Russia’s pace of progress in Ukraine has slowed dramatically as high casualty rates have made it difficult for units to sustain attacks, Oleh Apostol, commander of Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces, said on Friday.
“It has slowed down considerably,” he told reporters as quoted by Ukrinform. “If the enemy captures one tree line in a month, that is hardly an operational success,” he added.
Tu-95. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Tu-95 Bomber Russian Air Force. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Between October 14 and November 11, Russia gained a net 41 square miles of Ukrainian territory, compared with a net loss of 14 square miles during the preceding four weeks. Its gains fell to just six square miles in the latest week.
175 Recent Clashes
The Ukrainian General Staff said there were 175 clashes in the last 24 hours, including 13 Russian attacks in the Kostiantynivka sector.
Ukrainian forces also claimed to have repelled 11 attacks in the Pokrovsk sector. Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Moscow controls Kostiantynivka, one of Ukraine’s fortified cities in the eastern Donetsk region, during meetings with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on Thursday.
ISW’s November 12 assessment identifies evidence of at least 41 Ukrainian positions in and around Kostiantynivka since September 1, undermining Russia’s claims.
Putin also said it was time to halt fighting to allow civilians to be evacuated. “Let’s do the same thing we did in Oleshky and invite representatives of the foreign press, including American journalists,” he said as quoted by Ukrainska Pravda.
Ukraine Holds Extensive Kostiantynivka Positions
The Institute for the Study of War said it had obtained evidence showing Ukraine had at least 41 positions inside and outside the city since September 1.
In Oleshky, Ukraine and other sources accused Russia of using the pause in fighting to swap forces and bring in reinforcements. “It’s understandable why they want this in Kostiantynivka,” Ukrainian presidential adviser Dmytro Lytvyn said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia’s delegation in Abu Dhabi claimed it controlled half of the territory that Ukraine currently controls in the Donbas.
But Ukraine’s negotiators responded, “We have video evidence and everything else confirming that we control these territories.” U.S. officials supported this view, he said.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said Russia suffered 54,400 personnel losses in October compared to 46,230 in September. Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, said his forces accounted for 16,796 of those Russian personnel losses.
The General Staff said Russia suffered 16,130 personnel losses between November 1 and 7, which was described as a new “absolute record in this war.”
Putin Failing on the Battlefiel
In recent months, Russia has lost over 40,000 soldiers – killed or seriously injured – every month. Preliminary reports suggest more than 50,000 were killed or injured in October.
Putin is trying to destroy Ukraine’s fighting spirit by attacking civilians in preparation for winter, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Wednesday.
An analysis by the Financial Times concluded that at least 450,000 Russians had died as a result of the war by summer 2026.
The paper used leaked data from Russia’s statistics agency Rosstat.
This figure is likely to include some civilian deaths.
However, Rosstat said on November 1 that there had been no breach of the database or leaking of classified information.
The Economist said in late October that 1.4–2.1 million Russian military personnel have been killed or injured since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
Russia expert Janis Kluge told the Financial Times that Russia has frequently failed to meet its monthly recruitment targets of 35,000. “It’s clear that the rate of recruitment is not enough to maintain that level of loss,” he said.
Prisoner Deal Agreed in Principle
On Wednesday, Russia and Ukraine agreed to a prisoner of war swap in Abu Dhabi. “We were able to finalize the terms of the prisoner-of-war exchange,” Kushner said at a Friday meeting in Dublin.
He said both sides had agreed to include European representatives in the next round.
However, the Kremlin’s Peskov said Moscow would decide whether to increase the scale based on how willing Europe is to help find a resolution.
European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas during the “informal” Dublin meeting said that a ceasefire should be agreed upon first. “If we start to talk about what Russia is asking regarding the security architecture, we actually walk into the traps that Russia is setting us,” she said.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
