The Strait of Hormuz will not fully reopen to traffic unless the US meets Iran’s demands, the Islamic Republic said on Monday.
The busy maritime corridor, which usually carries around one-fifth of the world’s oil trade, has been the focus of recent talks.
The 354th Fighter Wing conducts a 75-fighter jet formation at Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska, Aug. 12, 2022, in honor of the U.S. Air Force’s 75th Anniversary. This capabilities demonstration included F-35A Lightning II, F-16 Fighting Falcon and F-22 Raptor aircraft from across Pacific Air Forces. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Gary Hilton)
A Polish F-16 pilot awaits instructions from his crew chief after completion of a Baltic Air Policing sortie at Šiauliai Air Base, Lithuania, Aug. 30, 2017. The Polish air force recently relinquished control of the NATO Baltic Air Policing mission to the U.S. Air Force for the forty-fifth rotation of allied protection of the sovereign skies of the Baltic region since Baltic Air Policing operations began in 2004. (U.S. Air Force photo/ Tech. Sgt. Matthew Plew)
A spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry said Tehran would not reopen the Strait unless the United States met its conditions.
“It is up to the U.S. side to stop and make amends for its illegal and destructive actions,” Esmail Baghaei announced on Monday, noting that America had imposed a blockade on Iranian ports.
In April, U.S. President Donald Trump estimated that the naval blockade was costing Iran $500 million a day.
Iran has called on the U.S. to lift its blockade, pay compensation for war damage, scrap economic sanctions, and unfreeze seized Iranian assets.
Trump Signals A Possible Compromise
Speaking to Axios on Sunday, President Trump described the current U.S. strategy as “low-keying it” with Iran. “It will work out. It always works out. It’s like a chess game,” he claimed.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Trump would be open to ending the war without a nuclear deal if the Strait were fully reopened.
Aimen Dean, director of operations of Cruickshank & Dean Global Intelligence and a former MI6 agent, wrote via X: “If this report is true, it marks a monumental foreign policy blunder. Exiting without a nuclear deal is obviously a strategic failure, but it also effectively drives the final nail into the coffin of 80 years of American global maritime dominance and dismantles the free trade international order hard-won under Reagan.”
Hormuz Closure Keeps Fuel Prices High
The deadlock over the closure of the strait has also been a central flashpoint in the current war. It also means that energy prices remain a focus in the American political debate ahead of midterm elections in November – something President Trump is clearly looking to mitigate. The average price of diesel fuel in the US now stands at over $5 a gallon amid the current conflict, compared to around $3.72 last August.
However, high U.S. domestic fuel production has helped cushion the shock of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply issues following the Hormuz closure, the American Petroleum Institute reported last week.
Oman Plays A Key Role
Iran is also holding talks with Oman over traffic in the strait, which connects the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. A temporary shipping corridor was reportedly among the options under consideration, although Tehran still says any full reopening would hinge on its talks with the U.S.
Oman, which is strategically located at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, has been a significant actor in Middle East negotiations for decades.
Unlike many states in the region, it is viewed as stable, having been ruled by the same dynasty for hundreds of years, and has traditionally supported a two-state solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict, and has not joined the Abraham Accords.
Trump’s War Aims Have Already Shifted
When President Donald Trump announced “major combat operations” against Iran at the end of February this year, major joint U.S.-Israeli strikes targeted key military, government, and infrastructure sites and killed a slew of top Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
In February, Trump initially urged opponents of the regime to “take over” the Iranian government. By late March, The New York Times was already reporting that U.S. officials had redefined what they meant by regime change in Iran, with Trump stating, “We’ve had regime change, if you look, already because the one regime was decimated, destroyed. They’re all dead,” and that “The next regime is mostly dead. And the third regime, we’re dealing with different people.”
Despite the delay in announcing any possible agreement, Polymarket traders are currently predicting that the renewed naval blockade on Iranian ports will end in the coming months.
Markets are estimating a 64% chance that Washington will have announced an end to the blockade by September 30.
About the Author: Georgia Gilholy
Georgia Gilholy is a journalist based in the United Kingdom who has been published in Newsweek, The Times of Israel, and the Spectator. Gilholy writes about international politics, culture, and education.
