More than 57 million Americans have already voted in the November 3 midterm elections as of Monday afternoon, and early turnout is surging in several key battleground states.
According to figures published by the University of Florida Election Lab, the number of ballots cast before Election Day surpassed 57 million by Monday afternoon, and ABC News reported early on Election Day that the figure was approaching the approximately 58 million early votes recorded during the 2022 midterm elections.
Donald Trump. Image Credit: The White House.
The figures should concern Republicans, because Democratic voters have typically accounted for a larger share of early ballots cast in states that report party registration.
Given the polls, most of which show Republicans losing the House of Representatives, Republicans now face the possibility that they will need a significant turnout advantage by the end of election day to overcome Democrats’ early lead.
Democrats Lead Republicans In Early Voting
According to an analysis published by The Guardian before election day, registered Democrats account for approximately 43% of early voters in states that report party affiliation.
Republicans make up 31%, and 25% are unaffiliated voters.
The figures show a 12-point advantage for Democrats, though they cover only states that provide party registration data.
Nonetheless, it is a significant lead, and the issues are working against the Republicans this year.
President Donald Trump hosts a bilateral meeting with President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador, Monday, April 14, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)
On October 30, the Associated Press also reported that over 43 million Americans had already voted. At that point, about 10 million more had voted than at the same stage of the 2022 election.
The Democrats’ advantage this year is significant, but the data has limitations. For example, registered Democrats can still vote for Republican candidates, and vice versa.
Millions of independent voters also participate in elections without declaring a party affiliation.
And, crucially, Republicans have historically been far more likely to vote on Election Day.
So while the real damage won’t be known until Election Day is over, the data so far suggests Republicans are at a disadvantage in virtually every corner of the data.
Record Turnout in Key Senate Battlegrounds
Interestingly, some of the largest increases in early voting have occurred in states where the Republicans are defending Senate seats.
In Texas, for example, about 7.7 million people voted early, about 40% of registered voters.
The figures exceed the state’s previous early-voting record in a midterm election.
The state has attracted a lot of media attention this year, with its closely contested Senate election between Republican Ken Paxton and progressive Democrat James Talarico.
Turnout is increasing substantially in states Republicans would normally expect to win comfortably, too, suggesting that a combination of Democratic enthusiasm and Republican disinterest could spell disaster for the GOP on Tuesday night.
According to the analysis published by the Associated Press, early voting in South Carolina was also 83% higher this year than at the comparable stage in 2022.
In Maine, too, early voting increased by 44%. In Kansas, early voting increased by 34%, and in Michigan, by 32%.
It’s clear from the figures that voters in states that have historically stuck with Republican candidates, sometimes not electing Democratic senators for decades, are unusually engaged in this year’s elections – but it remains to be seen if this is a result of the so-called “blue wave” or perhaps Republicans turning out early, too.
North Carolina
North Carolina has also seen a massive increase in early voting this year, with more than 2.8 million people casting ballots before Election Day.
On November 2, WFAE reported that the figure is up 30% from the 2022 midterms and up 25% from 2018.
But for Republicans, it’s not great news, as they accounted for just 26% of early voters, down from 31% four years earlier.
Unaffiliated voters make up 35% of early voters, up from 30% in 2022.
It’s bad news for Republican Michael Whatley, who faces former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper in the race for the seat vacated by Thom Tillis.
An unusually high turnout may also influence competitive congressional races and the closely watched state Supreme Court election.
Republicans Need An Election Day Turnout Surge
Despite the early voting figures, Republicans still have a chance to overcome the Democrats’ advantage — but it would require a huge number of Republican voters and independents willing to vote Republican to turn out today.
Republican voters have historically been more likely to vote on Election Day, so the final results could still look very different.
The problem?
Every major national poll puts the Republicans behind on a generic congressional ballot.
Despite a month of campaigning by President Donald Trump, it looks like the Republicans will struggle to mobilize enough voters to avoid devastating losses.
About the Author: Jack Buckby
Jack Buckby is a British researcher and analyst specializing in defense and national security, based in New York. His work focuses on military capability, procurement, and strategic competition, and he produces and edits analysis for policy and defense audiences. He brings extensive editorial experience, with a career output spanning over 1,000 articles at National Security Journal, and has previously authored books and papers on extremism and deradicalization.
