The Democrats look set to win control of the U.S. Senate in today’s midterm elections, according to the latest analysis from the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
In its final prediction, published Monday, November 2, the election forecaster moved the closely contested Michigan Senate race to “Lean Democrat” from “Toss-Up,” increasing the likelihood that the Democratic Party will take the four seats it needs to control the chamber.
The news comes even after Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens endorsed Republican candidate Mike Rogers over her party’s controversial nominee, Andul El-Sayed.
The news comes as millions of Americans head to the polls, and as data suggests that early turnout — which typically favors Democrats — has surged over previous elections.
Cook Political Report Changes Final Senate Prediction
In its Monday analysis, the Cook Political Report said Democrats are in a good position to take control of both chambers of Congress.
Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors editor for Cook Political Report, said that the numbers show El-Sayed gaining additional support, particularly among Democrats who were divided earlier in the campaign.
The numbers could well suggest that the Republicans have become so unpopular in this election that even a controversial Democrat who cannot maintain the full support of his party in the state, and who is embroiled in scandals over allegedly anti-Semitic comments, could still win.
A New York Times/Siena College poll conducted over the weekend also put El-Sayed ahead of Rogers by a substantial 11-point margin.
However, campaign officials from both parties have told reporters that they expect the final result to be closer.
The same report predicted that Democrats could gain between three and six Senate seats in total, putting them within reach of a majority in the chamber.
According to Cook, seven races could determine control of the chamber.
Ahead of the elections, Republicans control 53 seats, and Democrats and the independents who caucus with them hold 47. Democrats therefore need a net gain of four seats to take control.
Michigan May Go Democrat
Even despite recent controversies, Michigan looks set to elect a Democrat this time around.
Michigan has become one of the most closely watched Senate elections in the country, after Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to El-Sayed, publicly endorsed Rogers on Sunday, November 1.
The decision, which came as a surprise after Stevens endorsed the Democratic candidate, prompted massive criticism from high-profile Democrats, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and even former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
Schumer described the endorsement as “despicable,” and other Democrats have accused Stevens of undermining her party’s chances of winning the Senate — which appears to have been the entire point.
However, Cook’s final analysis suggests that the endorsement is unlikely to change the results, and that El-Sayed remains in the lead.
In fact, the controversy may have even helped the Democrats, with reports claiming that El-Sayed’s campaign raised more than $2.4 million on Sunday following the announcement.
After the endorsement, El-Sayed continues his campaign, focusing heavily on the cost of living and health care.
In contrast, Rogers has continued a Republican campaign highlighting El-Sayed’s history of making extreme comments.
Democrats Could Even Win Republican Strongholds
Michigan is not the only state giving Republicans trouble. Competitive Senate elections are taking place in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, with some Democratic candidates set to win in elections where Democrats have failed for decades.
In Kansas, for example, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton is challenging Republican Senator Roger Marshall and faces a realistic chance of winning, despite the state not having elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
In Texas, progressive Democrat James Talarico is also challenging Republican Ken Paxton, and polls suggest the historically Republican state could elect a Democrat this time.
And even if Democrats lose some of the more closely contested races, other models suggest they have several potential routes to take home a Senate majority tonight.
Nate Silver’s model, for example, gives Democrats an 80% chance of winning the Senate and a 95% chance of winning the House.
Schumer Says Democrats Feel Optimistic
Speaking to reporters after casting his ballot in Brooklyn on Tuesday, Schumer said he was confident Democrats would regain control of the Senate. Schumer described his own mood as “nauseously optimistic” but acknowledged that nothing is certain.
“We don’t want to count our chickens before they hatch,” he said, per NBC.
Schumer also said Democrats will work to challenge President Trump if they win control of Congress, suggesting the Republican president will face increased challenges — and hostility — during the final two years of his presidency.
Republicans, meanwhile, are still warning their supporters about the possibility of major losses, with Senator Ted Cruz warning that Democrats could win statewide elections unless Republicans turned out in sufficient numbers.
“If our people show up tomorrow, we win,” he said.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, and he produces and edits analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at 19FortyFive and National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
