Key Voters Blight GOP Hopes in Latest Pre-Election Poll – Key voter groups remain critical of U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic management as the midterm elections approach in under three weeks.
A new Harris Poll for the Guardian found that 58% of Americans said the economy was getting worse, up 10 percentage points from the final comparable poll of Joe Biden’s presidency.
President Donald Trump greets President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, Friday, February 28, 2025, in the West Wing Lobby. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
President Donald Trump signs an Executive Order alongside Kid Rock in the Oval Office, Monday, March 31, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Molly Riley)
It’s bad news for the Republican Party, which is campaigning to retain control of Congress at next month’s midterms.
Economy Woes
According to the poll, conducted before the news broke that inflation rose to a higher-than-expected 3.7%, almost three-fifths of Americans felt pessimistic about the U.S. economy. That included 65% of independent voters, and 64% of rural respondents.
Republicans also felt glum about America’s economic prosperity, with just 28% of GOP voters believing the economy is on the right track. Only eight months ago, 49% of Republicans were optimistic about the economy.
Recession worries were also high among the poll’s 3,993 respondents, with three-quarters concerned about a forthcoming recession. 61% of respondents wrongly believe the U.S. is already in recession, which is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The economy grew 2.2% between April and June 2026, the last quarter for which data is currently available.
The poll asked voters what they felt were the most important issues ahead of the midterm elections, allowing respondents to select more than one option. Two-thirds (67%) said gas and grocery prices were top issues, and three-fifths (60%) also cited living expenses. More than half of respondents (52%) cited healthcare costs as a concern.
According to the poll, Americans’ biggest non-cost concern is foreign affairs (44%). The job market (38%), environmental health (36%), and technological advancements (35%) were also among the top issues.
Who Can Fix It?
Nearly everyone agreed that America is facing an affordability crisis, including nearly all Republicans (96%). Americans remain divided over who had a solution to the cost-of-living crisis, with Democrats (71%) more likely than Republicans (59%) to say that their own party could solve the ongoing issues.
Republicans (26%) were less optimistic that either party had a solution than Democrats (17%). Half of independent voters also felt neither the GOP nor the Democratic Party could solve America’s affordability crisis, with 14% siding with the Democrats and 10% with the Republicans.
Rural Americans Struggling
A demographic considered a core base for Trump also voiced economic concerns. 41% of rural Americans said neither party could solve the affordability crisis, compared to 35% of suburban respondents and 27% of urban voters. A similar number (40%) of rural Americans said they were living in “survival mode,” where one surprise bill could bankrupt them. This compared with 35% of urban and 27% of suburban Americans.
Rural respondents were also more critical of the Trump administration on gas prices, with 46% of rural Americans blaming the U.S. government for rising costs at the filling station. This compared with 28% of Republicans saying the same. GOP voters instead blamed oil companies, the Iranian government, and natural economic fluctuations for rising gas prices.
Trump’s Problem
Although he is not on the ballot, President Trump needs a favorable midterm result to ensure the last two years of his presidency include a favorable cohort of lawmakers. Polls suggest the Democratic Party is almost certain to make that prospect unrealistic, with Democrats leading by an average of 8.6 percentage points on the generic congressional ballot.
While the GOP can feel somewhat relieved that independents are unconvinced the Democrats can solve the country’s economic issues, it will also worry that Republican voters and rural Americans are pessimistic about the economic outlook. Democrat voters are more likely to vote in the forthcoming elections, meaning the GOP will need to rally its core base to stand any chance of retaining Congress. A disengaged base makes that hope far less likely.
The Harris Poll conducted the poll across the United States from Thursday, 24th September, to Saturday, 3rd October. The poll surveyed 3,993 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of +/- 1.9 percentage points.
About the Author: Shay Bottomley
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist. He has written for the Western Standard, Business Insider, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo.
