Amidst the deepening rift between Trump and Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian President announced that Kyiv would resume its strikes against Russian oil infrastructure.
After brief Starlink disruptions and claims that the U.S. was withholding intelligence from Ukraine, tensions between Zelenskyy and his American counterpart rose.
Putin July of 2024. Image Credit from Russian Government
Putin Is Speaking Image from Russian Federation Government End of 2024
Despite Trump’s efforts to broker a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv, neither side seems interested in the proposal at the moment.
Last weekend, the U.S. claimed an energy ceasefire had been enacted, but both Russia and Ukraine denied agreeing to it.
Zelenskyy nevertheless honored the agreement for three days, but after continued Russian strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Kyiv has resumed its attacks against Russian oil infrastructure.
Ukraine Resumes Strikes Against Russian Oil
On the morning of October 15, Ukrainian drones attacked a refinery in Russia’s Ryazan Oblast, hours after Zelenskyy announced Kyiv’s decision to resume attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.
The refinery is situated some 300 kilometers south of Moscow, and Russian news sources reported a large fire at the facility.
The facility has been attacked multiple times by Ukraine since 2025 and is responsible for around 4.9% of Russia’s total refining output.
Repairs usually take around two to three weeks to return the facility to normal operations.
A Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, confirmed that Kyiv was responsible for the attack as Washington pressures Ukraine to halt its attacks on oil refineries.
The strike occurred as tensions between Washington and Kyiv continue to decline.
Zelenskyy expressed frustration with the U.S. after Trump announced he would buy Russian diesel. Ukraine was further frustrated with the U.S. after Trump announced an unexpected ceasefire, which neither side seemed intent on honoring.
Although Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would honor the ceasefire, Russia continued to launch massive attacks against the country’s energy and fuel infrastructure.
Furthermore, the Ukrainian President complained that the U.S. was withholding intelligence on Russia’s ballistic missile attacks (a claim that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha disputed), and claimed that the temporary disruption with Starlink was politically motivated.
Amid these grievances, Zelenskyy said he would not sell out his country and would continue to wage the war as he sees fit.
The Growing Rift Between Washington and Kyiv
Trump has also recently expressed frustration with Zelenskyy.
“Trump is really mad. He feels Zelensky is taking the U.S. for granted,” A U.S. official told Axios on October 11.
The President blamed Ukraine for rising global oil prices after its attacks against Russia’s fuel and oil infrastructure.
As the administration tries to lower U.S. fuel prices, it has little choice but to turn to Russia for diesel fuel.
Kyiv’s attacks affect not only Russia’s domestic fuel supplies but also the nations that rely on Russian oil and gas, including the U.S. Furthermore, Trump has frequently expressed frustration with Zelenskyy for not accepting a deal with Russia. “He could have made many deals, and for some reason, he never does,” the President told reporters on October 10, adding that Ukraine should “get a new leader who can make a deal.”
As tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine worsen, Europe is growing worried about a complete breakdown between Washington and Kyiv. Several European officials, who are by no means fans of Trump, urged Zelenskyy to tone down his rhetoric against the American President. “It might be true, but it doesn’t always need to be said out loud,” one official told the Financial Times.
Although the U.S. no longer provides direct financial aid to Ukraine, America provides Ukraine with weapons and intelligence and is a major defensive partner with Europe.
If America decides to pull out of Ukraine, Europe would have to provide Kyiv with all of its defensive needs. As major European powers are embroiled in financial and political turmoil, the EU lacks the means to meet Ukraine’s needs without U.S. assistance.
American Support For Ukraine Will Likely Continue
Fortunately for Kyiv, the chance that Trump will actually end all U.S. support for Ukraine is nil.
Although Trump has a lot of control over America’s foreign policy, the president is still surrounded by various intelligence agencies and government bureaucrats who are all aligned against Russia.
U.S. foreign policy is rigid and highly resistant to change.
Despite the diesel deal with Russia and Trump’s rhetoric against Zelenskyy, the U.S., as a whole, still views Russia as a hostile entity. Shifting U.S. support away from Ukraine and in favor of Russia would require a much greater push than what we are seeing right now.
Furthermore, if the Democrats win the midterm elections, the House or Senate will curtail any punitive measures Trump can take against Ukraine.
Negative sentiment toward Kyiv will likely vanish as soon as Trump leaves the White House.
That being said, Zelenskyy is not making his situation easier with his rhetoric. Kyiv has significant support and sympathy in Europe and the U.S. Antagonizing one of your main supporters is not a wise strategy.
Recently, Zelensky has made similar blunders with Poland and South Korea. Western support for Kyiv is unlikely to waver any time soon.
However, if Zelenskyy keeps stepping on other people’s toes, Ukraine’s major backers may look for another, preferable individual to lead Kyiv in his stead.
This is not to say that a regime change in Kyiv would be moral or preferable, but that Zelenskyy should be careful, lest another color revolution in Ukraine suddenly emerge calling for his removal.
About the Author: Isaac Seitz
Isaac Seitz, a Defense Columnist, graduated from Patrick Henry College’s Strategic Intelligence and National Security program. He has also studied Russian at Middlebury Language Schools and has worked as an intelligence Analyst in the private sector.
