe, is very likely in September or October of this year.
This is a very dangerous moment both for Ukraine and for Europe,” Martynov told PBS. “So that means, if Putin wants to put more pressure on Ukraine, he basically needs more soldiers.”
The journalist added that he believes that “basically the goal of this war for now is continuation of the personal power of President Putin.”
The PBS story even quoted a Russian “draft dodger,” named Augustine, who has gone to Tbilisi, Georgia, to avoid conscription, and said that he fears going back into Russian territory for that reason.
“Second wave of mobilization, I think, is definitely happening after election day, yes,” Augustine told the outlet. “The situation looks pretty bad for the Russian army, in my opinion. So I know how it works in Russia. They can take you for no reason. They will find a reason to bring you to the front. So I’m pretty scared, but I’m here. I feel safe here.”
Ostrovsky also reported that Russia has a “digital registry of all male citizens” who are eligible to serve, which makes it more difficult than it once was for such men to avoid conscription.
A Denial From Putin
Meanwhile, the Moscow Times reported this week that Putin himself has denied that a mobilization is planned for the near future.
“It’s complete nonsense. It’s an information attack on Russia,” the Russian leader told Tuesday, in what were reportedly his first public comments on the rumor that such a move was planned. The Kremlin has separately denied it. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last month that “the Ukrainian authorities are spreading all of this.”
“Their regime is trying to destabilize our country ideologically,” Peskov added in this August comment.
However, Putin had also issued a similar denial before the 2022 draft, the Moscow Times noted.
“Some experts caution that another mass mobilization would encounter logistical hurdles and fail to address challenges on the front line,” the Moscow Times reported. “At the same time, observers point to the fact that Putin’s ‘partial’ mobilization order remains in effect, suggesting Putin might not need to formally announce a new draft.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
